青藏铁路沿线的天灾及其预测方法探索
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摘要
本文统计了青藏铁路沿线50多年来的强地震、雪灾和夏季旱涝,并根据地气耦合原理对其成因进行了分析,找到了一些很好的预报因子,初步得出了以下结论:未来10年35оN以南的沿线地区将很少会发生Ms>6级的强震;“本区强震年”和8月沿线为地热涡控制时铁路沿线会发生雪灾;本区冬季为地冷涡控制时一般为夏旱年.
We have made statistics of strong earthquakes,snow disasters,floods and drought in summer along the Qinghai-Xizang railway in the last 50 years,analyzed their causes using the Di-qi map method,and found the prediction factors. We predict that there will be seldom strong earthquakes of M-s>6 along the Qinghai-Xizang railway in the next 10 years,and the snow disaster will happen when the strong earthquake happen in the same region and at the same time or this district is controlled by the geothermal vortex in August,and the drought in summer will happen as cold vortex controls this region in winter.
We have made statistics of strong earthquakes,snow disasters,floods and drought in summer along the Qinghai-Xizang railway in the last 50 years,analyzed their causes using the Di-qi map method,and found the prediction factors. We predict that there will be seldom strong earthquakes of M-s>6 along the Qinghai-Xizang railway in the next 10 years,and the snow disaster will happen when the strong earthquake happen in the same region and at the same time or this district is controlled by the geothermal vortex in August,and the drought in summer will happen as cold vortex controls this region in winter.
引文
[1]Wang Z R,Feng S,Tang M C.A relationship between solar activityand frequency of nature disasters in China.Adv.in Atmo.Sci.,2003,20(6):934~939
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[9]江灏,王钟睿,柳艳香.我国地震、地温、降水之间的动态统计特征.地球物理学报,2002,45(增):144~150Jiang H,Wang Z R,Liu Y X.The dynamic statistical characteristicsbetween the earthquake,ground temperature and precipitation inChina.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2002,45(Suppl.):144~150
[10]赵红岩,张拥军,汤懋苍等.冬季亚洲中强震与夏季我国东部主雨带的准同纬性.地球物理学报,2006,49(3):706~711Zhao H Y,Zhang Y J,Tang M C,et al.The quasi_latitudecharacter of the earthquakes in winter in Asia and the rainy belts ineast China in summer.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2006,49(3):706~711
[11]普布卓玛,周顺武.西藏地区旱涝等级划分及时空分布特征.高原气象,2002,22(2):210~216Pubu Z M,Zhou S W.Classification of drought and flood grades andtheir temporal/spatial distribution features in Tibet.PlateauMeteorology(in Chinese),2002,22(2):210~216
[12]汤懋苍,张拥军.短期气候预测地气图方法的7条预报规则.高原气象,2005,24(2):218~222Tang M C,Zhang Y J.7 predicting rules of Di_qi map method forshort term climate prediction.Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),2005,24(2):218~222
[2]柳艳香,汤懋苍,高晓清.百年来中印缅热点强度变化及对气候的影响.地球物理学报,2002,45(增):48~55Liu Y X,Tang M C,Gao X Q.Intensity of CIB hotspot and itsinfluence on climatic change during last 100 years.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2002,45(Suppl.):48~55
[3]冯松,汤懋苍.未来30年和300年气候变化的趋势预测.见:汤懋苍等主编.青藏高原近代气候变化及对环境的影响第十章.广州:广东科学技术出版社,1998.209~222Feng S,Tang M C.Climate change prediction in 30 years and 300years.In:Tang M C eds.Late Climate Change and Its Influence toEnvironment in Plateau(in Chinese).Guangzhou:GuangdongScience&Technology Press,1998.209~222
[4]Li D L,Guo H,Wang W,et al.Effects of sunspot cycle length andCO2on air temperature along Qinghai_Xizang railway and airtemperature’s trend prediction.Science in China(Series D),2004,47(Suppl.):131~141
[5]汤懋苍,高晓清.1980~1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征Ⅰ.“热涡”的时空分布.中国科学(B辑),1995,25(11):1186~1192Tang M C,Gao X Q.Some statistical characteristics of the“geothermic vortex”in China during 1980~1993,Ⅰ:The spatialand temporal distribution of“geothermic vortex”.Science in China(Series B)(in Chinese),1995,25(11):1186~1192
[6]耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究.北京:海洋出版社,1985Geng Q G.Relationship Research between Drought and Earthquakein China(in Chinese).Beijing:Ocean Press,1985
[7]戴家冼.青藏高原气候.北京:气象出版社,1990.261~264Dai J X.Qinghai_Tibet Plateau Climate(in Chinese).Beijing:Meteorological Press,1990.261~264
[8]高荣,韦志刚,董文杰等.20世纪后期青藏高原积雪和冻土变化及其与气候变化的关系.高原气象,2003,22(2):191~196Gao R,Wei Z G,Dong W J,et al.Variation of the snow and frozensoil over Qinghai_Xizang plateau in the late twentieth century andtheir relations to climatic change.Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),2003,22(2):191~196
[9]江灏,王钟睿,柳艳香.我国地震、地温、降水之间的动态统计特征.地球物理学报,2002,45(增):144~150Jiang H,Wang Z R,Liu Y X.The dynamic statistical characteristicsbetween the earthquake,ground temperature and precipitation inChina.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2002,45(Suppl.):144~150
[10]赵红岩,张拥军,汤懋苍等.冬季亚洲中强震与夏季我国东部主雨带的准同纬性.地球物理学报,2006,49(3):706~711Zhao H Y,Zhang Y J,Tang M C,et al.The quasi_latitudecharacter of the earthquakes in winter in Asia and the rainy belts ineast China in summer.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2006,49(3):706~711
[11]普布卓玛,周顺武.西藏地区旱涝等级划分及时空分布特征.高原气象,2002,22(2):210~216Pubu Z M,Zhou S W.Classification of drought and flood grades andtheir temporal/spatial distribution features in Tibet.PlateauMeteorology(in Chinese),2002,22(2):210~216
[12]汤懋苍,张拥军.短期气候预测地气图方法的7条预报规则.高原气象,2005,24(2):218~222Tang M C,Zhang Y J.7 predicting rules of Di_qi map method forshort term climate prediction.Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),2005,24(2):218~222
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