使用因子分析方法研究吉林前郭地震前的地震活动异常
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摘要
本文用2006年吉林前郭MS5.0级地震前后震中附近的地震资料,选择反映地震活动时、空、强特征的地震频次N(ML≥3.0)、b值、η值、A(b)值、Mf值、Ac值、C值和D值8个参量进行因子分析。这些参量之间有一定的相关性,各参量在不同时段的变化各有所异,预报效果并不理想。根据因子分析得到反映地震活动时、空、强特征的综合指标Wfa值,该指标在前郭MS5.0级地震前出现明显异常变化,表明综合指标Wfa值可以较好地反映地震活动的异常特征。
The factor analysis were made by the data near the seismic epicenter of Qianguo MS5.0 earthquake and selecting the parameter N(ML≥3.0),b,η,A(b),Mf,AC,C and D value which had relation to the earthquake time,space and strength.There were some relativities among 8 parameters and each one was different in distinct stages,but the earthquake time,apace and strength synthetic index Wfa can be gained by the factor analysis.Wfa value showed obvious anomalies before Qianguo earthquake.It showed that the synthetic index Wfa can reflect the anomalous characteristics of the seismicity.
The factor analysis were made by the data near the seismic epicenter of Qianguo MS5.0 earthquake and selecting the parameter N(ML≥3.0),b,η,A(b),Mf,AC,C and D value which had relation to the earthquake time,space and strength.There were some relativities among 8 parameters and each one was different in distinct stages,but the earthquake time,apace and strength synthetic index Wfa can be gained by the factor analysis.Wfa value showed obvious anomalies before Qianguo earthquake.It showed that the synthetic index Wfa can reflect the anomalous characteristics of the seismicity.
引文
[1]陆远忠,阎利军,郭若眉.用于中短期地震预报的一些地震活动性参量相关性讨论[J].地震,1999,19(1):11-18.
[2]王炜,林命週,等.使用因子分析方法研究九江5.7级地震前的地震活动异常[J].地震,2006,26(3):9-15.
[3]唐启义,冯光明.实用统计分析及其DPS数理系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2002,367-373.
[2]王炜,林命週,等.使用因子分析方法研究九江5.7级地震前的地震活动异常[J].地震,2006,26(3):9-15.
[3]唐启义,冯光明.实用统计分析及其DPS数理系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2002,367-373.
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