多元统计组合模型在地震综合预报中的应用
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摘要
针对目前地震综合预报中的一些问题 ,利用近 30年来迅速发展的多元统计分析中主成分分析、判别分析组成多元统计组合模型 ,在众多的地震预报指标 (预报因子 )中采用信息最大化方法 ,选择对中期预测信息累积贡献率大于 90 %地震预报指标 ,分别进行相关分析、预测、检验 ,最终应用马氏距离判别作外推综合预报 ;并以华北地区 (30°～ 4 2°N ,10 8°～ 12 5°E)为例进行模型的应用检验 ,初步研究已取得了较好的效果 .
Considering the problems that should be solved in the synthetic earthquake prediction at present, a new model is proposed in the paper. It is called joint multivariate statistical model combined by principal component analysis with discriminatory analysis. Principal component analysis and discriminatory analysis are very important theories in multivariate statistical analysis that has developed quickly in the late thirty years. By means of maximization information method, we choose several earthquake prediction factors whose cumulative proportions of total sample variances are beyond 90% from numerous earthquake prediction factors. The paper applies regression analysis and Mahalanobis discrimination to extrapolating synthetic prediction. Furthermore, we use this model to characterize and predict earthquakes in North China (30°～42°N, 108°～125°E) and better prediction results are obtained.
Considering the problems that should be solved in the synthetic earthquake prediction at present, a new model is proposed in the paper. It is called joint multivariate statistical model combined by principal component analysis with discriminatory analysis. Principal component analysis and discriminatory analysis are very important theories in multivariate statistical analysis that has developed quickly in the late thirty years. By means of maximization information method, we choose several earthquake prediction factors whose cumulative proportions of total sample variances are beyond 90% from numerous earthquake prediction factors. The paper applies regression analysis and Mahalanobis discrimination to extrapolating synthetic prediction. Furthermore, we use this model to characterize and predict earthquakes in North China (30°～42°N, 108°～125°E) and better prediction results are obtained.
引文
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周翠英,朱元清,王红卫,等.1999.华北地区地震学指标的定量对比筛选及其综合预报方法研究[J].地震学报,21(2):208～213
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方开泰.1989.实用多元统计分析[M ].上海:上海华东师范大学出版社,179～208,291～336
李平,朱元清,肖兰喜,等.2000.华北地区强震前空间动态场中短期综合预报研究[J].地震,20(2):37～47
陆远忠,吕悦军,郑月君.1994.地震演化指数YH 与细胞自动机模型检验[J].地震,(增刊):12～17
陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.2002.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M ].成都:成都地图出版社,17～41
罗兰格.2002.我国地震综合预报方法研究的回顾与展望[J].华北地震科学,20(4):1～18
秦保燕,刘江峰.1989.甘肃省及邻区中强震前调制小震异常指标研究[A].见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集,地震学专辑[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,473～501
王炜,戴维乐,黄冰树.1994.地震震级的统计分布及其地震因子Mf值在华北中强以上地震前的异常变化[J].中国地震,10(增刊):95～129
王炜,刘震华.1987.地震时间间隔的统计分布及其地震危险度D值在华北大震前的异常变化[J].地震学报,9(2):113～127
吴佳翼,曹学锋.1983.地震活动性的定量化问题[J].地震,(6):13～16
周翠英,朱元清,王红卫,等.1999.华北地区地震学指标的定量对比筛选及其综合预报方法研究[J].地震学报,21(2):208～213
JohnsonRA ,WichernDW .1992.AppliedMultivariateStatisticalAndysis,5thed[M ].EnglewoodCliffs:PrenticeHall,426～461
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