时间和费用不确定的网络计划资源均衡优化
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摘要
研究了基于网络计划活动的时间、费用是随机分布,且活动持续时间上费用分配(时间—费用模型)非均匀分布的工期固定—单资源(投资资金)均衡优化问题。对时间和费用具有不确定性的网络计划进行Monte-Carlo仿真以及仿真输出的统计分析,获得了n次仿真输出结果的代表性样本。以代表性样本的仿真输出数据构造一个确定性网络计划,并根据实际情况假定该确定性网络计划各活动持续时间上费用的分配服从Weibull分布,由此在整个周期内迭加得到一个多峰的Weibill时间—费用模型。最后,采用启发式的“削峰填谷法”对呈现“高峰”和“低谷”落差很大的,具有很强的不均衡性Weibill时间—费用模型进行均衡优化,得到了一个较为均衡的投资强度分布。
The optimization of Network Scheduling concerning the fixed completion time-resource leveling was studied.The time and cost of Network Scheduling activities are probabilistic,and the time-cost model isn’t uniform distribution.A Monte-Carlo simulation model of Network Scheduling was established,and simulation output data of time and cost were analyzed.The methods for statistical analysis of getting a representative sample were studied.A Determinate Network Scheduling was constructed according to the representative sample of the simulation output data.The time-cost model of the determinate Network Scheduling activities was assumed as Weibull distribution,and a multi-apex Weibull time-cost model was presented counting the cost of every activity in the same time during the life time.Finally,the heuristic method of leveling resource need peak was studied,and a more leveling time-cost distribution model was gained.
The optimization of Network Scheduling concerning the fixed completion time-resource leveling was studied.The time and cost of Network Scheduling activities are probabilistic,and the time-cost model isn’t uniform distribution.A Monte-Carlo simulation model of Network Scheduling was established,and simulation output data of time and cost were analyzed.The methods for statistical analysis of getting a representative sample were studied.A Determinate Network Scheduling was constructed according to the representative sample of the simulation output data.The time-cost model of the determinate Network Scheduling activities was assumed as Weibull distribution,and a multi-apex Weibull time-cost model was presented counting the cost of every activity in the same time during the life time.Finally,the heuristic method of leveling resource need peak was studied,and a more leveling time-cost distribution model was gained.
引文
[1]徐哲,冯允成.网络计划进度的风险分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,(4):24-28.
[2]徐哲,冯允成.复杂系统研制费用Weibull分布的研究[J].北京航空航天大学学报(自然版),1998,24(2):224-227.
[3]冯允成.活动网络分析[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1990.
[4]朱宏亮.项目进度管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002.
[5]By Leroy J Isidore,W Edward Back.Probabilistic Optimal-Cost Scheduling[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,November/December 2001,431-437.
[6]林志荣,朱宏道.网络计划中资源均衡优化的研究[J].中国管理科学,2000,8(3):39-42.
[7]孙锡衡,刘敏.资源均衡优化的“削峰法”[J].中国网络计划技术大全[M].北京:地震出版社,1993,584-588.
[8]戴建国.活动网络资源均衡问题及其遗传算法[J].系统工程学报,1996,11(2):29-36.
[9]Jeroy J Isidore,W Edward Back.Multiple Simulation Analysis for Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Integration[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,May/June 2002,211-219.
[10]丁建立,陈增强,等.基于混合蚂蚁算法的网络资源均衡与优化[J].仪器仪表学报,2003,24(增刊):592-595.
[11]A R Gaiduk,Y A Vershinin,M J West.Neural network and optimization problems[J].Proceedings of the 2002 IEEE International Conference on Control Application,2002,Glasgow,Scotland,U.K.
[2]徐哲,冯允成.复杂系统研制费用Weibull分布的研究[J].北京航空航天大学学报(自然版),1998,24(2):224-227.
[3]冯允成.活动网络分析[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1990.
[4]朱宏亮.项目进度管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002.
[5]By Leroy J Isidore,W Edward Back.Probabilistic Optimal-Cost Scheduling[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,November/December 2001,431-437.
[6]林志荣,朱宏道.网络计划中资源均衡优化的研究[J].中国管理科学,2000,8(3):39-42.
[7]孙锡衡,刘敏.资源均衡优化的“削峰法”[J].中国网络计划技术大全[M].北京:地震出版社,1993,584-588.
[8]戴建国.活动网络资源均衡问题及其遗传算法[J].系统工程学报,1996,11(2):29-36.
[9]Jeroy J Isidore,W Edward Back.Multiple Simulation Analysis for Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Integration[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,May/June 2002,211-219.
[10]丁建立,陈增强,等.基于混合蚂蚁算法的网络资源均衡与优化[J].仪器仪表学报,2003,24(增刊):592-595.
[11]A R Gaiduk,Y A Vershinin,M J West.Neural network and optimization problems[J].Proceedings of the 2002 IEEE International Conference on Control Application,2002,Glasgow,Scotland,U.K.
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