中国大陆部分大震前Hurst指数异常变化特征
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摘要
对中国大陆 1970年以来 12组 7级以上地震进行了前后 10年左右地震时间间隔序列的 R/ S分析 ,滑动计算其 Hurst指数 H值。H值的时间进程显示 ,9组大震前 2年左右 H值在较为稳定的背景上开始出现异常变化 ,其异常特征为“下降—低值—回升”,地震大多发生在 H值回升的过程中 ,具有中、短期前兆意义。 H值的异常过程揭示了在大震孕震系统内地震活动从无序向有序的时间演化过程
A R/S analysis was conducted for the sequence of the interval time between earthquakes in several years before and after every group of 12 groups of large earthquakes (M-S≥7.0) in China mainland since 1970. The Hurst exponent (value H) were calculated through window slipping. The evolution of value H with time suggests that value H ′s of 9 groups begin to show anomaly under steady background from two years or so before the events. The anomalous features is “dropping-low value-rising”,and a great majority of earthquakes occur in the process of value H rising. This anomalous feature can be considered as medium-,short-term earthquake precursor. The anomalous process of value H reveals the process of seismicity from disorder to order in a large earthquake generating system.
A R/S analysis was conducted for the sequence of the interval time between earthquakes in several years before and after every group of 12 groups of large earthquakes (M-S≥7.0) in China mainland since 1970. The Hurst exponent (value H) were calculated through window slipping. The evolution of value H with time suggests that value H ′s of 9 groups begin to show anomaly under steady background from two years or so before the events. The anomalous features is “dropping-low value-rising”,and a great majority of earthquakes occur in the process of value H rising. This anomalous feature can be considered as medium-,short-term earthquake precursor. The anomalous process of value H reveals the process of seismicity from disorder to order in a large earthquake generating system.
引文
[1]陈,陈凌.分形几何学[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.
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[3]刘长海,刘义高,张军.地震时间间隔的R/S分析[J].地震学报,1995,17(3):389～392.
[4]王碧泉,黄汉明,范洪顺等.非线性R/S方法研究及其在地震预测中的应用[J].地震学报,1995,17(4):528～532.
[5]陈佩燕.非线性参数H值用于华北地区的预报方案研究及检验[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1996,17(1):76～80.
[6]赵翠萍,王海涛.新疆部分中强地震前Hurst指数异常变化特征[J].地震,待刊.
[7]黄登仕,李后强.分形几何学、R/S分析与分式布朗运动[J].自然杂志,1990,13(8):477～482.
[8]FederJ.Fractals[M].NewYork andLondon:PlenumPress,1988.
[2]陈凌,刘杰,陈等.地震活动性分析中余震的删除[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(增刊):244～253.
[3]刘长海,刘义高,张军.地震时间间隔的R/S分析[J].地震学报,1995,17(3):389～392.
[4]王碧泉,黄汉明,范洪顺等.非线性R/S方法研究及其在地震预测中的应用[J].地震学报,1995,17(4):528～532.
[5]陈佩燕.非线性参数H值用于华北地区的预报方案研究及检验[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1996,17(1):76～80.
[6]赵翠萍,王海涛.新疆部分中强地震前Hurst指数异常变化特征[J].地震,待刊.
[7]黄登仕,李后强.分形几何学、R/S分析与分式布朗运动[J].自然杂志,1990,13(8):477～482.
[8]FederJ.Fractals[M].NewYork andLondon:PlenumPress,1988.
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