近期国际地震预测预报研究进展的几个侧面
|
摘要
本文从国际组织、国际计划、科学出版物、主要代表性人物及其学术观点、实际地震预测与地震前兆检验等方面 ,介绍了 2 0世纪 90年代后期以来国际上地震预测预报研究进展的几个侧面 ,这些进展在一定程度上反映了此间地震预测预报研究从“低谷”走向新的发展的思想脉络。
Some developing aspects in earthquake foreasting and prediction study since the late 1990s are reviewed,reflecting the dramatic change from “Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted”(1997) to “A Seismic Shift in Thinking”(2004).The review includes international organizations dealing with earthquake forecasting/prediction study,international cooperative research projects,scientific publication,representative scientists and their ideas,and retrospective and/or forward tests of earthquake precursors and forecasting/prediction schemes.
Some developing aspects in earthquake foreasting and prediction study since the late 1990s are reviewed,reflecting the dramatic change from “Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted”(1997) to “A Seismic Shift in Thinking”(2004).The review includes international organizations dealing with earthquake forecasting/prediction study,international cooperative research projects,scientific publication,representative scientists and their ideas,and retrospective and/or forward tests of earthquake precursors and forecasting/prediction schemes.
引文
BenZion,Y .,Dahmen,K .,Lyakhovsky,V .,Ertas,D .andAgnon,A .,1999.Self drivenmodeswitchingofearthquakeactivityonafaultsystem.EPSL ,172:11～21.
BenZion,Y .andLyakhovsky,V .,2002.Acceleratedseismicreleaseandrelatedaspectsofseismictypatternsonearthquakefaults.Pureappl.Geophys.,159:2385～2412.
BenZion,Y .,Eneva,M .andLiu,Y .F .,2003.Largeearthquakecyclesandintermittentcriticalityonheterogeneousfaultsduetoevolvingstressandseismicity.J .Geophys.Res.,108(B6):doi:10.10292002JB002121.
Biagi,R .F .,Ermini,A .,Kingsley,S .P .,Khatkevich,Y .M .andGordeev,E .I .,2000.GroundwaterIoncontentprecursorsofstrongearthquakesinKamchatka(Russia).Pureappl.Geophys.,157:1359～1377.
Chen,C .,2003.Acceleratingseismicityofmoderate sizeearthquakesbeforethe1999ChiChi,Taiwan,earthquake:testingtime predictionoftheself organizingspinodalmodelofearthquakes.Geophys.J .Int.,155:F1～F5.
Crampin,S .,2001.Developingstress monitoringsitesusingcross holeseismologytostress forecastthetimesandmagnitudesoffutureearthquakes.Tectonophysics,338:233～245.
Crampin,S .andChastin,S .,2003.Areviewofshear wavesplittinginthecrack criticalcrust.Geophys.J .Int.,155:221～240.
Crampin,S .,Volti,T .andStef偄nsson,R .,1999.Asuccessfullystress forecastearthquake.Geophys.J .Int.,138:F1～F5.
Crampin,S .,Volti,T .andStef偄nsson,R .,2004.Responseto’Astatisticalevaluationofa’stress forecast’earthquake’byT .Seher&I.G .Main.Geophys.J .Int.,157:194～199.
Cyranoski,D .,2004.Aseismicshiftinthinking.Nature,431:1032～1034.
Deng,J.andSykes,L .R .,1997a.EvolutionofstressfieldinsouthernCaliforniaandtriggeringofmoderate sizeearthquakes:a200 yearperspective.J.Geophys.Res.,102:9859～9886.
Deng,J.andSykes,L .R .,1997b.StressevolutioninsouthernCaliforniaandtriggeringofmoderate,small,andmicro sizeearthquakes.J .Geophys.Res.,102:24411～24435.
Eftaxias,K .,Kapiris,P .,Polygiannakis,J.,Bogris,N .,Kopanas,J .,Antonopoulos,G .,Peratzakis,A .andHadjicontis,V .,2001.Signatureofpendingearthquakefromelectromagneticanomalies.Geophys.Res.Lett.,28:3321～3324.
Eftaxias,K .,Kapiris,P .,Dologlou,E .,Kopanas,J.,Bogris,N .,Antonopoulos,G .,Peratzakis,A .andHadjicontis,V .,2002.EManomaliesbeforetheKozaniearthquake:astudyoftheirbehaviorthroughlaboratoryexperiments.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(8):doi:10.10292001GL013786.
Evans,R .(ed.),1997.SpecialsectionAssessmentofschemesforearthquakeprediction.Geophys.J .Int.,131:413～533.
Geller,R .J.(ed.),1996.SpecialsectionDebateonevaluationoftheVANmethod.Geophys.Res.Lett.,23:1291～1452.
Geller,R .J.,1997.Earthquakeprediction:acriticalreview.Geophys.J.Int.,131:425～450.
Geller,R .J.,Jackson,D .D .,Kagan,Y .Y .andMulargia,F .,1997.Earthquakescannotbepredicted.Science,275:1616～1617.
Giardini,D .,Gruenthal,G .,Shedlock,K .andZhang,P .,2003.TheGSHAPGlobalSeismicHazardMap.In:Lee,W .H .K .,Kanamori,H .,Jennings,P .C .andKisslinger,C .(eds.),InternationalHandbookofEarthquakeandEngineeringSeismology.Amsterdam:AcademicPress,1233～1239.
Gupta,H .K .,2001.Short termearthquakeforecastingmaybefeasibleatKoyna,India.Tectonophysics,338:353～357.
Gupta,H .,Chadha,R .K .andSrinagash,D .(eds.),2001.SpecialissueThenatureofseismicsourcesandthepredictionofearthquakes.Tectonophysics,338:207～357.
Harris,R .A .,1998.Forecastofthe1989LomaPrieta,California,earthquake.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,88:898～916.
Harris,R .A .(ed.),1998.SpecialsectionStresstriggers,stressshadows,andimplicationforseismichazard.J .Geophys.Res.,103:24347～24572.
Harris,R .A .,2003.Stresstriggers,stressshadows,andseismichazard.In:Lee,W .H .K .,Kanamori,H .,Jennings,P .C .andKisslinger,C .(eds.),InternationalHandbookofEarthquakeandEngineeringSeismology.Amsterdam:AcademicPress,1217～1232.
Huang,Q .andNagao,T .,2002.Seismicquiescencebeforethe2000M =73Tottoriearthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(12):doi:10.10292001GL013835.
Huang,Q .,Sobolev,G .A .andNagao,T .,2001.CharacteristicsoftheseismicquiescenceandactivationpatternsbeforetheM =72Kobeearthquake,January17,1995.Tectonophysics,337:99～116.
Huang,Q .,Oncel,O .andSobolev,G .A .,2002.PrecursoryseismicitychangesassociatedwiththeMw=741999August17Izmit(Turkey)earthquake.Geophys.J.Int.,151:235～242.
Jaume,S .C .andSykes,L .R .,1992.ChangesinstateofstressonthesouthernSanAndreasfaultresultingfromtheCaliforniaearthquakesequenceofApriltoJune1992.Science,258:1325～1328.
Jaum啨,S .C .andSykes,L .R .,1999.Evolvingtowardsacriticalpoint:Areviewofacceleratingseismicmoment energyreleasepriortolargeandgreatearthquake.Pureappl.Geophys.,155:279～306.
Kagan,Y .Y .,1996.VANearthquakepredictions anattemptatstatisticalevaluation.Geophys.Res.Lett.,23:1315～1318.
Kagan,Y .Y .,1997.Areearthquakespredictable?Geophys.J .Int.,131:505～525.
Kagan,Y .Y .andJackson,D .D .2000.Probabilisticforecastingofearthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,143:438～453.
Kanamori,H .,2003.Earthquakeprediction:anoverview.In:Lee,W .H .K .,Kanamori,H .,Jennings,P .C .andKisslinger,C .(eds.),InternationalHandbookofEarthquakeandEngineeringSeismology.Amsterdam:AcademicPress,1205～1216.
Karakaisis,G .F .,2003.AcceleratingseismiccrustaldeformationbeforetheIzmit(NWTurkey)largemainshockof1999August17andtheevolutionofitsaftershocksequence.Geophys.J .Int.,153:103～110.
Katsumata,K .andKasahara,M .,1999.Precursoryseismicquiescencebeforethe1994Kurileearthquake(Mw=83)revealedbythreeindependentseismiccatalogs.Pureappl.Geophys.,155:443～470.
Katsumata,K .,Kasahara,M .,Ozawa,S .andIvashchenko,A .,2002.Afiveyearssuper slowaseismicprecursormodelforthe1994M83HokkaidoTohoOkilithosphericearthquakebasedontidegaugedata.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(13):doi:10.10292002GL014982.
KeilisBorok,V .I .,1990.ThelithosphereoftheEarthasanonlinearsystemwithimplicationsforearthquakeprediction.Rev.Geophys.,28:19～34.
KeilisBorok,V .,IsmailZadeh,A .,Kossobokov,V .andShebalin,P .,2001.Non lineardynamicsofthelithosphereandintermediate termearthquakeprediction.Tectonophysics,338:247～260.
KeilisBorok,V .I .andShebalin,P .N .(eds.),1999.SpecialissueDynamicsoflithosphereandearthquakeprediction.Phys.EarthPlanet.Interi.,111:179～327.
Knopoff,L .,2000.ThemagnitudedistributionofdeclusteredearthquakesinSouthernCalifornia.Proc.Nat.Acad.Sci.,97:11880～11884.
Knopoff,L .,Landoni,J.A .andAbinante,M .S .,1992.Dynamicalmodelofanearthquakefaultwithlocalization.Phys.Rev.,A46:7445～7449.
Knopoff,L .,Aki,K .,Allen,C .R .,Rice,J .R .andSykes,L .R .(eds.),1996.Earthquakeprediction:thescientificchallenge.ColloquiumProceedings,Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA ,93:3719～3837.
Kossobokov,V .G .,Romashkova,L .L .,KeilisBorok,V .I.andHealy,J.H .,1999.Testingearthquakepredictionalgorithms:statisticallysignificantadvancepredictionofthelargestearthquakesintheCircumPacific,1992～1997.Phys.EarthPlanet.Interi.,111:187～196.
Liao,C .,Zhang,C .,Wu,M .,Ma,Y .andOu,M .,2003.StresschangeneartheKunlunfaultbeforeandaftertheMs8.1Kunlunearthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(20):doi:10.10292003GL018106.
Liu,J.Y .,Chen,Y .I.,Pulinets,S .A .,Tsai,Y .B .andChuo,Y .J.,2000.Seismo ionoshpericsignaturespriortoM≥60Taiwanearthquakes.Geophys.Res.Lett.,27:3113～3116.
Main,I.G .,1995.Earthquakesascriticalphenomena:implicationsforprobabilisticseismichazardanalysis.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,85:1299～1308.
Main,I.,1996.Statiticalphysics,seismogenesis,andseismichazard.Rev.Geophys.,34:433～462.
Main,I.G .andAlKindy,F .H .,2002.Entropy,energy,andproximitytocriticalityinglobalearthquakepopulations.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(7):doi:10.10292001GL014078.
Matsu’ura,M .,Mora,P .,Donnellan,A .andYin,X .C .(eds.),2002.SpecialsectionEarthquakeprocesses:physicalmodelling,numericalsimulation,anddataanalysis.Pureappl.Geophys.,159:1905～2536.
Melbourne,T .I.andWebb,F .H .,2002.Precursorytransientslipduringthe2001MW =84PeruearthquakesequencefromcontinuousGPS .Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(21):doi:10.10292002GL015533.
Mora,P .,Matsu’ura,M .,Madariaga,R .andMinster,J.B .(eds.),2000.SpecialsectionMicroscopicandmacroscopicsimulation:towardspredictivemodellingoftheearthquakeprocess.Pureappl.Geophys.,157:1817～2383.
Ohnaka,M .,1996.Nonuniformityoftheconstitutivelawparametersforshearruptureandquasistaticnucleationtodynamicrupture:aphysicalmodelofearthquakegenerationprocesses.Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA ,93:3795～3802.
Ohnaka,M .andShen,L .,1999.Scalingoftheshearruptureprocessfromnucleationtodynamicpropagation:implicationsofgeometricirregularityoftherupturingsurfaces.J.Geophys.Res.,104:817～844.
Oncel,A .O .andWyss,M .,2000.Themajorasperitiesofthe1999Mw=74Izmitearthquakedefinedbythemicroseismicityofthetwodecadesbeforeit.Geophys.J .Int.,143:501～506.
Rastogi,B .K .andMandal,P .,1999.Foreshocksandnucleationofsmall tomoderate sizedKoynaearthquakes(India).Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,89:829～836.
Richon,P .,Sabroux,J.C .,Halbwachs,M .,Vandemeulebrouck,J.,Poussielgue,N .,Tabbagh,J.andPunongbayan,R .,2003.RadonanomalyinthesoilofTaalvolcano,thePhilippines:alikelyprecursoroftheM71Mindoroearthquake(1994).Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(9):doi:10.10292003GL016902.
Romachkova,L .L .,Kossobokov,V .G .,Panza,G .F .andCosta,G .,1998.Intermediate termpredictionsofearthquakesinItaly:AlgorithmM8.Pureappl.Geophys.,152:37～55.
Rong,Y .F .andJackson,D .D .,2002.EarthquakepotentialinandaroundChina:estimatedfrompastearthquakes.Geophys.,Res.Lett.,29(16):doi:10.10292002GL015297.
Rundle,J.B .,Turcotte,D .L .andKlein,W .(eds.),2000a.GeoComplexityandthePhysicsofEarthquakes.Washington,D .C .:AGU ,1～284.
Rundle,J .B .,Klein,W .,Tiampo,K .andGross,S .,2000b.Linearpatterndynamicsinnonlinearthresholdsystems.Phys.Rev.,E61:2418～2431.
Rundle,J.B .,Turcotte,D .L .,Shcherbakov,R .,Klein,W .andSammis,C .,2003.Statisticalphysicsapproachtounderstandingthemultiscaledynamicsofearthquakefaultsystems.Rev.Geophys.,41(4):doi:10.10292003RG000135.
Seher,T .andMain,I .G .,2004.Astatisticalevaluationofa’stress forecast’earthquake.Geophys.J.Int.,157:187～193.
Sobolev,G .,2001.TheexamplesofearthquakepreparationinKamchatkaandJapan.Tectonophysics,338:269～279.
Sornette,D .,2000.CriticalPhenomenainComplexSystems.Berlin:SpringerVerlag,1～412.
Sornette,A .andSornette,D .,1990.Earthquakeruptureasacriticalpoint:consequencesfortelluricprecursors.Tectonophysics,179:327～334.
Sornette,D .andSammis,C .G .,1995.Criticalexponentsfromrenomalizationgrouptheoryofearthquakes:implicationsforearthquakeprediction.J .Phys.I.,5:607～619.
Tiampo,K .F .,Rundle,J .B .,McGinnis,S .andGross,S .J.,2002.EigenpatternsinsouthernCaliforniaseismicity.J.Geophys.Res.,107(B12):doi:10.10292001JB000562.
Uyeda,S .,AlDamegh,K .S .,Dologlou,E .andNagao,T .,1999.SomerelationshipbetweenVANseismicelectricsignals(SES)andearthquakeparameters.Tectonophysics,304:41～55.
VereJones,D .andOgata,Y .,2003.Statisticalprinciplesforseismologists.In:Lee,W .H .K .,Kanamori,H .,Jennings,P .C .andKisslinger,C .(eds.),InternationalHandbookofEarthquakeandEngineeringSeismology.Amsterdam:AcademicPress,1573～1586.
Westerhaus,M .,Wyss,M ,Yilmaz,R .andZschau,J .,2002.Correlatingvariationsofbvaluesandcrustaldeformationduringthe1990smayhavepinpointedtheruptureinitiationoftheMw=74Izmitearthquakeof1999August17.Geophys.J .Int.,148:139～152.
Wyss,M .,1997.Cannotearthquakesbepredicted?Science,278:487～488.
Wyss,M .andDmowska,R .(eds.),1997.SpecialissueEarthquakeprediction,state of the art.Pureappl.Geophys.,149:1～264.
Wyss,M .andMartirosyan,A .H .,1998.SeismicquiescencebeforetheM7,1988,Spitakearthquake,Armenia.Geophys.J .Int.,134:329～340.
Wyss,M .,Shimazaki,K .andIto,A .(eds.),1999.SpecialsectionSeismicitypattern,theirstatisticalsignificanceandphysicalmeaning.Pureappl.Geophys.,155:203～726.
Xu,H .J .andKnopoff,L .,1994.Periodicityandchaosinaone dimensionaldynamicalmodelofearthquakes.Phys.Rev.,E50:3577～3581.
BenZion,Y .andLyakhovsky,V .,2002.Acceleratedseismicreleaseandrelatedaspectsofseismictypatternsonearthquakefaults.Pureappl.Geophys.,159:2385～2412.
BenZion,Y .,Eneva,M .andLiu,Y .F .,2003.Largeearthquakecyclesandintermittentcriticalityonheterogeneousfaultsduetoevolvingstressandseismicity.J .Geophys.Res.,108(B6):doi:10.10292002JB002121.
Biagi,R .F .,Ermini,A .,Kingsley,S .P .,Khatkevich,Y .M .andGordeev,E .I .,2000.GroundwaterIoncontentprecursorsofstrongearthquakesinKamchatka(Russia).Pureappl.Geophys.,157:1359～1377.
Chen,C .,2003.Acceleratingseismicityofmoderate sizeearthquakesbeforethe1999ChiChi,Taiwan,earthquake:testingtime predictionoftheself organizingspinodalmodelofearthquakes.Geophys.J .Int.,155:F1～F5.
Crampin,S .,2001.Developingstress monitoringsitesusingcross holeseismologytostress forecastthetimesandmagnitudesoffutureearthquakes.Tectonophysics,338:233～245.
Crampin,S .andChastin,S .,2003.Areviewofshear wavesplittinginthecrack criticalcrust.Geophys.J .Int.,155:221～240.
Crampin,S .,Volti,T .andStef偄nsson,R .,1999.Asuccessfullystress forecastearthquake.Geophys.J .Int.,138:F1～F5.
Crampin,S .,Volti,T .andStef偄nsson,R .,2004.Responseto’Astatisticalevaluationofa’stress forecast’earthquake’byT .Seher&I.G .Main.Geophys.J .Int.,157:194～199.
Cyranoski,D .,2004.Aseismicshiftinthinking.Nature,431:1032～1034.
Deng,J.andSykes,L .R .,1997a.EvolutionofstressfieldinsouthernCaliforniaandtriggeringofmoderate sizeearthquakes:a200 yearperspective.J.Geophys.Res.,102:9859～9886.
Deng,J.andSykes,L .R .,1997b.StressevolutioninsouthernCaliforniaandtriggeringofmoderate,small,andmicro sizeearthquakes.J .Geophys.Res.,102:24411～24435.
Eftaxias,K .,Kapiris,P .,Polygiannakis,J.,Bogris,N .,Kopanas,J .,Antonopoulos,G .,Peratzakis,A .andHadjicontis,V .,2001.Signatureofpendingearthquakefromelectromagneticanomalies.Geophys.Res.Lett.,28:3321～3324.
Eftaxias,K .,Kapiris,P .,Dologlou,E .,Kopanas,J.,Bogris,N .,Antonopoulos,G .,Peratzakis,A .andHadjicontis,V .,2002.EManomaliesbeforetheKozaniearthquake:astudyoftheirbehaviorthroughlaboratoryexperiments.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(8):doi:10.10292001GL013786.
Evans,R .(ed.),1997.SpecialsectionAssessmentofschemesforearthquakeprediction.Geophys.J .Int.,131:413～533.
Geller,R .J.(ed.),1996.SpecialsectionDebateonevaluationoftheVANmethod.Geophys.Res.Lett.,23:1291～1452.
Geller,R .J.,1997.Earthquakeprediction:acriticalreview.Geophys.J.Int.,131:425～450.
Geller,R .J.,Jackson,D .D .,Kagan,Y .Y .andMulargia,F .,1997.Earthquakescannotbepredicted.Science,275:1616～1617.
Giardini,D .,Gruenthal,G .,Shedlock,K .andZhang,P .,2003.TheGSHAPGlobalSeismicHazardMap.In:Lee,W .H .K .,Kanamori,H .,Jennings,P .C .andKisslinger,C .(eds.),InternationalHandbookofEarthquakeandEngineeringSeismology.Amsterdam:AcademicPress,1233～1239.
Gupta,H .K .,2001.Short termearthquakeforecastingmaybefeasibleatKoyna,India.Tectonophysics,338:353～357.
Gupta,H .,Chadha,R .K .andSrinagash,D .(eds.),2001.SpecialissueThenatureofseismicsourcesandthepredictionofearthquakes.Tectonophysics,338:207～357.
Harris,R .A .,1998.Forecastofthe1989LomaPrieta,California,earthquake.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,88:898～916.
Harris,R .A .(ed.),1998.SpecialsectionStresstriggers,stressshadows,andimplicationforseismichazard.J .Geophys.Res.,103:24347～24572.
Harris,R .A .,2003.Stresstriggers,stressshadows,andseismichazard.In:Lee,W .H .K .,Kanamori,H .,Jennings,P .C .andKisslinger,C .(eds.),InternationalHandbookofEarthquakeandEngineeringSeismology.Amsterdam:AcademicPress,1217～1232.
Huang,Q .andNagao,T .,2002.Seismicquiescencebeforethe2000M =73Tottoriearthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(12):doi:10.10292001GL013835.
Huang,Q .,Sobolev,G .A .andNagao,T .,2001.CharacteristicsoftheseismicquiescenceandactivationpatternsbeforetheM =72Kobeearthquake,January17,1995.Tectonophysics,337:99～116.
Huang,Q .,Oncel,O .andSobolev,G .A .,2002.PrecursoryseismicitychangesassociatedwiththeMw=741999August17Izmit(Turkey)earthquake.Geophys.J.Int.,151:235～242.
Jaume,S .C .andSykes,L .R .,1992.ChangesinstateofstressonthesouthernSanAndreasfaultresultingfromtheCaliforniaearthquakesequenceofApriltoJune1992.Science,258:1325～1328.
Jaum啨,S .C .andSykes,L .R .,1999.Evolvingtowardsacriticalpoint:Areviewofacceleratingseismicmoment energyreleasepriortolargeandgreatearthquake.Pureappl.Geophys.,155:279～306.
Kagan,Y .Y .,1996.VANearthquakepredictions anattemptatstatisticalevaluation.Geophys.Res.Lett.,23:1315～1318.
Kagan,Y .Y .,1997.Areearthquakespredictable?Geophys.J .Int.,131:505～525.
Kagan,Y .Y .andJackson,D .D .2000.Probabilisticforecastingofearthquakes.Geophys.J.Int.,143:438～453.
Kanamori,H .,2003.Earthquakeprediction:anoverview.In:Lee,W .H .K .,Kanamori,H .,Jennings,P .C .andKisslinger,C .(eds.),InternationalHandbookofEarthquakeandEngineeringSeismology.Amsterdam:AcademicPress,1205～1216.
Karakaisis,G .F .,2003.AcceleratingseismiccrustaldeformationbeforetheIzmit(NWTurkey)largemainshockof1999August17andtheevolutionofitsaftershocksequence.Geophys.J .Int.,153:103～110.
Katsumata,K .andKasahara,M .,1999.Precursoryseismicquiescencebeforethe1994Kurileearthquake(Mw=83)revealedbythreeindependentseismiccatalogs.Pureappl.Geophys.,155:443～470.
Katsumata,K .,Kasahara,M .,Ozawa,S .andIvashchenko,A .,2002.Afiveyearssuper slowaseismicprecursormodelforthe1994M83HokkaidoTohoOkilithosphericearthquakebasedontidegaugedata.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(13):doi:10.10292002GL014982.
KeilisBorok,V .I .,1990.ThelithosphereoftheEarthasanonlinearsystemwithimplicationsforearthquakeprediction.Rev.Geophys.,28:19～34.
KeilisBorok,V .,IsmailZadeh,A .,Kossobokov,V .andShebalin,P .,2001.Non lineardynamicsofthelithosphereandintermediate termearthquakeprediction.Tectonophysics,338:247～260.
KeilisBorok,V .I .andShebalin,P .N .(eds.),1999.SpecialissueDynamicsoflithosphereandearthquakeprediction.Phys.EarthPlanet.Interi.,111:179～327.
Knopoff,L .,2000.ThemagnitudedistributionofdeclusteredearthquakesinSouthernCalifornia.Proc.Nat.Acad.Sci.,97:11880～11884.
Knopoff,L .,Landoni,J.A .andAbinante,M .S .,1992.Dynamicalmodelofanearthquakefaultwithlocalization.Phys.Rev.,A46:7445～7449.
Knopoff,L .,Aki,K .,Allen,C .R .,Rice,J .R .andSykes,L .R .(eds.),1996.Earthquakeprediction:thescientificchallenge.ColloquiumProceedings,Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA ,93:3719～3837.
Kossobokov,V .G .,Romashkova,L .L .,KeilisBorok,V .I.andHealy,J.H .,1999.Testingearthquakepredictionalgorithms:statisticallysignificantadvancepredictionofthelargestearthquakesintheCircumPacific,1992～1997.Phys.EarthPlanet.Interi.,111:187～196.
Liao,C .,Zhang,C .,Wu,M .,Ma,Y .andOu,M .,2003.StresschangeneartheKunlunfaultbeforeandaftertheMs8.1Kunlunearthquake.Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(20):doi:10.10292003GL018106.
Liu,J.Y .,Chen,Y .I.,Pulinets,S .A .,Tsai,Y .B .andChuo,Y .J.,2000.Seismo ionoshpericsignaturespriortoM≥60Taiwanearthquakes.Geophys.Res.Lett.,27:3113～3116.
Main,I.G .,1995.Earthquakesascriticalphenomena:implicationsforprobabilisticseismichazardanalysis.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,85:1299～1308.
Main,I.,1996.Statiticalphysics,seismogenesis,andseismichazard.Rev.Geophys.,34:433～462.
Main,I.G .andAlKindy,F .H .,2002.Entropy,energy,andproximitytocriticalityinglobalearthquakepopulations.Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(7):doi:10.10292001GL014078.
Matsu’ura,M .,Mora,P .,Donnellan,A .andYin,X .C .(eds.),2002.SpecialsectionEarthquakeprocesses:physicalmodelling,numericalsimulation,anddataanalysis.Pureappl.Geophys.,159:1905～2536.
Melbourne,T .I.andWebb,F .H .,2002.Precursorytransientslipduringthe2001MW =84PeruearthquakesequencefromcontinuousGPS .Geophys.Res.Lett.,29(21):doi:10.10292002GL015533.
Mora,P .,Matsu’ura,M .,Madariaga,R .andMinster,J.B .(eds.),2000.SpecialsectionMicroscopicandmacroscopicsimulation:towardspredictivemodellingoftheearthquakeprocess.Pureappl.Geophys.,157:1817～2383.
Ohnaka,M .,1996.Nonuniformityoftheconstitutivelawparametersforshearruptureandquasistaticnucleationtodynamicrupture:aphysicalmodelofearthquakegenerationprocesses.Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA ,93:3795～3802.
Ohnaka,M .andShen,L .,1999.Scalingoftheshearruptureprocessfromnucleationtodynamicpropagation:implicationsofgeometricirregularityoftherupturingsurfaces.J.Geophys.Res.,104:817～844.
Oncel,A .O .andWyss,M .,2000.Themajorasperitiesofthe1999Mw=74Izmitearthquakedefinedbythemicroseismicityofthetwodecadesbeforeit.Geophys.J .Int.,143:501～506.
Rastogi,B .K .andMandal,P .,1999.Foreshocksandnucleationofsmall tomoderate sizedKoynaearthquakes(India).Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,89:829～836.
Richon,P .,Sabroux,J.C .,Halbwachs,M .,Vandemeulebrouck,J.,Poussielgue,N .,Tabbagh,J.andPunongbayan,R .,2003.RadonanomalyinthesoilofTaalvolcano,thePhilippines:alikelyprecursoroftheM71Mindoroearthquake(1994).Geophys.Res.Lett.,30(9):doi:10.10292003GL016902.
Romachkova,L .L .,Kossobokov,V .G .,Panza,G .F .andCosta,G .,1998.Intermediate termpredictionsofearthquakesinItaly:AlgorithmM8.Pureappl.Geophys.,152:37～55.
Rong,Y .F .andJackson,D .D .,2002.EarthquakepotentialinandaroundChina:estimatedfrompastearthquakes.Geophys.,Res.Lett.,29(16):doi:10.10292002GL015297.
Rundle,J.B .,Turcotte,D .L .andKlein,W .(eds.),2000a.GeoComplexityandthePhysicsofEarthquakes.Washington,D .C .:AGU ,1～284.
Rundle,J .B .,Klein,W .,Tiampo,K .andGross,S .,2000b.Linearpatterndynamicsinnonlinearthresholdsystems.Phys.Rev.,E61:2418～2431.
Rundle,J.B .,Turcotte,D .L .,Shcherbakov,R .,Klein,W .andSammis,C .,2003.Statisticalphysicsapproachtounderstandingthemultiscaledynamicsofearthquakefaultsystems.Rev.Geophys.,41(4):doi:10.10292003RG000135.
Seher,T .andMain,I .G .,2004.Astatisticalevaluationofa’stress forecast’earthquake.Geophys.J.Int.,157:187～193.
Sobolev,G .,2001.TheexamplesofearthquakepreparationinKamchatkaandJapan.Tectonophysics,338:269～279.
Sornette,D .,2000.CriticalPhenomenainComplexSystems.Berlin:SpringerVerlag,1～412.
Sornette,A .andSornette,D .,1990.Earthquakeruptureasacriticalpoint:consequencesfortelluricprecursors.Tectonophysics,179:327～334.
Sornette,D .andSammis,C .G .,1995.Criticalexponentsfromrenomalizationgrouptheoryofearthquakes:implicationsforearthquakeprediction.J .Phys.I.,5:607～619.
Tiampo,K .F .,Rundle,J .B .,McGinnis,S .andGross,S .J.,2002.EigenpatternsinsouthernCaliforniaseismicity.J.Geophys.Res.,107(B12):doi:10.10292001JB000562.
Uyeda,S .,AlDamegh,K .S .,Dologlou,E .andNagao,T .,1999.SomerelationshipbetweenVANseismicelectricsignals(SES)andearthquakeparameters.Tectonophysics,304:41～55.
VereJones,D .andOgata,Y .,2003.Statisticalprinciplesforseismologists.In:Lee,W .H .K .,Kanamori,H .,Jennings,P .C .andKisslinger,C .(eds.),InternationalHandbookofEarthquakeandEngineeringSeismology.Amsterdam:AcademicPress,1573～1586.
Westerhaus,M .,Wyss,M ,Yilmaz,R .andZschau,J .,2002.Correlatingvariationsofbvaluesandcrustaldeformationduringthe1990smayhavepinpointedtheruptureinitiationoftheMw=74Izmitearthquakeof1999August17.Geophys.J .Int.,148:139～152.
Wyss,M .,1997.Cannotearthquakesbepredicted?Science,278:487～488.
Wyss,M .andDmowska,R .(eds.),1997.SpecialissueEarthquakeprediction,state of the art.Pureappl.Geophys.,149:1～264.
Wyss,M .andMartirosyan,A .H .,1998.SeismicquiescencebeforetheM7,1988,Spitakearthquake,Armenia.Geophys.J .Int.,134:329～340.
Wyss,M .,Shimazaki,K .andIto,A .(eds.),1999.SpecialsectionSeismicitypattern,theirstatisticalsignificanceandphysicalmeaning.Pureappl.Geophys.,155:203～726.
Xu,H .J .andKnopoff,L .,1994.Periodicityandchaosinaone dimensionaldynamicalmodelofearthquakes.Phys.Rev.,E50:3577～3581.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心