地震调制比及其在华北地震中短期预报中的应用

英文篇名：Seismic Modulating Ratio and Its Application to Medium-Short Term Earthquake Prediction in North China
中文刊名：地震研究
英文刊名：Journal of Seismological Research
作者：王炜 ; 宋先月 ; 谢端 ; 王琤琤
英文作者：Wang Wei 1) Song Xianyue 1) Xie Duan 2) Wang Zhengzheng 3) 1)Seismological Bureau of Shanghai ; Shanghai 200062 ; China 2)University of Science and Technology of China ; Hefei 230026 ; China 3)Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Provin
中文关键词：地震调制比 ; 引潮力 ; 空间扫描 ; 地震中短期预报
英文关键词：Seismic modulation ratio ; tide-generating force ; space scan ; medium-short term earthquake prediction
出版日期：2001-07-23
机构：上海市地震局!上海200062,上海市地震局!上海200062,中国科学技术大学!安徽合肥230026,江苏省地震局!江苏南京210014
年：2001
期：03
出版单位：地震研究

摘要

对调制比预报地震方法进行了改进 ,并使用改进的地震调制比rm1 0 对华北地区进行空间扫描。结果表明中强地震前 1年左右的中短期阶段 ,未来震中周围的rm1 0 中期异常区出现明显的收缩或消失 ,一些震例在临震前数月还再次出现rm1 0 异常区。本方法具有较好的中短期预报效果。文中还就rm1 0 进行中短期预报的有关问题进行了讨论
The earthquake prediction method using seismic modulating ratio is improved and space scan in north China is made by use of improved seismic modulating ration r m10 .The results show that the medium-term anomaly area of r m10 around future epicenter obviously reduced or disappeared in the medium short-term about one year before moderate-strong earthquake;the anomalous areas of r m10 appeared again several months before some earthquakes.Some problems about medium-short term earthquake prediction using r m10 are also discussed in the paper.

引文

[1]黎凯武 .日月引潮力触发地震的一个证据 [J] .地震学报 ,1998,2 0 (5 ) :5 45～ 5 5 1.
    [2 ]黎凯武 .196 6～ 1976年华北地震的时间特性及相关触发因素 [J] .地震 ,2 0 0 0 ,2 0 (1) :5 9～ 6 5 .
    [3]秦宝燕 .震源系小震调制比和异常面积起伏加剧的时空特征与强震中短期预报 [J] .西北地震学报 ,1994,16 (3) :1～ 13.
    [4]秦宝燕 .松潘大地震震源过程研究 [J] .西北地震学报 ,1986 ,8(1) :1～ 9.
    [5 ]王炜 ,宋先月 ,谢端 ,王 .地震调制比及其在华北地震中期预报中的应用 [J] .地震 ,2 0 0 1,2 1(2 ) :7～ 13.
    [6 ]Kanamori.H ..Thenatureofseismicitypatternsbeforelargeearthquakes,Earthquakeprediction -aninternationalreview [C] .MauriceEwingSeries(AGU4) ,1987.1～ 19.