水电开发对山区河流生态系统影响模型及应用研究
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摘要
水电开发不仅可以充分利用水资源,还直接关系到国家节能减排目标的实现和能源可持续发展战略的实施。中共中央、国务院在“十二五”规划纲要中强调,要加强生态系统保护,维护区域资源环境承载力,加大环境保护力度和资源节约与管理。因此,如何在获取水电开发最大经济效益的同时,又科学、合理地评价其对河流生态系统的影响,实施“在开发中保护,在保护中开发”,实现经济、社会、资源与环境的协调、可持续发展已成为一个重大的现实问题。
我国的山区河流具有丰富的水资源和巨大的开发利用潜力,在全国水资源和水能资源的配置格局中占有非常重要的战略性地位。山区河流的水电开发及其对生态系统的影响是复杂而特殊的。本文以怒江流域为研究实例,从山区河流生态系统健康、可持续发展能力、生态承载力、梯级开发对河流水温的影响、水电开发的水足迹等方面深入研究了水电开发对山区河流生态系统的影响,并取得了如下主要成果：
(1)水电开发对山区河流生态系统健康与可持续发展能力影响模型的研究及应用。通过分析山区河流的基本特征,从山区河流生态系统的自然生态功能和人类服务功能出发,分别构建了山区河流生态系统健康和可持续发展能力评价指标体系,建立了基于投影寻踪和改进遗传算法的山区河流生态系统健康影响模型及基于信息熵和逼近于理想解排序法的山区河流生态系统可持续发展能力影响模型,并将其应用于怒江生态系统的研究中。通过实际应用表明,所建指标体系和评价模型合理可行,具有很强的实用性。结果显示,在怒江地区进行适当的水电开发,能有效地改善山区河流生态系统对人类的服务功能,改善了整个山区河流生态系统中河流系统和两岸山地系统的极度不平衡,使整个山区河流生态系统朝着更有利、更健康的方向发展；水电开发和旅游开发后,怒江生态系统可持续发展能力均有不同幅度的增加,且前者增幅较后者大,二者协同开发可以使基础设施更加完善、居民收入更高。
(2)水电开发对山区河流生态系统生态承载力影响模型的研究及应用。基于生态系统健康的生态承载力理念,提出水电开发对区域生态承载力影响的评价指标体系,建立了基于投影寻踪和改进遗传算法的计算模型。以怒江州为例,深入分析了水电开发对生态承载力的影响,以水电效益最大化与环境负影响最小化之间的最佳平衡点为追求目标,探讨水电开发与生态环境协调发展、相互促进的条件与模式。研究结果表明,在怒江中下游“一库四级”水电梯级开发模式下,怒江的水电开发对怒江州区域的生态承载能力有一定的积极影响。
(3)水电开发对河道水温影响模型的研究及应用。基于MIKE11软件,建立了一维水温模型和立面二维水温模型,为河道水温的预测提供了一条有效的途径。并以怒江流域为例,进行了天然河道水温数值模拟和“一库四级”梯级开发下的库区及河道下泄水温变化的预测,研究了怒江水电工程对河道水温的影响规律、库群形成状态与河道水温的关系、水库调度方式等对河道水温的累积影响；最后针对冷水下泄问题提出相应对策,为怒江水电运行的水温控制提供有力的技术支撑。
(4)水电开发中水足迹研究。将水足迹分析法应用到山区河流梯级水电开发的水资源消耗评价中,通过评估怒江梯级干流电站的水足迹,研究其在发电过程中消耗的水资源数量,对于尚未建设的怒江干流梯级电站,具有重要参考价值；同时拓宽了水电开发的水资源利用评价思路和方法,具有重要的理论和现实意义。
The hydropower development can not only make full use of water resources, but also directly relate to the goals of national energy saving and emission reduction and the implementation of the sustainable development strategy. The programs of CPC Central Committee and State Council in the12th Five-Year Plan emphasize on reinforcing the protection of ecology, maintaining the carrying capacity of regional resources and environment and enhancing efforts on environmental protection and resource conservation and management. Therefore, it is a significantly practical problem that how to obtain the maximum economic benefits of cascade hydropower development and make an scientific and rational assessment of its impact on the river ecosystem at the same time to realize the coordination and sustainable development of the economy, society, resource and environment by conserving when exploiting, and exploiting on the basis of conservation.
With abundant water resources and great potential for the development and utilization, China's mountain rivers occupy a very important strategic position in the national water resources and hydropower resources allocation pattern. The mountain river hydropower development and its impact on the ecosystem are complicated and special. In this paper, Nujiang Basin is studied as an instance. And the impact of hydropower development on mountain river ecosystem are studied deeply by focusing on the basic theory of mountain river ecosystem, mountain river ecosystem health, sustainable development capacity of mountain river ecosystem, ecological carrying capacity, impact of hydropower development on the temperature of the river, water footprint of hydropower development etc. The main results are as follows:
(1) Impact models and their application of hydropower development on mountain river ecosystem health and sustainable development capacity. In this part, firstly, the evaluation index systems of mountain river ecosystem health and sustainable development capacity are constructed by analyzing the basic characteristics of the mountain river and considering the natural ecological functions and service functions for human of mountain river ecosystem. Next, the mountain river ecosystem health impact model is established based on improved genetic algorithm and projection pursuit method. And the mountain river ecosystem sustainable development capacity impact model is established based on information entropy and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution. Last, these models are applied to the Nujiang ecosystem, which proves the rationality, feasibility, and practicability of the index systems and models. In this part, two conclusions are obtained. On the one hand, the proper hydropower development in Nujiang Basin can effectively improve the service functions for human of the mountain river ecological system and improve the unbalance between the river system and the mountain system, so that the whole mountain river ecosystem will be better and healthier. On the other hand, either hydropower development or tourism development can make sustainable development capacity of the Nujiang River ecosystem increase to some extents. And the increase of the former is greater than the latter. Besides, the collaborative development of hydropower and tourism in Nujiang area can make its infrastructure more complete and resident incomes higher.
(2) Impact model and its application of the hydropower development on the ecological carrying capacity of the mountain river ecosystem. In the first place, according to the concept of ecological carrying capacity of the ecosystem health, impact evaluation index system of hydropower development on the regional ecological carrying capacity is constructed and the calculation model based on projection pursuit is established. Furthermore, taking Nujiang Basin as an example, the impact of hydropower development on the ecological carrying capacity is analyzed in depth. The best balance point between the maximized hydropower benefits and the minimized negative impact on environment is found to explore the conditions and modes of the coordinated development and mutual promotion of hydropower development and ecological environment. The research results show that Nujiang hydropower development has a positive impact on the regional ecological carrying capacity of Nujiang area with four cascade hydropower stations.
(3) Impact model and its application of hydropower development on the temperature of the river. On the basis of M1KE11software, one-dimensional water temperature model and elevation two-dimensional water temperature model are established, which provide an effective way for the prediction of river water temperature. What's more, taking Nujiang River as an example, the water temperature of natural river and the water temperature of reservoir and discharge with four cascade hydropower stations of Nujiang River are predicted to study the impact regularity of Nujiang hydropower project on river water temperature, the relationship between reservoirs form state and water temperature, and the cumulative effect of reservoir operation modes on water temperature. Besides, aiming at the cold-water-discharge issue, corresponding countermeasures are proposed, providing technical support for temperature control of Nujiang River under cascade hydropower stations operation.
(4) Research on water footprint calculation of hydropower development. In this part, water footprint method is applied to evaluate the water consumption of mountain river cascade hydropower development. By assessing the water footprints of Nujiang River cascade hydropower stations, the quantitiy of the water consumption in the power generation process can be researched, which has an important reference value to Nujiang River cascade hydropower stations to be built and has important theoretical and practical significance to broaden the ideas and methods of evaluation of the use of water resources for hydropower development.
我国的山区河流具有丰富的水资源和巨大的开发利用潜力,在全国水资源和水能资源的配置格局中占有非常重要的战略性地位。山区河流的水电开发及其对生态系统的影响是复杂而特殊的。本文以怒江流域为研究实例,从山区河流生态系统健康、可持续发展能力、生态承载力、梯级开发对河流水温的影响、水电开发的水足迹等方面深入研究了水电开发对山区河流生态系统的影响,并取得了如下主要成果：
(1)水电开发对山区河流生态系统健康与可持续发展能力影响模型的研究及应用。通过分析山区河流的基本特征,从山区河流生态系统的自然生态功能和人类服务功能出发,分别构建了山区河流生态系统健康和可持续发展能力评价指标体系,建立了基于投影寻踪和改进遗传算法的山区河流生态系统健康影响模型及基于信息熵和逼近于理想解排序法的山区河流生态系统可持续发展能力影响模型,并将其应用于怒江生态系统的研究中。通过实际应用表明,所建指标体系和评价模型合理可行,具有很强的实用性。结果显示,在怒江地区进行适当的水电开发,能有效地改善山区河流生态系统对人类的服务功能,改善了整个山区河流生态系统中河流系统和两岸山地系统的极度不平衡,使整个山区河流生态系统朝着更有利、更健康的方向发展；水电开发和旅游开发后,怒江生态系统可持续发展能力均有不同幅度的增加,且前者增幅较后者大,二者协同开发可以使基础设施更加完善、居民收入更高。
(2)水电开发对山区河流生态系统生态承载力影响模型的研究及应用。基于生态系统健康的生态承载力理念,提出水电开发对区域生态承载力影响的评价指标体系,建立了基于投影寻踪和改进遗传算法的计算模型。以怒江州为例,深入分析了水电开发对生态承载力的影响,以水电效益最大化与环境负影响最小化之间的最佳平衡点为追求目标,探讨水电开发与生态环境协调发展、相互促进的条件与模式。研究结果表明,在怒江中下游“一库四级”水电梯级开发模式下,怒江的水电开发对怒江州区域的生态承载能力有一定的积极影响。
(3)水电开发对河道水温影响模型的研究及应用。基于MIKE11软件,建立了一维水温模型和立面二维水温模型,为河道水温的预测提供了一条有效的途径。并以怒江流域为例,进行了天然河道水温数值模拟和“一库四级”梯级开发下的库区及河道下泄水温变化的预测,研究了怒江水电工程对河道水温的影响规律、库群形成状态与河道水温的关系、水库调度方式等对河道水温的累积影响；最后针对冷水下泄问题提出相应对策,为怒江水电运行的水温控制提供有力的技术支撑。
(4)水电开发中水足迹研究。将水足迹分析法应用到山区河流梯级水电开发的水资源消耗评价中,通过评估怒江梯级干流电站的水足迹,研究其在发电过程中消耗的水资源数量,对于尚未建设的怒江干流梯级电站,具有重要参考价值；同时拓宽了水电开发的水资源利用评价思路和方法,具有重要的理论和现实意义。
The hydropower development can not only make full use of water resources, but also directly relate to the goals of national energy saving and emission reduction and the implementation of the sustainable development strategy. The programs of CPC Central Committee and State Council in the12th Five-Year Plan emphasize on reinforcing the protection of ecology, maintaining the carrying capacity of regional resources and environment and enhancing efforts on environmental protection and resource conservation and management. Therefore, it is a significantly practical problem that how to obtain the maximum economic benefits of cascade hydropower development and make an scientific and rational assessment of its impact on the river ecosystem at the same time to realize the coordination and sustainable development of the economy, society, resource and environment by conserving when exploiting, and exploiting on the basis of conservation.
With abundant water resources and great potential for the development and utilization, China's mountain rivers occupy a very important strategic position in the national water resources and hydropower resources allocation pattern. The mountain river hydropower development and its impact on the ecosystem are complicated and special. In this paper, Nujiang Basin is studied as an instance. And the impact of hydropower development on mountain river ecosystem are studied deeply by focusing on the basic theory of mountain river ecosystem, mountain river ecosystem health, sustainable development capacity of mountain river ecosystem, ecological carrying capacity, impact of hydropower development on the temperature of the river, water footprint of hydropower development etc. The main results are as follows:
(1) Impact models and their application of hydropower development on mountain river ecosystem health and sustainable development capacity. In this part, firstly, the evaluation index systems of mountain river ecosystem health and sustainable development capacity are constructed by analyzing the basic characteristics of the mountain river and considering the natural ecological functions and service functions for human of mountain river ecosystem. Next, the mountain river ecosystem health impact model is established based on improved genetic algorithm and projection pursuit method. And the mountain river ecosystem sustainable development capacity impact model is established based on information entropy and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution. Last, these models are applied to the Nujiang ecosystem, which proves the rationality, feasibility, and practicability of the index systems and models. In this part, two conclusions are obtained. On the one hand, the proper hydropower development in Nujiang Basin can effectively improve the service functions for human of the mountain river ecological system and improve the unbalance between the river system and the mountain system, so that the whole mountain river ecosystem will be better and healthier. On the other hand, either hydropower development or tourism development can make sustainable development capacity of the Nujiang River ecosystem increase to some extents. And the increase of the former is greater than the latter. Besides, the collaborative development of hydropower and tourism in Nujiang area can make its infrastructure more complete and resident incomes higher.
(2) Impact model and its application of the hydropower development on the ecological carrying capacity of the mountain river ecosystem. In the first place, according to the concept of ecological carrying capacity of the ecosystem health, impact evaluation index system of hydropower development on the regional ecological carrying capacity is constructed and the calculation model based on projection pursuit is established. Furthermore, taking Nujiang Basin as an example, the impact of hydropower development on the ecological carrying capacity is analyzed in depth. The best balance point between the maximized hydropower benefits and the minimized negative impact on environment is found to explore the conditions and modes of the coordinated development and mutual promotion of hydropower development and ecological environment. The research results show that Nujiang hydropower development has a positive impact on the regional ecological carrying capacity of Nujiang area with four cascade hydropower stations.
(3) Impact model and its application of hydropower development on the temperature of the river. On the basis of M1KE11software, one-dimensional water temperature model and elevation two-dimensional water temperature model are established, which provide an effective way for the prediction of river water temperature. What's more, taking Nujiang River as an example, the water temperature of natural river and the water temperature of reservoir and discharge with four cascade hydropower stations of Nujiang River are predicted to study the impact regularity of Nujiang hydropower project on river water temperature, the relationship between reservoirs form state and water temperature, and the cumulative effect of reservoir operation modes on water temperature. Besides, aiming at the cold-water-discharge issue, corresponding countermeasures are proposed, providing technical support for temperature control of Nujiang River under cascade hydropower stations operation.
(4) Research on water footprint calculation of hydropower development. In this part, water footprint method is applied to evaluate the water consumption of mountain river cascade hydropower development. By assessing the water footprints of Nujiang River cascade hydropower stations, the quantitiy of the water consumption in the power generation process can be researched, which has an important reference value to Nujiang River cascade hydropower stations to be built and has important theoretical and practical significance to broaden the ideas and methods of evaluation of the use of water resources for hydropower development.
引文
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