地震前兆的复杂性及地震预报、预警、预防综合决策问题的讨论——浅释唐山、海城、松潘、丽江等大地震的经验教训
|
摘要
唐山地震、海城地震、松潘地震和丽江地震等大地震的观测与预报实践,在科学上提出许多问题,但最重要的是地震前兆复杂性的理解和认识问题。从上述大地震的重要观测资料中,得到对大地震的短临前兆复杂性及其表现形式的新理解,认为:短临前兆异常不同于趋势异常,异常现象的突发性、差异性、特殊的无序和不稳定性,不可重复性是其主要特征。其"场,源"关系,也不同于一般概念的"场,源"关系,它具有"混沌"性能。前兆异常复杂性产生的根源不仅是因为孕震系统是复杂的系统,更为重要的是,当系统进入非弹性应变阶段后,受到非线性动力学一般原理所支配。因此地震及其前兆现象似乎是不可能在纯力学的基础上加以探索研究的,准确地说,它们应该视为在远离平衡的条件下起作用的非线性动力学体系一般性问题的组成部分。块、带、源、兆整体协同分析和长(期),中(期)、短(期)、临震预报相结合的渐进式地震预报思路,是地震预报成功与失败的实践经验总结。只有在整体上,从时间、空间结构统一性上进行综合分析研究,才有可能抓住地震及其前兆复杂性问题的本质。该文还讨论了地震及其预报对社会的影响,和地震预报需要面对的社会问题,以及制约、影响地震预报和预警的因素。文中认为与其它自然灾害相比,地震预报和灾害预警的难度更大,每一步骤的决策,无论是警报发布、级别调整、警报的解除都包含了许多不确定性和风险。实践经验证明:政府对地震预报、预警、预防的综合决策是有效减轻地震灾害和风险的关键。
Many scientific problems,especially to understand and investigate the seismic precursor's complexity,has been proposed from the practice in observing and predicting Tangshan,Haicheng,Songpan,Lijiang strong earthquakes etc.According to the observed data of above earthquakes,we have a new conception concerning strong earthquake short-erm precursory complexity and its behavior.That is,short-erm precursory anomaly differs from trend anomaly,and the abruptness,divergence,special disorder,instability and unrepeatable property are their main characteristics.The relationship of "ield"and "ource"is also different from the normal "ield"and "ource"relationship;it has "haos"behavior.The origin of precursor anomaly complexity is not only resulted from the complicated system of seismogenic system,but the most importance is that the system is controlled by normal theory of non-inear geodynamics when it enters the inelastic strain deformation stage.So it seems to be impossible to study earthquakes and their precursory phenomena based on pure mechanics,they should be viewed as a part of non-inear dynamics system that acts as far away from equilibrium condition.Correlation analysis on seismic block,belt,source and precursor and progressive seismic prediction together with long-erm,middle-erm,short-erm and imminent judgment,is the summary of practice in successful and failure earthquake prediction.Only comprehensive analysis combining with time and space structures in a whole is able to grasp the basis of complexity of earthquakes and their precursors.We also discussed the earthquake prediction influence to the society,the social problems that prediction needs to face and the factors that confine or affect earthquake prediction and early warming.Comparing with other nature disasters,earthquake prediction and early warming are more difficult to do,and the decision in every step includes many uncertainties and risks whatever the warning issue,warning level adjustment or warming removal.The practice proves that government′s synthetic decision to earthquake prediction,early warning and prevention are the key to effective reduce seismic hazard and risk.
Many scientific problems,especially to understand and investigate the seismic precursor's complexity,has been proposed from the practice in observing and predicting Tangshan,Haicheng,Songpan,Lijiang strong earthquakes etc.According to the observed data of above earthquakes,we have a new conception concerning strong earthquake short-erm precursory complexity and its behavior.That is,short-erm precursory anomaly differs from trend anomaly,and the abruptness,divergence,special disorder,instability and unrepeatable property are their main characteristics.The relationship of "ield"and "ource"is also different from the normal "ield"and "ource"relationship;it has "haos"behavior.The origin of precursor anomaly complexity is not only resulted from the complicated system of seismogenic system,but the most importance is that the system is controlled by normal theory of non-inear geodynamics when it enters the inelastic strain deformation stage.So it seems to be impossible to study earthquakes and their precursory phenomena based on pure mechanics,they should be viewed as a part of non-inear dynamics system that acts as far away from equilibrium condition.Correlation analysis on seismic block,belt,source and precursor and progressive seismic prediction together with long-erm,middle-erm,short-erm and imminent judgment,is the summary of practice in successful and failure earthquake prediction.Only comprehensive analysis combining with time and space structures in a whole is able to grasp the basis of complexity of earthquakes and their precursors.We also discussed the earthquake prediction influence to the society,the social problems that prediction needs to face and the factors that confine or affect earthquake prediction and early warming.Comparing with other nature disasters,earthquake prediction and early warming are more difficult to do,and the decision in every step includes many uncertainties and risks whatever the warning issue,warning level adjustment or warming removal.The practice proves that government′s synthetic decision to earthquake prediction,early warning and prevention are the key to effective reduce seismic hazard and risk.
引文
[1]尼科里斯,普利高津.探索复杂性[M].成都:四川教育出版社,1986.
[2]朱凤鸣,吴戈等编著.一九七五年海城地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[3]四川省地震局.一九七六年松潘地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
[4]国家地震局《一九七六年唐山地震》编辑组.一九七六年唐山地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[5]陈立德等编著.一九七六年龙陵地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
[6]云南省地震局.一九九六年丽江地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.
[2]朱凤鸣,吴戈等编著.一九七五年海城地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[3]四川省地震局.一九七六年松潘地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
[4]国家地震局《一九七六年唐山地震》编辑组.一九七六年唐山地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[5]陈立德等编著.一九七六年龙陵地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
[6]云南省地震局.一九九六年丽江地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心