四川省滑坡灾害记录分析
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摘要
在滑坡记录的基础上,结合地质、气温及降水分布,对四川省滑坡灾害进行了系统分析。通过对1949～2001年四川省的400起滑坡灾害数据的研究,分析了降雨、温度及地震对滑坡发生的影响,建立了滑坡的发生概率与季节变化的分布图。此外,还对滑坡体积的频数进行了统计,建立了累计频数百分比与滑坡方量的定量关系,并与香港地区进行了比较。
Landslides,defined as the movement of a mass of rock,debris or earth down a slope,can be triggered by a variety of external stimulus,such as intense rainfall,earthquake shaking,water level change,storm waves,rapid stream erosion or some human activities that cause a rapid increase in shear stress or decrease in shear strength of slope-forming materials.They can result in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions.Based on the published records of landslides,it is found that Sichuan Province takes up the highest percent in China.This paper presents a landslide-inventory-based framework for systematic landslide hazard analysis by employing historical landslide data in Sichuan Province,coupling with geological,geomorphologic,climatic,and rainfall data.Based on 400 landslide data from 1949 to 2001,the seasonal distributions of landslides are established and compared with the seasonal rainfall variation.The cumulative fatalities and injuries caused by landslides increase with the cumulative rainfall in Sichuan Province,indicating a strong correlation between rainfall and landslide consequences.The frequency-volume relationship for landslide in Sichuan has been considered.Based on previous study,the cell size is selected as logarithmic.While the data available for analysis is only 89,the relationship is not sufficiently representative.However,it is obvious that it has the same distribution as Hong Kong,except that the scale of landslides is different:most of the reported landslides have volume exceeding 100 000 m3,and the majority of the landslides in Hong Kong have a volume less than 500 m3.In addition,the relationship in Hong Kong is updated on the basis of landslide data from 1992– 2001.And in the analysis,the data that just has a dim range is not included and for those that have clear range,the average values are used.The average annual fatality and injury rates in Sichuan Province caused by landslide are 49.88% and 28.06%,respectively.
Landslides,defined as the movement of a mass of rock,debris or earth down a slope,can be triggered by a variety of external stimulus,such as intense rainfall,earthquake shaking,water level change,storm waves,rapid stream erosion or some human activities that cause a rapid increase in shear stress or decrease in shear strength of slope-forming materials.They can result in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions.Based on the published records of landslides,it is found that Sichuan Province takes up the highest percent in China.This paper presents a landslide-inventory-based framework for systematic landslide hazard analysis by employing historical landslide data in Sichuan Province,coupling with geological,geomorphologic,climatic,and rainfall data.Based on 400 landslide data from 1949 to 2001,the seasonal distributions of landslides are established and compared with the seasonal rainfall variation.The cumulative fatalities and injuries caused by landslides increase with the cumulative rainfall in Sichuan Province,indicating a strong correlation between rainfall and landslide consequences.The frequency-volume relationship for landslide in Sichuan has been considered.Based on previous study,the cell size is selected as logarithmic.While the data available for analysis is only 89,the relationship is not sufficiently representative.However,it is obvious that it has the same distribution as Hong Kong,except that the scale of landslides is different:most of the reported landslides have volume exceeding 100 000 m3,and the majority of the landslides in Hong Kong have a volume less than 500 m3.In addition,the relationship in Hong Kong is updated on the basis of landslide data from 1992– 2001.And in the analysis,the data that just has a dim range is not included and for those that have clear range,the average values are used.The average annual fatality and injury rates in Sichuan Province caused by landslide are 49.88% and 28.06%,respectively.
引文
[1]Dai F C,Lee C F,Ngai Y Y.Landslide risk assessment and management:an overview[J].Engineering Geology,2002,64(1):65–87.
[2]Chau K T,Sze Y L,Fung M K,et al.Landslide hazard analysis for Hong Kong using landslide inventory and GIS[J].Computer and Geosciences,2004,30(4):429–443.
[3]Guzzetti F,Carrara A,Cardinali M,et al.Landslide hazard evaluation:a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study,Central Italy[J].Geomorphology,1999,31:181–216.
[4]Schuster R L,Fleming R W.Economic losses and fatalities due to landslides[J].Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologist,1986,23(1):11–28.
[5]Guzzetti F.Landslide fatalities and the evaluation of landslide risk in Italy[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58:89–107.
[6]Li T,Wang S.Landslide Hazards and Their Mitigation in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1992.
[7]郁淑华.四川盆地泥石流滑坡的时空分布特征及其气象成因分析[J].高原气象,2003,22(增1):83–89.(Yu Shuhua.Analysis of spatial-temporal characteristics of mud-rock flow and landslide in Sichuan basin and its meteorological cause[J].Plateau Meteorology,2003,22(Supp.1):83–89.(in Chinese))
[8]汪敏.滑坡灾害风险分析系统理论及在港渝地区应用研究[博士学位论文][D].重庆:重庆大学,2001.(Wang Min.Research on the theory of landslides hazard risk analysis and its application to Hong Kong and Chongqing[Ph.D.Thesis][D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2001.(in Chinese))
[9]张梁,张亚成,罗元华.地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M].北京:地质出版社,1998.(Zhang Liang,Zhang Yacheng,Luo Yuanhua.The Theory and Application of Geological Hazards Evaluation[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1998.(in Chinese))
[10]Soeters R,Westen V C J.Slope instability,recognition,analysis,and donations[A].In:Turner A K,Schuster R L ed.Landslides:Investigation and Mitigation,Special Report 247,Transportation Research Board,National Research Council[C].Washington,D.C.:National Academy Press,1996.129–177.
[11]Dai F C,Lee C F.Frequency-volume relation and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides[J].Engineering Geology,2001,59(3/4):253–266.
[2]Chau K T,Sze Y L,Fung M K,et al.Landslide hazard analysis for Hong Kong using landslide inventory and GIS[J].Computer and Geosciences,2004,30(4):429–443.
[3]Guzzetti F,Carrara A,Cardinali M,et al.Landslide hazard evaluation:a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study,Central Italy[J].Geomorphology,1999,31:181–216.
[4]Schuster R L,Fleming R W.Economic losses and fatalities due to landslides[J].Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologist,1986,23(1):11–28.
[5]Guzzetti F.Landslide fatalities and the evaluation of landslide risk in Italy[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58:89–107.
[6]Li T,Wang S.Landslide Hazards and Their Mitigation in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1992.
[7]郁淑华.四川盆地泥石流滑坡的时空分布特征及其气象成因分析[J].高原气象,2003,22(增1):83–89.(Yu Shuhua.Analysis of spatial-temporal characteristics of mud-rock flow and landslide in Sichuan basin and its meteorological cause[J].Plateau Meteorology,2003,22(Supp.1):83–89.(in Chinese))
[8]汪敏.滑坡灾害风险分析系统理论及在港渝地区应用研究[博士学位论文][D].重庆:重庆大学,2001.(Wang Min.Research on the theory of landslides hazard risk analysis and its application to Hong Kong and Chongqing[Ph.D.Thesis][D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2001.(in Chinese))
[9]张梁,张亚成,罗元华.地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M].北京:地质出版社,1998.(Zhang Liang,Zhang Yacheng,Luo Yuanhua.The Theory and Application of Geological Hazards Evaluation[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1998.(in Chinese))
[10]Soeters R,Westen V C J.Slope instability,recognition,analysis,and donations[A].In:Turner A K,Schuster R L ed.Landslides:Investigation and Mitigation,Special Report 247,Transportation Research Board,National Research Council[C].Washington,D.C.:National Academy Press,1996.129–177.
[11]Dai F C,Lee C F.Frequency-volume relation and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides[J].Engineering Geology,2001,59(3/4):253–266.
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