地震活动期、幕最大地震M_1的估计及中-长期地震趋势预测
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摘要
提出一种地震活动期、幕最大地震 M1的估计方法 :利用中低震级累计频度 ∑N与震级近似的直线关系得到间隔地震频度 N与震级的线性关系。用间隔频度 N与震级的线性关系估计最大地震 M1。结果表明 ,以震级 -间隔频度的线性关系估计的 M1比震级 -累计频度关系得到的 M1更接近实际发生的最大地震震级 ,震级 -累计频度关系得到的 M1通常被高估。基于震级 -累计频度关系曲线的特征和震级 -间隔频度的线性关系估计的最大地震 M1,可为中 -长期地震趋势预测提供新的信息。研究表明 ,中国大陆自 1 979年开始的地震幕即将结束 ,而帕米尔东北侧自 1 91 5年以来的地震平静期也将结束
This paper proposed one method, which uses the linear relation between the middle low magnitude and cumulative frequency to obtain the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency. The maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 can be calculated by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency. The calculation results show that: by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency, the estimated maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 is closer to the observed maximum earthquake magnitude in one seismic period or episode than that estimated by using the relation between magnitude and cumulative frequency.The later one is often overestimated. The evolutional characteristics of the relation curve between magnitude and cumulative frequency, and the estimated maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency can give the new information in the medium long term earthquake trend prediction for one seismic period or episode. The investigation shows that the seismic episode started from 1979 in China is coming to the end, a seismic ally quiet period is close to the end in the area of the North Eastern side of Pamirs.
This paper proposed one method, which uses the linear relation between the middle low magnitude and cumulative frequency to obtain the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency. The maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 can be calculated by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency. The calculation results show that: by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency, the estimated maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 is closer to the observed maximum earthquake magnitude in one seismic period or episode than that estimated by using the relation between magnitude and cumulative frequency.The later one is often overestimated. The evolutional characteristics of the relation curve between magnitude and cumulative frequency, and the estimated maximum earthquake magnitude M 1 by using the linear relation between magnitude and interval frequency can give the new information in the medium long term earthquake trend prediction for one seismic period or episode. The investigation shows that the seismic episode started from 1979 in China is coming to the end, a seismic ally quiet period is close to the end in the area of the North Eastern side of Pamirs.
引文
1冯浩等 ,中国地震简目 ,1 997。
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[1 0 ] 张立人 .华北第四地震期最大地震震级的估计 [J].中国地震 ,1 987,3(2 ) :42 - 46
[1 ] Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Seismicity of the earth[J].Geol Soc Am Spec Pap,1 941 ,34(1 ) :1 - 1 33
[2 ] 傅征祥 .中国大陆地震活动性力学研究 [M].北京 :地震出版社 ,1 997.2 68- 2 72 .
[3] Bender B.Maximum likelihood estimation ofb values formagnitude group data[J].B SSA,1 983,73(3) :831 - 851 .
[4] 程德利 ,张裕中 .b值的数字模拟 [J].地震学报 ,1 986,8(增刊 ) :2 5- 35.
[5] 周惠兰 .中国历史大地震的矩震级 [J].地球物理学报 ,1 984,2 7(4) :360 - 371 .
[6] Pacheco JF,Sykes L R.Seismic moment catalog of large shallow earthquakes1 90 0 to1 989[J].B SS A82 (3) :1 30 6- 1 349.
[7] Scholz C. Scaling lows for large earthquakes :consequences for physical models[J].B SS A,1 982 ,72 (1 ) :1 - 1 4.
[8] 马宗晋 ,汪良谋 .中国大震形势研究的述评与形势预测 [A].国家地震局分析预报中心 .中国地震大形势预测研究 [C].北京 :地震出版社 ,1 990 .9- 2 4 .
[9] 许绍燮 ,沈佩文 .地震活动性图像 [J].地震学报 ,1 982 ,4(3) :2 39- 2 4 9.
[1 0 ] 张立人 .华北第四地震期最大地震震级的估计 [J].中国地震 ,1 987,3(2 ) :42 - 46
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