新疆地震前兆异常特征研究
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摘要
利用几种综合分析方法研究了前兆群体异常与新疆区域地震活动的关系;在单项观测手段研究的基础上,归纳了新疆中短期前兆异常、尤其是短期异常的特征及阶段性演化标志;剖析了2个典型震例。研究认为,新疆中强以上地震的前兆异常存在明显的阶段性,综合分析方法可为中短期预测的提供依据;多测项前兆异常的准同步转折是阶段性发展的主要指标;短期内多种异常的集中出现可能是进入短期阶段的标志;在无明显趋势性的背景异常时,大范围、多测项的前兆突变可能是强远震的异常特征;形变异常强度AF值可为判定地点提供依据。
By using several techniques of synthetic analysis, we studied the relation between the precursory anomaly and regional level of seismic activity in Xinjiang region. Based on the research of single item measurement, we concluded the characteristics of the middle-short-term precursory anomaly, especially the short-term and the sign of phase e-volution, and then we analyzed 2 typical earthquake examples. So we consider that the short-term precursory anomaly of moderately strong earthquakes in Xinjiang region has a clear sign of phase, the techniques of synthetic analysis can offer the evidence for mid-long-term forecast, and the quasi-synchronous turning of many items is the main index of it. The concentrative appearance of many anomalies may be the phase sign of short-term a-nomaly, moreover, a widely sudden appearance of anomaly that has not background perhaps indicates the sign of the strong teleseism, and the anomaly intensity of deformation (AF value) can offer the information that where the earthquake will occur.
By using several techniques of synthetic analysis, we studied the relation between the precursory anomaly and regional level of seismic activity in Xinjiang region. Based on the research of single item measurement, we concluded the characteristics of the middle-short-term precursory anomaly, especially the short-term and the sign of phase e-volution, and then we analyzed 2 typical earthquake examples. So we consider that the short-term precursory anomaly of moderately strong earthquakes in Xinjiang region has a clear sign of phase, the techniques of synthetic analysis can offer the evidence for mid-long-term forecast, and the quasi-synchronous turning of many items is the main index of it. The concentrative appearance of many anomalies may be the phase sign of short-term a-nomaly, moreover, a widely sudden appearance of anomaly that has not background perhaps indicates the sign of the strong teleseism, and the anomaly intensity of deformation (AF value) can offer the information that where the earthquake will occur.
引文
[1]杨又陵,曲延军.新疆天山地区定点形变群体异常特征与地震活动[J].地震,2002,22(1):91-96.
[2]牛安福,李旭东,吴静,等.地壳形变异常的AF值综合检验方法与在地震预报中的应用[J].地震 学报,1998,20(4):403-408.
[3]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.96-127.
[4]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究--坚固体孕震模式的由来与证据[J].地 震学报,1995,17(3):273-282.
[2]牛安福,李旭东,吴静,等.地壳形变异常的AF值综合检验方法与在地震预报中的应用[J].地震 学报,1998,20(4):403-408.
[3]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.96-127.
[4]梅世蓉.地震前兆场物理模式与前兆时空分布机制研究--坚固体孕震模式的由来与证据[J].地 震学报,1995,17(3):273-282.
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