防疫与防震
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摘要
在地震预报上大多数人的思路、大多数人的行为进入了误区。在地震预报上宏观异常优于微观异常、群发异常优于单项异常、集中异常优于分散异常, 在地震预报上抓集中群发的宏观异常是其关键。中长期预报总是根据部分信息做出的, 自然应有很大的不确定性, 而短临预报是在把握大量充分信息基础上做出的, 愈是大地震愈有明显的临震信息, 根据大量临震信息做出的预测应有更大的确定性, 要获得明确减灾效果的地震预报, 应转向千方百计获取强震临震信息上来。一旦群众有了相应的知识、树立了牢固的地震可报的信心、知道了自己参与的重要、乐于观察自然、善于观察自然、看到异常马上核实、报告, 职能部门认真落实, 我相信人口稠密地区6级以上强震基本上不应虚报或漏报。
The road and action of most people seem to enter a mistake in earthquake prediction. Macro-abnormality is superior to micro-abnormality, group abnormality is superior to single abnormality, concentrative abnormality is superior to separate abnormality. Seizing concentrative group abnormality is vital in earthquake prediction. Middle and long term prediction is base on a few information, so there is large uncertainty, short term prediction is base on plenty of useful information,there are more apparent abnormality for large earthquakes,so much more abnormal information can be got, it will decrease the uncertainty in prediction. Once people has observed the abnormal phenomenon and informs it to the authority immediately, it seems that the earthquake prediction is very hopeful.
The road and action of most people seem to enter a mistake in earthquake prediction. Macro-abnormality is superior to micro-abnormality, group abnormality is superior to single abnormality, concentrative abnormality is superior to separate abnormality. Seizing concentrative group abnormality is vital in earthquake prediction. Middle and long term prediction is base on a few information, so there is large uncertainty, short term prediction is base on plenty of useful information,there are more apparent abnormality for large earthquakes,so much more abnormal information can be got, it will decrease the uncertainty in prediction. Once people has observed the abnormal phenomenon and informs it to the authority immediately, it seems that the earthquake prediction is very hopeful.
引文
[1] 徐好民.征兆地质学在张北尚义地震预测中的应用及其意义.地震地质,1998,20(2):131134
[2] 徐好民.卫星热红外地震预报研究新进展、地球信息科学,2001,3(4):1218
[3] 徐好民.中国2004年度地震趋势预测.见:中国地震局地质研究所,2004年度地震会商报告中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2004年度地震危险性预测研究,2003:7083
[4] 徐好民.2004地震可报 人人有责 科学普及全民防震.见:中国地震局地质研究所.2004年度地震会商报告中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2004年度地震危险性预测研究.2004:113119
[5] 徐好民.唐山地震的经验教训在哪里?见:徐好民.地象资料 征兆地质学 地震预报.北京:北京图书馆出版社,1998:892
[2] 徐好民.卫星热红外地震预报研究新进展、地球信息科学,2001,3(4):1218
[3] 徐好民.中国2004年度地震趋势预测.见:中国地震局地质研究所,2004年度地震会商报告中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2004年度地震危险性预测研究,2003:7083
[4] 徐好民.2004地震可报 人人有责 科学普及全民防震.见:中国地震局地质研究所.2004年度地震会商报告中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2004年度地震危险性预测研究.2004:113119
[5] 徐好民.唐山地震的经验教训在哪里?见:徐好民.地象资料 征兆地质学 地震预报.北京:北京图书馆出版社,1998:892
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