基于子流域的地震诱发崩塌敏感性评价
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摘要
根据地震诱发的崩塌具有数量大和成区分布的特点,将研究区北川苏宝河流域划分为211个子流域,评价选取子流域的平均高程、最大高差、平均坡度、距离河流距离、沟谷密度和岩石类型等指标,采用Logistic回归的统计学方法进行建模,并且使用ROC曲线和Kappa系数对模型的精度进行评价,其ROC曲线下面积为0.926,Kappa系数为0.690。采用同样的评价方法基于像元对研究区进行建模,模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.814,Kappa系数为0.470,均小于基于子流域的评价模型。使用模型对研究区进行敏感性评价,基于子流域的敏感性评价,有90.04%的崩塌位于高敏感和敏感区域内,而基于像元的敏感性评价,高敏感和敏感区域内只占有68.82%的崩塌。但不同敏感性区域面积比例来看,基于子流域的敏感性评价,有高敏感区域面积过大的缺点。研究进一步提出崩塌响应单元这一概念,即针对崩塌的各影响因子,将研究区划分为比子流域更小的单元,而每个单元内部,对崩塌具有相同的敏感度。
Landslide is one of the most common hazards induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake for its large quantity and wide distribution.The sub-basin was introduced into the assessment of landslides induced by earthquake.The Subao River Basin,Beichuan,which was chosen as the study area,was divided into 211 sub-basins,and the aver-age elevation,maximum relative elevation,average slope gradient,distance to the river,gully density and stone type were chosen as the assessing factors.The statistical method Logistic regression was used to build the assessing model.The model was checked by ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve and Kappa.And the AUC(Aare Under Curve) and Kappa was 0.926 and 0.690,respectively,which was much better than the pixel-oriented sus-ceptibility assessing model build by the same method.The AUC and Kappa was 0.814 and 0.470,respectively.From the susceptibility map,about 90.04 percent of landslides located in the high susceptible area.The deficiency of the sub-basin oriented assessment was that the area of high susceptible area is too large.So at last the concept of LRU(Landslide Response Unit) was introduced.The sub-basin could be divided into smaller units by some factors related to landslide.The assessment based on LRU may have a better assessing result.
Landslide is one of the most common hazards induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake for its large quantity and wide distribution.The sub-basin was introduced into the assessment of landslides induced by earthquake.The Subao River Basin,Beichuan,which was chosen as the study area,was divided into 211 sub-basins,and the aver-age elevation,maximum relative elevation,average slope gradient,distance to the river,gully density and stone type were chosen as the assessing factors.The statistical method Logistic regression was used to build the assessing model.The model was checked by ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve and Kappa.And the AUC(Aare Under Curve) and Kappa was 0.926 and 0.690,respectively,which was much better than the pixel-oriented sus-ceptibility assessing model build by the same method.The AUC and Kappa was 0.814 and 0.470,respectively.From the susceptibility map,about 90.04 percent of landslides located in the high susceptible area.The deficiency of the sub-basin oriented assessment was that the area of high susceptible area is too large.So at last the concept of LRU(Landslide Response Unit) was introduced.The sub-basin could be divided into smaller units by some factors related to landslide.The assessment based on LRU may have a better assessing result.
引文
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[2]García-Rodríguez M J,Malpica J A,Benito B,et al.Suscep-tibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides in ElSalvador using logistic regression[J].Geomorphology,2008,95(3-4):172-191.
[3]Majid H T.A comparative study of dempster-shafer and fuzz-y models for landslide susceptibility mapping using a GIS:anexperience from Zagros mountains,SW Iran[J].Journal ofAsian Earth Sciences,20093,5(1):66-73.
[4]乔建平.低山区滑坡危险度区域与预测研究——以三峡库区开县为例[M].成都:四川大学出版社2,009.
[5]Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,He Siming,et al.Mountain disas-ter induced by the earthquake of May 12 in Wenchuan andthe disaster mitigation[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2008,26(3):280-282.[崔鹏,韦方强,何思明,等.“5.12”汶川地震诱发的山地灾害及减灾措施[J].山地学报2,008,26(3):280-282.]
[6]Miles S B,Keefer D K.Evaluation of CAMEL—comprehen-sive areal model of earthquake-induced landslides[J].Engi-neering Geology,2009,104(1-2):1-15.
[7]Zhang Jianqiang,Fan Jianrong,Yan Dong,et al.Sensitivityevaluation to earthquake-induced landslide and collapse:acase study of Beichuan county,Sichuan provice[J].Jounealof Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edition,2009,41(3):140-145.[张建强,范建容,严冬,等.汶川地震诱发崩塌滑坡敏感性评价——以北川县为例[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2009,41(3):140-145.]
[8]Zhuang Jianqi,Cui Peng,Ge Yonggang,et al.Distributioncharacteristics and impact factors assessment of collapsesand landslides caused by“5.12”Wenchuan earthquake:taking Dujiangyan-Wenchuan highway as a sample[J].Geo-logical Science and Technology Information2,0092,8(2):16-21.[庄建琦,崔鹏,葛勇刚,等.“5.12”汶川地震崩塌滑坡分布特征及影响因子评价——以都江堰至汶川公路沿线为例[J].地质科技情报,2009,28(2):16-21.]
[9]Cohen J.A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales[J].Educational and Psychological Measurement,1960,20(1):37-46.
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