江苏地区地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比的时空演变特征及预测意义
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摘要
根据加卸载响应比理论,通过对1991～1996年江苏省部分井孔观测资料固体潮加卸载响应比的计算发现,在中强地震前一年左右的时间震中区附近的井孔出现了响应比高值异常。通过空间图像扫描可以看出:在苍山地震前一年左右,徐州、宿迁地区出现了加卸载响应比的高值集中区;在南黄海地震前一年左右,在镇江、苏州地区出现了高值集中区,之后高值集中区有自西向东迁移即有向震中区迁移的迹象。
The loading/unloading response ratios of earth tides are calculated using the observation data from part of the wells in Jiangsu Province in the period of 1991～1996 on the basis of the theory of loading/unloading response ratio. As a result, it is found that high value anomalies of response ratio appeared at wells near the epicentral area about one year before moderate earthquakes. Based on the scanning of spacial patterns it can be seen that concentrated areas of high loading/unloading response ratio values appeared in Xuzhou and Suqian regions about one year before the Cangshan earthquake. Concentrated areas of high values appeared in Zhenjiang and Suzhou regions about one year before the Southern Yellow Sea earthquake, and then the concentrated areas of high values show signs of migrations from west to east, that is, migrations towards the epicentral area.
The loading/unloading response ratios of earth tides are calculated using the observation data from part of the wells in Jiangsu Province in the period of 1991～1996 on the basis of the theory of loading/unloading response ratio. As a result, it is found that high value anomalies of response ratio appeared at wells near the epicentral area about one year before moderate earthquakes. Based on the scanning of spacial patterns it can be seen that concentrated areas of high loading/unloading response ratio values appeared in Xuzhou and Suqian regions about one year before the Cangshan earthquake. Concentrated areas of high values appeared in Zhenjiang and Suzhou regions about one year before the Southern Yellow Sea earthquake, and then the concentrated areas of high values show signs of migrations from west to east, that is, migrations towards the epicentral area.
引文
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[2] 尹祥础,尹 灿.非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预报[J].中国科学(B辑),1991(5):512-518.
[3] 尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平,等.加卸载响应比理论———一种地震预报方法[J].地球物理学报,1994,37(6):767-775.
[4] YINXC,CHENXZ,SONGZP,etal.Anewapproachtoearthquakeprediction-theloading/unloadingResponseratio(LURR)theory[J].PAGEOPH,1995,145(3/4):701-715.
[5] YINXC.Anewapproachtoearthquakeprediction(inRussia)[J].Nuture,1993.1:21-27.
[6] YINXC,CHENXZ,SONGZP,etal.Anewapproachtoearthquakepredictionwithwhichthenorthridgeearthquakehasbeenpredictedbeforehand[J].SupplementtoEOS,1994FallMeetingAGU.1994,32D-12,462.
[7] 张昭栋,陈学忠,陈建民,等.井水位固体潮加卸载响应比的地震短临前兆[J].地震学报,1997(2):174-180.
[8] 张昭栋,刘庆国,魏 焕,等.1989年大同6.1级地震前后地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比的变化[J].西北地震学报,1999(4):356-362.
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