测震学多项指标综合预测概率分析
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摘要
通过对测震学各单项指标的预测效能调研 ,为进一步提取前兆信息 ,选择了 7项测震学指标 :频次、地震蠕变、 b值、缺震、η值、GL值和调制比 ,进行综合概率分析。7项指标对关注地区的全时空扫描并考虑了空间单元异常与中强震地点对应的模糊关系 ,得到指标在各空间单元异常后发生中强震的条件概率。根据历史上每个单项指标的预报效能求计算综合概率时的指标权重 ,按贝叶斯定律得到相应不同指标在不同时间窗和不同空间单元时中强震发生的加权综合概率。计算结果 (1 970年以来 )表明 ,对华北地区和川滇地区这一综合概率方法预测效能的 R值评估超过 0 .5
By means of single item index, 7 seismological indices, including frequency, earthquake creeps, b value, average magnitude, η value, GL value and modulation ratio, are selected for synthetical analysis in order to extract the further precursory information. The time space scanning is made for all seismological indices. Considering the fuzzy relation between space unit anomaly and the location of moderate strong earthquakes, the condition probability for occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes after the anomaly appearance in each unit has been obtained. Then the index weighting of the synthetical probability is inferred based on the prediction efficiency of each single index in the history, from which the weighted synthetical probability for occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes is obtained by using the different space units and different time window according to Bayes rule. The results (since 1970) indicate that R value of prediction efficiency of synthetical probability method is greater than 0.5.
By means of single item index, 7 seismological indices, including frequency, earthquake creeps, b value, average magnitude, η value, GL value and modulation ratio, are selected for synthetical analysis in order to extract the further precursory information. The time space scanning is made for all seismological indices. Considering the fuzzy relation between space unit anomaly and the location of moderate strong earthquakes, the condition probability for occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes after the anomaly appearance in each unit has been obtained. Then the index weighting of the synthetical probability is inferred based on the prediction efficiency of each single index in the history, from which the weighted synthetical probability for occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes is obtained by using the different space units and different time window according to Bayes rule. The results (since 1970) indicate that R value of prediction efficiency of synthetical probability method is greater than 0.5.
引文
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[2 ] 程万正 .地震活动性统计量之间的关联度 [A].四川省地震局 .四川中短期地震预报研究 [C].成都 :成都地图出版社 ,1 994.49- 55.
[3] 许绍燮 .地震预报能力评分 [A].国家地震局科技监测司 .地震预报方法实用化研究论文集 :地震学专辑 [C].北京 :学术期刊出版社 ,1 989.586- 590 .
[4] 顾瑾平 ,虞雪君 ,盛国英 .中国南北带北段地震强度与时空推测 [J].地震学报 ,1 986,l8(1 ) :2 1 - 2 7.
[5] Beniof H.Earthquake and rock croop[J].Bull Seismol Soc,1 951 ,Am41 ,1 .
[6] 董伟民 ,Shan H C,鲍霭斌 .最大熵原理在地震重现关系上的应用 [J].地震工程与工程振动 ,1 983,3(4) :1 - 1 3.
[7] 虞雪君 ,冯德益 ,姚立询 ,等 .利用 b、c、η值探讨中强震短期预报 [A].国家地震局科技监测司 .地震短临预报的理论与方法文集 [C].北京 :地震出版社 ,1 997.1 2 0 - 1 2 6.
[8] 李志雄 ,高旭 .地震非均匀度的研究及在强震中期预报中的应用 [J].地震 ,1 994.1 4(6) :1 1 - 1 8.
[9] 秦保燕 .甘肃省及邻区中强震前调制小震异常指标研究 [A].国家地震局科技监测司 .地震预报方法实用化研究论文集 :地震学专辑 [C].北京 :学术期刊出版社 ,1 989.473- 50 1
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