根据环境应力值预测我国大陆近三年强震危险区的研究
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摘要
把环境应力增高，作为将要发生强震的前兆。根据陈培善导出的利用地震波资料直接计算环境剪应力τ＿０值的公式，计算了１９８７─１９９１年全国范围内的环境剪应力值，并据此预测了１９９２年以后３年内可能发生６级以上地震的５个强震危险区。实际验证结果是：从１９９２年５月至今，中国境内共发生Ｍ≥６．０的地震７次，６次均落在预先划定的危险区内。根据进一步的研究，计算了１９９２─１９９３年全国环境应力值，结合１９９１年以前的资料，对未来１９９３年１１月─１９９６年３年内可能发生强震的危险区进行了预测，提出了６个值得注意的强震危险区。
The increasing of ambient shear stress is regarded as large earthquake precursor. By useof the formulas deived bv P.S.Chen which enable to directly compute ambient shearstress from seismic observation data,the ambient shear stress values across China dur-ing 1 987─1991 have been computed,and predicted 5 hazard zones of large earthquakewith M≥6.0 for coming three years after March of l992.The test is proved successful:7 earthquakes with M≥6.0 have been occurred in the continent of China from May of1992 to October of l993,6 earthquakes fell into the earthquake hazard zones which arepointed out by us prior to occurrence of the earthquakes.Further studv is made,the ambient shear stresses across China from 1 992 to Au-gust of 1993 have been computed.Conbining the previous material, 6 large earthquakehazard zones all over China for coming three years(1993.11─1996) have been pro-posed.
The increasing of ambient shear stress is regarded as large earthquake precursor. By useof the formulas deived bv P.S.Chen which enable to directly compute ambient shearstress from seismic observation data,the ambient shear stress values across China dur-ing 1 987─1991 have been computed,and predicted 5 hazard zones of large earthquakewith M≥6.0 for coming three years after March of l992.The test is proved successful:7 earthquakes with M≥6.0 have been occurred in the continent of China from May of1992 to October of l993,6 earthquakes fell into the earthquake hazard zones which arepointed out by us prior to occurrence of the earthquakes.Further studv is made,the ambient shear stresses across China from 1 992 to Au-gust of 1993 have been computed.Conbining the previous material, 6 large earthquakehazard zones all over China for coming three years(1993.11─1996) have been pro-posed.
引文
［1］陈培善、谷继成、李文香，1977．从断裂学观点研究地震的破裂过程和地震预报，地球物理学报，20，3，185─202．［2］陈培善、卓钰如、金严、王志刚、黄伟琼、李文香、胡荣胜，1978．唐山地震前后津京唐张地区的应力场，地球物理学报，21，1，34─58．［3］陈培善，1981．分析地震波估算地壳内的应力值，地震学报，3．3，251─263．［4］陈培善、陈海通，1989．由二维破裂模式导出的地震定标律，地震学报，11．4，337─350．［5］陈培善、白彤霞，1991．震源参数之间的定量关系，地震学报，13，4，401─411．［6］陈培善：3．J．Duda，1993．地震辐射能对环境应力场的依赖性，地震学报，15，2，146─152．［7］陈培善、陈海通，1992．由环境应力值寻找地震危险区的尝试，地震地质观测与研究，13，6，1─11．
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