南水北调对汉江中游襄樊市水资源安全影响分析

英文篇名：Study on Impact of "South-to-North Water Transfer Project" on Water Resource Safety of Xiangfan City in Han River Middle Reaches
中文刊名：水电能源科学
英文刊名：Hydroelectric Energy
作者：刘年丰 ; 吴华军 ; 周羽
英文作者：LIU Nian-feng~1WU Hua-jun~1ZHOU Yu~2 (1.Environmental Sci. & Eng. College ; HUST. ; Wuhan 430074 ; China ; 2.Xiangfan Meteorological Bureau ; Xiangfan 441000 ; China)
中文关键词：水资源安全 ; 南水北调 ; 风险识别 ; 风险度
英文关键词：water resource safety ; South-to-North Water Transfer ; risk identification ; risk probability
出版日期：2004-09-30
机构：华中科技大学环境科学与工程学院,华中科技大学环境科学与工程学院,襄樊市气象局湖北武汉430074 ,湖北武汉430074 ,湖北襄樊441000
年：2004
期：03
出版单位：水电能源科学

摘要

根据近期气候资料,分析襄樊干旱概率、降水量时空失衡、雨量变化趋势,计算得出襄樊水资源短缺的自然风险度为49.4%,其中严重自然风险度达28.5%。借鉴长期旱涝分析结果:中线工程供水、受水区干旱趋势、连旱及同旱概率等,分析水资源人为风险度为22.8%,说明中线工程可能影响襄樊水资源安全。
This article analyzed the drought probability of Xiangfan area, the time and spatial disequilibrium and the variation tendency of the precipitation, the drought tendency of water-supply and water-receiving area of the middle-route project, the coincident and continual drought probability,etc. The natural risk probability of the water resource quantity of Xiangfan area is 49.4%, including the serious natural risk probability 28.5%, and the artificial aggravating risk probability induced by transferring water is 23%. It demonstrated that under the increasing tendency of the natural risk of the water resource quantity of Xiangfan area the South-to-North water transfer project will impact the water resource safety of Xiangfan area.

引文

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