综合前兆异常月频次在地震预报中的应用及其意义
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摘要
依据中国地震局分析预报中心的周、月会商会和年度会商会所提供的综合前兆异常，即震前所提出的各类前兆异常，研究了中国大陆地区内的综合前兆异常月频次在地震预报中的应用和时空演化特征。该结果有利于预报水平的提高和对前兆异常实质的进一步认识，并可从中了解大区域应力场的加强过程和空间演化过程，为研究地震动力学、地震活动幕提供了前兆方面的资料。此外，由于是应用震前提出的前兆异常从大区域内进行的地震总结，不同于以往震例总结中的以具体地震为目标的局部总结，因而提出了一些新问题、新思路。
All kinds of anomalies provided by the weekly, monthly and yearly seismic symposiums are used comprehensively to study the application of the frequency of the precursors to earthquake prediction within the mainland of and China spatial temporal evolution of seismicity. This research will be beneficial to improve the scientific level of earthquake prediction and will lead to deepen understanding of seismic precursors, by which we can also know more about the increasing process and spatial evolution of the large scale stress field. The results in this paper provide background precursory information for the research on seismic dynamic and seismic episodes. The case analysis of earthquake in this paper is based on the precursory anomalies instead of some definite events within some special areas, which has been usually done in previous researches. Some new questions and new ideas are proposed.
All kinds of anomalies provided by the weekly, monthly and yearly seismic symposiums are used comprehensively to study the application of the frequency of the precursors to earthquake prediction within the mainland of and China spatial temporal evolution of seismicity. This research will be beneficial to improve the scientific level of earthquake prediction and will lead to deepen understanding of seismic precursors, by which we can also know more about the increasing process and spatial evolution of the large scale stress field. The results in this paper provide background precursory information for the research on seismic dynamic and seismic episodes. The case analysis of earthquake in this paper is based on the precursory anomalies instead of some definite events within some special areas, which has been usually done in previous researches. Some new questions and new ideas are proposed.
引文
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2 梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等. 中国地震预报概论. 北京:地震出版社,1993. 316～318
3 马宗晋. 华北地壳的多(应力集中)点应力场与地震. 地震地质,1980,2(1):1～11
4 冯德益,楼世博,林命周,等. 模糊数学方法与应用. 北京:地震出版社,1985. 94～95
5 国家地震局分析预报中心. 中国地震趋势预测研究(1998年度). 北京:地震出版社,1997.78～79
6 李献智,高旭. 中国大陆强震前兆时空分布的大尺度特征初探. 地震,1993,13(3):44～51
7 李献智. 强震远场前兆异常在地震预报中的应用. 地震,1996,16(1):39～44
8 焦明若,张国民. 地震前兆复杂性成因机理研究的讨论(二):地震前兆复杂性成因机理. 地震,1998,18(2):112～118
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