1998年1月10日张北-尚义6.2级地震前的区域地震活动异常和预报
|
摘要
1998年1月10日张北-尚义发生了6.2级地震，这次地震前区域地震活动显示出了明显的异常特征，中期预报效果比较成功，对于这次地震没有作出短临预报，这既有地震孕育过程的复杂性和地震预报的高难度问题，也存在一定程度的预报技术思路问题。近几年来作者对在北京西北的晋、冀、内蒙古交界地区形成的以地震活动条带为代表的多项地震活动异常给予关注，现反思张北-尚义6．2级地震之前的某些前兆异常现象和预报过程，对于今后的地震预报研究具有借鉴的意义。
After the M6. 4 Baotou earthquake in Inner Mongolia in May 1996, the M6. 2 South Yel-low Sea earthquake in November 1996 , the M6. 2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake on January 10, 1998 , another M ≥6 earthquake occurred in North China. Before this earthquake, re-gional seismicity showed obvious anomalous characteristics and the medium-term prediction was quite successful. Unfortunately, the short-term and imminent predictions were not made for this earthquake. It was not only due to the complexity of earthquake development process and the extreme difficulty in earthquake prediction, but also to a certain problem regarding the technical thinking for earthquake prediction. In recent years, the authors have paid great at-tention to the selsmic conditions in north-west Beijing -the boundary area of Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia , and have discovered many items of seismicity anomalies characterized by bands of seismicity. To rethink the precursory anomaly phenomena and the processof predic-tion before the M6. 2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake will be of great significance for the earth-quake prediction in the future.
After the M6. 4 Baotou earthquake in Inner Mongolia in May 1996, the M6. 2 South Yel-low Sea earthquake in November 1996 , the M6. 2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake on January 10, 1998 , another M ≥6 earthquake occurred in North China. Before this earthquake, re-gional seismicity showed obvious anomalous characteristics and the medium-term prediction was quite successful. Unfortunately, the short-term and imminent predictions were not made for this earthquake. It was not only due to the complexity of earthquake development process and the extreme difficulty in earthquake prediction, but also to a certain problem regarding the technical thinking for earthquake prediction. In recent years, the authors have paid great at-tention to the selsmic conditions in north-west Beijing -the boundary area of Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia , and have discovered many items of seismicity anomalies characterized by bands of seismicity. To rethink the precursory anomaly phenomena and the processof predic-tion before the M6. 2 Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake will be of great significance for the earth-quake prediction in the future.
引文
1刘蒲雄,陈章立。地震条带及其预报效能估计.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震监测与预报方法清理 成果汇编:测震学分册.北京:地震出版社,1989.89～99.
2刘蒲雄,陈章立.地震条带及其在地震预报中的应用.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用 化研究文集。地震学专集.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.63～84.
3李钦祖,于利民,王吉易,等.成组活动是中国大陆强地震的一个基本特点.地震学报,1994,16(1);11～17
4国家地震局分析预报中心编.中国东部地震目录(197～1979).北京:地震出版社,1980.
5顾功叙主编,中国地震目录(公元1831年～1969年).北京:科学出版社,1983.
6顾功叙主编.中国地震目录(公元1970年～1979年).北京:地震出版社,1983.
2刘蒲雄,陈章立.地震条带及其在地震预报中的应用.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用 化研究文集。地震学专集.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.63～84.
3李钦祖,于利民,王吉易,等.成组活动是中国大陆强地震的一个基本特点.地震学报,1994,16(1);11～17
4国家地震局分析预报中心编.中国东部地震目录(197～1979).北京:地震出版社,1980.
5顾功叙主编,中国地震目录(公元1831年～1969年).北京:科学出版社,1983.
6顾功叙主编.中国地震目录(公元1970年～1979年).北京:地震出版社,1983.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心