用门限自回归建模对山西地区地震活动进行预测
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摘要
利用门限自回归原理对山西地区未来地震活动进行了预测。结果表明，山西地区至２０００年可能发生的最大地震的震级为ＭＬ５．３，而１９９７年可能发生的最大地震震级为ＭＬ４．１。认为，在该区未来几年内发生ＭＳ≥６．０地震的可能性不大。
The failure forms of the buried pipeline,the influence factors of pipeline damage and the damage grades have been related The mathod and steps of the earthquake damage prediction of the buried pipeline using fuzzy mathematic method,and the earthquake damage prediction of the water supply pipeline in Xinzhou by this method have been expounded,the results of the earthquake damage prediction under the effect of the intensities Ⅶ～Ⅸ have been given
The failure forms of the buried pipeline,the influence factors of pipeline damage and the damage grades have been related The mathod and steps of the earthquake damage prediction of the buried pipeline using fuzzy mathematic method,and the earthquake damage prediction of the water supply pipeline in Xinzhou by this method have been expounded,the results of the earthquake damage prediction under the effect of the intensities Ⅶ～Ⅸ have been given
引文
1郭大庆，杨立明．利用门限自回归建模和样条函数拟合方法研究甘肃东南部地区地震活动特征．西北地震学报，1992；（2）：20～292孙文福，顾浩鼎．2000年前辽宁地区地震活动趋势预测．东北地震研究，1995；（3）：3～12
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