应用极值理论研究台湾和华东地区中强地震活动的相关性

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英文篇名：A study of the correlation between moderate earthquakes in Taiwan and in East China region using extreme-value theory 中文刊名：地震学刊 英文刊名：Journal of Seismology 作者：夏成明 ; 姜先畴 ; 张寅生 ; 陈德兴 英文作者：XIA Chengming ; JIANG Xianchou ; ZHANG Yinsheng ; CHEN Dexing(Seismological Bureau of Chuzhou City ; Chuzhou 239000 ; China) 中文关键词：极值理论 ; 地震活动相关性 ; 地震复发周期 ; 发震概率 英文关键词：extreme-value theory ; correlation of earthquake occurrences ; recurrence period of earthquakes ; probability of earthquake occurrence 出版日期：2002-12-30 机构：滁州市地震局,滁州市地震局,滁州市地震局,滁州市地震局 安徽滁州239000 ,安徽滁州239000 ,安徽滁州239000 ,安徽滁州239000 年：2002 期：04 出版单位：地震学刊

摘要

运用极值分布理论对1970～1999年间台湾和华东地区的地震资料进行统计性研究,得出其地震相应震级的复发周期[T(M)]、理论发震次数(η)和华东地区中强地震的发震概率阈值(PO)。通过对T(M)的同比分析,发现两地中强地震存在着较好的相关性。用以上研究的结果对华东地区5级以上地震的发震概率、发震时间和地震强度进行综合判定,效果较好。
A statistical study is made of the data of earthquakes in Taiwan and in East China between 1970～1999 using extremevalue theory. As a result, the recurrence periods , the theoretical frequences (n) for earthquakes of various magnitudes as well as the thresholds of the probability of earthquake occurrences (P0) for moderate earthquakes in East China region are obtained. Based on a comparative analysis of the T(M), it is found that rather good correlation exists between the moderate earthquakes in the two regions. A combined a posterior estimation is made of the probabilities of earthquake occurrence, the origin times and the magnitudes for the earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in the East China region in this period using the results of the above mentioned study and rather good results are obtained.

引文

[1]　陈培善,林邦慧.极值理论在中长期地震预报中的应用[J].地球物理学报,1973(16):6-16.
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