地震预测与统计物理
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摘要
将现代统计物理学的理论和方法应用于地震和地震预测问题的研究 ,近年来取得了长足的进展 ,成为物理学和地震学之间一个最为活跃的交叉领域 .这一领域所取得的成果 ,例如 ,将地震作为一种临界现象的模型 ,不仅丰富和深化了对地震的认识 ,而且改变了地震预测研究中的一些传统观念 .文章介绍了这方面的研究进展 ,讨论了与这一领域相关的一些重要的物理概念和悬而未决的科学问题
In recent years, the application of the theory and methods of modern statistical physics to the study of earthquakes and earthquake prediction has had significant progress, and became one of the most active interdisciplinary frontiers between physics and seismology. Developments in this field, such as the earthquake models which regard the earthquake occurrencer as a critical phenomenon,not only improved phenomenology and understanding of the physics of earthquakes but also changed some of the traditional know\|how and methodology of earthquake prediction.This paper introduces recent advances in this field,with special emphasis on the key concepts and outstanding scientific problems related to the statistical physics of earthquakes.
In recent years, the application of the theory and methods of modern statistical physics to the study of earthquakes and earthquake prediction has had significant progress, and became one of the most active interdisciplinary frontiers between physics and seismology. Developments in this field, such as the earthquake models which regard the earthquake occurrencer as a critical phenomenon,not only improved phenomenology and understanding of the physics of earthquakes but also changed some of the traditional know\|how and methodology of earthquake prediction.This paper introduces recent advances in this field,with special emphasis on the key concepts and outstanding scientific problems related to the statistical physics of earthquakes.
引文
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[22]TurcotteDL .FractalsandChaosinGeologyandGeophysics.Cam bridge:CambridgeUniv.Press,1992.221物理学家于院士和郝柏林院士在20世纪70年代曾涉猎地震和地震预测问题的研究.他们的研究涉及GR关系在地震预测中的应用,恰恰是地震物理学中最基本的问题.参见:李全林,于,郝柏林等.地震频度-震级关系的时空扫描.北京:地震出版社,1979.102[LiQL ,YuL ,HaoBLetal.SpatioTemporalScanningoftheFrequencyMagnitudeRelationofEarthquakes.Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1979.102(inChieses)]
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[27]BurridgeR ,KnopoffL .Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1967,57:341
[28]CarlsonJM ,LangerJS .Phys.Rev.,1989,A40:6470
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[32]WuZL .Geophys.J .Int.,1998,133:104
[2]WyssM .Science,1997,278:487
[3]Naturedebates,1999,http:∥helix.nature.com debates关于地震学和地震预测研究的历史,可参见:陈运泰,吴忠良,吕苑苑.地震学今昔谈(周光召主编.21世纪学科发展丛书:地震学).济南:山东教育出版社,2001.163[ChenYT ,WuZL ,LuYY .Seismology:RetrospectandProspect(ZhouGZed.DevelopmentofSciencesinthe21thCenturySeries:Seismolo gy).Ji′nan:ShandongEducationPress,2001.163(inChinese)]
[4]KeilisBorokVI.Rev.Geophys.,1990,28:19
[5]郝柏林.统计物理介绍.见:现代科学技术简介.北京:科学出版社,1978.301[HaoBL .Anintroductiontostatisticalphysics.In:ABriefIntroductiontoModernScienceandTechnology.Bei jing:SciencePress,1978.301(inChinese)]这是介绍统计物理学的基本概念的一篇重要的文章.20多年后,统计物理学已有很多新的进展,但该文的基本观点看上去并没有过时.在同一文集中还收录了傅承义院士(中国、也是世界上的第一个国家级地震预测研究计划的执笔人)介绍固体地球物理学的文章和马宗晋院士介绍地震预测的文章
[6]MainIG .Rev.Geophys.,1996,34:433
[7]RundleJB ,TurcotteDL ,KleinW (eds).GeoComplexityandthePhysicsofEarthquakes(GeophysicalMonographSeriesNo.120).Washington:AGU ,2000.284
[8]SornetteD .CriticalPhenomenainComplexSystems.Berlin:Spring er,2000.412
[9]TeisseyreR ,MajewskiE(eds).EarthquakeThermodynamicsandPhaseTransformationsintheEarth’sInterior.SanDiego:AcademicPress,2001.674
[10]MainIG .Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1995:85:1299
[11]VarnesDJ.PureAppl.Geophys.,1989,130:661
[12]BrehmDJ,BraileLW .Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1999,89:275
[13]BowmanDD ,KingGCP .Geophys.Res.Lett.,2001,28:4039
[14]GrossS ,RundleJ.Geophys.J.Int.,1998,133:57
[15]HuangY ,JohnsonA ,LeeMWetal.J .Geophys.Res.,2000,105:25451
[16]ShebalinP ,ZaliapinI,KeilisBorokVI.Phys.EarthPlanet.In teri.,2000,122:241
[17]ZoelerG ,HainzlS ,KurthsJ .J .Geophys.Res.,2001,106:2167
[18]BakP ,TangC .J.Geophys.Res.,1989,94:15635
[19]SornetteA ,SornetteD .Europhys.Lett.,1989,9:197
[20]ItoK ,MatsuzakiM .J.Geophys.Res.,1990,95:6853
[21]GutenbergB ,RichterCF .SeismicityoftheEarthandAssociatedPhenomena.2nded.Princeton,NJ:PrincetonUniv.Press,1954.310
[22]TurcotteDL .FractalsandChaosinGeologyandGeophysics.Cam bridge:CambridgeUniv.Press,1992.221物理学家于院士和郝柏林院士在20世纪70年代曾涉猎地震和地震预测问题的研究.他们的研究涉及GR关系在地震预测中的应用,恰恰是地震物理学中最基本的问题.参见:李全林,于,郝柏林等.地震频度-震级关系的时空扫描.北京:地震出版社,1979.102[LiQL ,YuL ,HaoBLetal.SpatioTemporalScanningoftheFrequencyMagnitudeRelationofEarthquakes.Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1979.102(inChieses)]
[23]KnopoffL .Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.,2000,97:11880
[24]SteinRS .Nature,1999,402:605
[25]HarrisRA .J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24347
[26]傅承义.地球十讲.北京:科学出版社,1976.181[FuCY .TenLecturesontheEarth.Beijing:SciencePress,1976.181(inChi nese)]在这本书里,傅承义院士提出了著名的“红肿”理论
[27]BurridgeR ,KnopoffL .Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1967,57:341
[28]CarlsonJM ,LangerJS .Phys.Rev.,1989,A40:6470
[29]CarlsonJM ,LangerJS ,ShawBEetal.Phys.Rev.,1991,A44:884
[30]LayT ,KanamoriH .Anasperitymodeloflargeearthquakesequenc es.In:SimpsonDW ,RichardsPG(eds).EarthquakePrediction:AnInternationalReview(M .EwingSer.4).Washington,D .C .:AGU ,1981.579
[31]TrifuC I,RadulianM .Phys.EarthPlanet.Interi.,1989,58:277
[32]WuZL .Geophys.J .Int.,1998,133:104
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