跟踪式后续显著地震的模糊预测

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英文篇名：TRACE TYPE FUZZY METHOD PREDICTIN FOLLOW-UP SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES 中文刊名：华南地震 英文刊名：SOUTH CHINA JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY 作者：林命周 ; 冯德益 ; 姚立 ; 虞雪君 英文作者：Lin Mingzhou ; Feng Deyi ; Yao Lixun ; Yu Xuejun (Seismological Bureau of Shanghai City Shanghai 200062)(Seismological Bureau of Tianjin City ; Tianjin 300201)(Seismological Bureau of Zhejiang Province ; Hangzhou 310013) 中文关键词：地震预报 ; 模糊聚类分析 ; 显著地震 ; 软划分 英文关键词：Earthquake prediction ; Fuzzy cluster analysis ; Significant earthquake Soft division 出版日期：1997-09-30 机构：上海市地震局!上海，200062,天津市地震局!天津，300201,浙江省地震局!杭州，310013,浙江省地震局!杭州，310013 年：1997 期：03 出版单位：华南地震

摘要

构思了一种跟踪式后续显著地震的模糊预测方法。以我国1996年以来的127个Ms≥5．0地震序列为原始资料样本，预先对地震类别序列作了模糊化处理，并以模糊聚类软划分为处理方法对样本进行了内检。结果表明，跟踪式报准率可达69％；自然语言含义下的跟踪式报对率达91％，效果比目前常用的方法有所提高，对显著地震发生后的趋势跟踪有一定实用价值。
A trace type fuzzy method for Predicting follow-up significant earthquakes was worked out.Taking the seismic sequences of 127 earthquakes with Ms≥ 5. 0 since 1996 in China as the original samples of data, the inner-check was carried out for the samples by the processing method of fuzzy cluster soft division, and the fuzzy processing was conducted for earthquake categ0ry sequence beforehand.The inner-check results show that correct prediction rates both time and megnitude can be reached to 69 % and the trace type correct prediction rates under the meaning of natural language up to 91%, being more effective than usual method. This method is of some practical values for trend analysis after the occurrence of a significant earthquake.

引文

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