量子地震模型:对汶川地震的解释
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摘要
从大量的地震参数分析可知,在由同一主震引发的所有的余震发生的位置都不同。在发生地震之前,地震的震中位置都是一些相互独立、互不连续且发生了弹性应变的单元个体,笔者称这些独立不连续的弹性应变单元称为应变量子。综合前人研究成果,笔者建立了一个地震模型。运用该模型对2008年5月12日发生在中国汶川地震作了解释:由于在龙门山断裂带周围形成了许多的应变量子,这些应变量子的形成阻碍了龙门山断裂的运动,产生滑移亏损,从而造成在地震前测量到的龙门山断裂带速度场变化很不显著。2008年5月12日14时28分时,在龙门山断裂周围已形成应变量子中的其中一应变量子最先达到它的最大储能,释放它所储存的应变能,引发了汶川Ms8.0地震。此次地震产生的地震波引发了龙门山断裂周围地壳应力的重分布,使得其他应变量子提前达到最大储能,释放出能量,于是触发成千上万次余震。此外,我们或许可以通过观测断裂滑移速率的变化情况来预测断裂周围应变量子的形成,从而来预测该断裂是否存在潜在地震的可能。
Aftershocks triggered by an earthquake were located at different positions as shown by a large number of seismic parameters.Before the earthquake these positions can be looked as some units that are independent,discontinuous each other,and under elastic deformation.The author named them strain quanta.In combination with previous research findings,the author set up an earthquake model,and the Wenchuan earthquake in China that took place on May 12th,2008 is interpreted with the model as follows: The strain quanta,which were formed in Longmenshan fault zone,hindered the movements of Longmenshan fault,and then brought about slip deficit.That made the velocity-field change in Longmenshan fault zone measured before the earthquake very unconspicuous.At 14:28 on May 12,2008,one of the strain quanta reached its maximum energy storage in the first place,so it released its energy and made the surrounding crustal stress redistributed.The stress redistribution reduced the maximum energy storage of other strain quanta and made them release their energy in advance,and then caused the Ms 8.0 earthquake and subsequently many aftershocks.Moreover,we can make use of the observation of the velocity field change among the faults in the same plate to predict earthquakes.The smallest change of speed field of the fault will be measured out if many elastic strain quanta are formed along it;the elastic strain quanta are the source of the future earthquakes;and the fault is the potential earthquake fault.
Aftershocks triggered by an earthquake were located at different positions as shown by a large number of seismic parameters.Before the earthquake these positions can be looked as some units that are independent,discontinuous each other,and under elastic deformation.The author named them strain quanta.In combination with previous research findings,the author set up an earthquake model,and the Wenchuan earthquake in China that took place on May 12th,2008 is interpreted with the model as follows: The strain quanta,which were formed in Longmenshan fault zone,hindered the movements of Longmenshan fault,and then brought about slip deficit.That made the velocity-field change in Longmenshan fault zone measured before the earthquake very unconspicuous.At 14:28 on May 12,2008,one of the strain quanta reached its maximum energy storage in the first place,so it released its energy and made the surrounding crustal stress redistributed.The stress redistribution reduced the maximum energy storage of other strain quanta and made them release their energy in advance,and then caused the Ms 8.0 earthquake and subsequently many aftershocks.Moreover,we can make use of the observation of the velocity field change among the faults in the same plate to predict earthquakes.The smallest change of speed field of the fault will be measured out if many elastic strain quanta are formed along it;the elastic strain quanta are the source of the future earthquakes;and the fault is the potential earthquake fault.
引文
[1]Tang J,Zhan Y,Wang L F,et al.Coseismic signal associat-ed with aftershock of theMs8.0 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,2008,30(3):739-745(in Chi-nese).
[2]Li G,Guo T S,Wang H M.Abrief introduction to the May12,2008 WenchuanMs8.0 earthquake sequence[J].Earth-quake Research in China,2008,24(2):187-196(in Chi-nese).
[3]Jiang H K,Li M X,Wu Q,et al.Features of the May 12,2008 WenchuanMs8.0 earthquake sequence and discussionon relevant problems[J].Seismology and Geology,2008,30(3):746-758(in Chinese).
[4]Zheng Y,Ma H S,LüJ,et al.Strong earthquake after-shocks(Ms≥5.6)of the focal mechanismsolutions and theirrelations with the seismogenic structure[J].Science in Chi-na:Series D,2009,39(4):413-426(in Chinese).
[5]Kasahara J.Tides,earthquakes,and volcanoes[J].Science,2002,297:348-349.
[6]Velasco A A,Hernandez S,Parsons T,et al.Global ubiqu-ity of dynamic earthquake triggering[J].Nature Geoscience,2008,1:375-379.
[7]Jónsson S.I mportance of post-seismic viscous relaxation insouthern Iceland[J].Nature Geoscience,2008,1:136-139.
[8]Wu Z F,Zhou T G,Zhang Y H,et al.Analysis of spatialand temporal variation of aftershocks in Wenchuan“5.12”Earthquake sequence[J].Ecology and Environment,2008,17(4):1662-1664(in Chinese).
[9]Chen G J.Physics Tutorial[M].Beijing:Science Press,2002.
[10]Taylor F W,Briggs R W,Frohlich C,et al.Rupture acrossarc segment and plate boundariesin the April 1st,2007 Solo-mons earthquake[J].Nature Geoscience,2008,1:253-257.
[11]Hashi moto C,Noda A,Sagiya T.Interplate seismogeniczones alongthe Kuril-Japantrenchinferredfrom GPS datain-version[J].Nature Geoscience,2009,2:141-144.
[12]John T,Medvedev S,Rüpke L H,et al.Generation of inter-mediate-depth earthquakes by self-localizing thermal runaway[J].Nature Geoscience,2009,2:137-140.
[13]Linde A T,Sasks I S,Johnson M,et al.Increased pressurefromrising bubbles as a mechanism for remotely triggeredseismicity[J].Nature,1994,371:408-410.
[14]Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,et al.Slip rates and recur-rence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone,andtectonic i mplications for the mechanism of the May 12 Wen-chuan earthquake,2008,Sichuan,China[J].Chinese Jour-nal of Geophysics,2008,51(4):1066-1073(in Chinese).
[15]Zoback ML,Zoback M D,Adams J,et al.Global patternsof tectonic stress[J].Nature,1989,341:291-298.
[16]Zhang Y Q,Dong S W.The report of theMs8.0 Wenchuanearthquake in Sichuan[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2008,82(7):1013-1015(in Chinese).
[17]Zhang Y,Feng WP,Xu L S,et al.The rupture process ofspace-ti me of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Science in Chi-na:Series D,2008,38(10):1186-1194(in Chinese).
[18]Jónsson S.I mportance of post-seismic viscous relaxation insouthern Iceland[J].Nature Geoscience,2008,1:136-139.
[19]Jónsson S,Segall P,Pedersen R,et al.Post-earthquakeground movements correlated to pore-pressure transients[J].Nature,2003,424:179-183.
[20]Harris R A,Si mpson R W,Reasenberg P A.Influence ofstatic stress changes on earthquakelocationsin southern Cali-fornia[J].Nature,1995,375:221-224.
[21]Marsan D,LenglinéO.Extending earthquakes reachthrough cascading[J].Science,2008,319:1076-1079.
[22]Gomberg J,Johnson P.Seismology:Dynamic triggering ofearthquakes[J].Nature,2005,437:830.
[23]Seeber L,Armbruster J G.Earthquakes as beacons of stresschange[J].Nature,2000,407:69-72.
[24]Felzer K R,Brodsky E E.Decay of aftershock density withdistance indicates triggering by dynamic stress[J].Nature,2006,441:735-738.
[25]Beroza G C,Zoback M D.Mechanismdiversity of the LomaPrieta aftershocks and the mechanics of mainshock-aftershockinteraction[J].Science,1993,259:210-213.
[26]Vidale J E,Li Y G.Damage to the shallow Landers faultfromthe nearby Hector Mine earthquake[J].Nature,2003,421:524-526.
[27]Johnson P A,Jia X P.Nonlinear dynamics,granular mediaand dynamic earthquake triggering[J].Nature,2005,437:871-874.
[28]Zhang P Z,Deng Q D,Zhang G M,et al.Active tectonicblocks and strong earthquakes in continental China[J].Sci-ence in China:Series D,2003,46(Suppl):13-24(in Chi-nese).
[29]Qian H,Jiang M,Chen WP,et al.Tomography of Gyirong-Lugu profile(Hi-Cli mb)and the subduction of Indian-Tibetcollision[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2007,50(5):1427-1436(in Chinese).
[30]Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.Rupture process of theMs8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China[J].ChineseJournal of Geophysics,2008,51(5):1403-1410(in Chi-nese).
[31]Li Y X,Zhang J H,Zhou W,et al.The mechanismand dy-namics of the generation and occurrence for WenchuanMs8.0earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):519-530(in Chinese).
[32]Chang L J,Wang C Y,Ding Z F.The research of Sichuanand adjacent areas of the upper anisotropy mantle[J].Sciencein China:Series D,2008,38(12):1589-1599(in Chinese).
[33]Zhu S B,Zhang P Z.Astudy on the dynamical mechanismsof the WenchuanMs8.0 earthquake,2008[J].Chinese Jour-nal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):408-417(in Chinese).
[34]Chen Z A,Lin B H,Bai W M,et al.The mechanism ofearthquakeMs8.0 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].ChineseJournal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):531-537(in Chinese).
[35]Wu J P,Huang Y,Zhang TZ,et al.Aftershock distributionof theMs8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and three di mensional P-wave velocity structure in and around source region[J].ChineseJournal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):320-328(in Chinese).
[36]Teng J W,Bai D H,Yang H,et al.Deep processes and dy-namic responses associated with the WenchuanMs8.0 earth-quake of 2008[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2008,51(5):1385-1402(in Chinese).
[37]Guo L Q,Li Y X,Hu X K,et al.Crustal motion of Chinesemainland and preparation ofMs8.0 Wenchuan earthquake inSichuan Province[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):531-537.
[38]Kerr R A,Stone R.A human trigger for the great quake ofSichuan[J]?Science,2009,323:322.
[39]Chen Y.Does the reservoir storing water cause Wenchuanearthquake[J]?Science in China:Series D,2009,39(3):257-259(in Chinese).
[40]Zhang P Z.Eastern edge of western Sichuan region of currenttectonic deformation,strain distribution and geodynamic ofQinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Science in China:Series D,2008,38(9):1041-1056(in Chinese).
[41]Alexander L D,Michael A E,Yong L,et al.Active tecton-ics of the Beichuan and Pengguan faults at the eastern marginof the Tibetan Plateau[J].Tectonics,2007,26:1-17.
[1]汤吉,詹艳,王立凤,等.5月12日汶川8.0级地震强余震观测的电磁同震效应[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):739-745.
[2]李纲,郭铁栓,王慧敏.2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震序列简介[J].中国地震,2008,24(2):187-196.
[3]蒋海昆,黎明晓,吴琼,等.汶川8.0级地震序列及相关问题讨论[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):746-758.
[4]郑勇,马宏生,吕坚,等.汶川地震强余震(Ms≥5.6)的震源机制解及其与发震构造的关系[J].中国科学:D辑,2009,39(4):413-426.
[8]吴忠芳,周廷刚,张元华,等.汶川“5.12”地震序列余震时空分布的研究[J].生态环境,2008,17(4):1662-1664.
[14]张培震,徐锡伟,温学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1066-1073.
[16]张岳桥,董树文.四川汶川Ms8.0地震报道:向地震中死难的同胞致哀[J].地质学报,2008,82(7):1013-1015.
[17]张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,等.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程[J].中国科学:D辑,2008,38(10):1186-1194.
[28]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学:D辑,2003,46(增刊):13-24.
[29]钱辉,姜枚,Chen W P,等.青藏高原吉隆—鲁谷(Hi-Cli mb)层析成像与印藏碰撞的消减作用[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(5):1427-1436.
[30]王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,等.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1403-1410.
[31]李延兴,张静华,周伟,等.汶川Ms8.0级地震孕育发生的机制与动力学问题[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):519-530.
[32]常利军,王椿镛,丁志峰.四川及邻区上地幔各向异性研究[J].中国科学:D辑,2008,38(12):1589-1599.
[33]朱守彪,张培震.2008年汶川Ms8.0地震发生过程的动力学机制研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):408-417.
[34]陈祖安,林邦慧,白武明,等.2008年汶川Ms8.0级地震孕震机理研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):531-537.
[35]吴建平,黄媛,张天中,等.汶川Ms8.0级地震余震分布及周边区域P波三维速度结构研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):320-328.
[36]滕吉文,白登海,杨辉,等.2008汶川Ms8.0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1385-1402.
[39]陈颙.汶川地震是由水库蓄水引起的吗[J]?中国科学:D辑,2009,39(3):257-259.
[40]张培震.青藏高原东缘川西地区的现今构造变形、应变分配与深部动力学过程[J].中国科学:D辑,2008,38(9):1041-1056.
[2]Li G,Guo T S,Wang H M.Abrief introduction to the May12,2008 WenchuanMs8.0 earthquake sequence[J].Earth-quake Research in China,2008,24(2):187-196(in Chi-nese).
[3]Jiang H K,Li M X,Wu Q,et al.Features of the May 12,2008 WenchuanMs8.0 earthquake sequence and discussionon relevant problems[J].Seismology and Geology,2008,30(3):746-758(in Chinese).
[4]Zheng Y,Ma H S,LüJ,et al.Strong earthquake after-shocks(Ms≥5.6)of the focal mechanismsolutions and theirrelations with the seismogenic structure[J].Science in Chi-na:Series D,2009,39(4):413-426(in Chinese).
[5]Kasahara J.Tides,earthquakes,and volcanoes[J].Science,2002,297:348-349.
[6]Velasco A A,Hernandez S,Parsons T,et al.Global ubiqu-ity of dynamic earthquake triggering[J].Nature Geoscience,2008,1:375-379.
[7]Jónsson S.I mportance of post-seismic viscous relaxation insouthern Iceland[J].Nature Geoscience,2008,1:136-139.
[8]Wu Z F,Zhou T G,Zhang Y H,et al.Analysis of spatialand temporal variation of aftershocks in Wenchuan“5.12”Earthquake sequence[J].Ecology and Environment,2008,17(4):1662-1664(in Chinese).
[9]Chen G J.Physics Tutorial[M].Beijing:Science Press,2002.
[10]Taylor F W,Briggs R W,Frohlich C,et al.Rupture acrossarc segment and plate boundariesin the April 1st,2007 Solo-mons earthquake[J].Nature Geoscience,2008,1:253-257.
[11]Hashi moto C,Noda A,Sagiya T.Interplate seismogeniczones alongthe Kuril-Japantrenchinferredfrom GPS datain-version[J].Nature Geoscience,2009,2:141-144.
[12]John T,Medvedev S,Rüpke L H,et al.Generation of inter-mediate-depth earthquakes by self-localizing thermal runaway[J].Nature Geoscience,2009,2:137-140.
[13]Linde A T,Sasks I S,Johnson M,et al.Increased pressurefromrising bubbles as a mechanism for remotely triggeredseismicity[J].Nature,1994,371:408-410.
[14]Zhang P Z,Xu X W,Wen X Z,et al.Slip rates and recur-rence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone,andtectonic i mplications for the mechanism of the May 12 Wen-chuan earthquake,2008,Sichuan,China[J].Chinese Jour-nal of Geophysics,2008,51(4):1066-1073(in Chinese).
[15]Zoback ML,Zoback M D,Adams J,et al.Global patternsof tectonic stress[J].Nature,1989,341:291-298.
[16]Zhang Y Q,Dong S W.The report of theMs8.0 Wenchuanearthquake in Sichuan[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2008,82(7):1013-1015(in Chinese).
[17]Zhang Y,Feng WP,Xu L S,et al.The rupture process ofspace-ti me of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Science in Chi-na:Series D,2008,38(10):1186-1194(in Chinese).
[18]Jónsson S.I mportance of post-seismic viscous relaxation insouthern Iceland[J].Nature Geoscience,2008,1:136-139.
[19]Jónsson S,Segall P,Pedersen R,et al.Post-earthquakeground movements correlated to pore-pressure transients[J].Nature,2003,424:179-183.
[20]Harris R A,Si mpson R W,Reasenberg P A.Influence ofstatic stress changes on earthquakelocationsin southern Cali-fornia[J].Nature,1995,375:221-224.
[21]Marsan D,LenglinéO.Extending earthquakes reachthrough cascading[J].Science,2008,319:1076-1079.
[22]Gomberg J,Johnson P.Seismology:Dynamic triggering ofearthquakes[J].Nature,2005,437:830.
[23]Seeber L,Armbruster J G.Earthquakes as beacons of stresschange[J].Nature,2000,407:69-72.
[24]Felzer K R,Brodsky E E.Decay of aftershock density withdistance indicates triggering by dynamic stress[J].Nature,2006,441:735-738.
[25]Beroza G C,Zoback M D.Mechanismdiversity of the LomaPrieta aftershocks and the mechanics of mainshock-aftershockinteraction[J].Science,1993,259:210-213.
[26]Vidale J E,Li Y G.Damage to the shallow Landers faultfromthe nearby Hector Mine earthquake[J].Nature,2003,421:524-526.
[27]Johnson P A,Jia X P.Nonlinear dynamics,granular mediaand dynamic earthquake triggering[J].Nature,2005,437:871-874.
[28]Zhang P Z,Deng Q D,Zhang G M,et al.Active tectonicblocks and strong earthquakes in continental China[J].Sci-ence in China:Series D,2003,46(Suppl):13-24(in Chi-nese).
[29]Qian H,Jiang M,Chen WP,et al.Tomography of Gyirong-Lugu profile(Hi-Cli mb)and the subduction of Indian-Tibetcollision[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2007,50(5):1427-1436(in Chinese).
[30]Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.Rupture process of theMs8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China[J].ChineseJournal of Geophysics,2008,51(5):1403-1410(in Chi-nese).
[31]Li Y X,Zhang J H,Zhou W,et al.The mechanismand dy-namics of the generation and occurrence for WenchuanMs8.0earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):519-530(in Chinese).
[32]Chang L J,Wang C Y,Ding Z F.The research of Sichuanand adjacent areas of the upper anisotropy mantle[J].Sciencein China:Series D,2008,38(12):1589-1599(in Chinese).
[33]Zhu S B,Zhang P Z.Astudy on the dynamical mechanismsof the WenchuanMs8.0 earthquake,2008[J].Chinese Jour-nal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):408-417(in Chinese).
[34]Chen Z A,Lin B H,Bai W M,et al.The mechanism ofearthquakeMs8.0 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].ChineseJournal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):531-537(in Chinese).
[35]Wu J P,Huang Y,Zhang TZ,et al.Aftershock distributionof theMs8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and three di mensional P-wave velocity structure in and around source region[J].ChineseJournal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):320-328(in Chinese).
[36]Teng J W,Bai D H,Yang H,et al.Deep processes and dy-namic responses associated with the WenchuanMs8.0 earth-quake of 2008[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2008,51(5):1385-1402(in Chinese).
[37]Guo L Q,Li Y X,Hu X K,et al.Crustal motion of Chinesemainland and preparation ofMs8.0 Wenchuan earthquake inSichuan Province[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009,52(2):531-537.
[38]Kerr R A,Stone R.A human trigger for the great quake ofSichuan[J]?Science,2009,323:322.
[39]Chen Y.Does the reservoir storing water cause Wenchuanearthquake[J]?Science in China:Series D,2009,39(3):257-259(in Chinese).
[40]Zhang P Z.Eastern edge of western Sichuan region of currenttectonic deformation,strain distribution and geodynamic ofQinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Science in China:Series D,2008,38(9):1041-1056(in Chinese).
[41]Alexander L D,Michael A E,Yong L,et al.Active tecton-ics of the Beichuan and Pengguan faults at the eastern marginof the Tibetan Plateau[J].Tectonics,2007,26:1-17.
[1]汤吉,詹艳,王立凤,等.5月12日汶川8.0级地震强余震观测的电磁同震效应[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):739-745.
[2]李纲,郭铁栓,王慧敏.2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震序列简介[J].中国地震,2008,24(2):187-196.
[3]蒋海昆,黎明晓,吴琼,等.汶川8.0级地震序列及相关问题讨论[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):746-758.
[4]郑勇,马宏生,吕坚,等.汶川地震强余震(Ms≥5.6)的震源机制解及其与发震构造的关系[J].中国科学:D辑,2009,39(4):413-426.
[8]吴忠芳,周廷刚,张元华,等.汶川“5.12”地震序列余震时空分布的研究[J].生态环境,2008,17(4):1662-1664.
[14]张培震,徐锡伟,温学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1066-1073.
[16]张岳桥,董树文.四川汶川Ms8.0地震报道:向地震中死难的同胞致哀[J].地质学报,2008,82(7):1013-1015.
[17]张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,等.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程[J].中国科学:D辑,2008,38(10):1186-1194.
[28]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学:D辑,2003,46(增刊):13-24.
[29]钱辉,姜枚,Chen W P,等.青藏高原吉隆—鲁谷(Hi-Cli mb)层析成像与印藏碰撞的消减作用[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(5):1427-1436.
[30]王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,等.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1403-1410.
[31]李延兴,张静华,周伟,等.汶川Ms8.0级地震孕育发生的机制与动力学问题[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):519-530.
[32]常利军,王椿镛,丁志峰.四川及邻区上地幔各向异性研究[J].中国科学:D辑,2008,38(12):1589-1599.
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