福建省长泰上存水库诱发地震可能性分析
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摘要
介绍了上存水库库区地质背景、构造应力场、地震活动背景等诱发地震条件。应用诱发地震条件类比与概率预测法,对上存水库进行诱发地震可能性分析。结果表明:①根据水库诱发条件类比分析认为上存水库发生诱发地震的可能性小。②从概率预测和最大诱发地震估算看,上存水库存在发生4级以下诱发地震的可能。极震区地震烈度可能会达到Ⅵ度,尚未达到当地地震基本烈度。水库建设可不用考虑水库诱发地震的影响。
This paper described the conditions of reservoir-induced earthquake in the ShangCun Reservoir,such as the geological background of the reservoir area,the tectonic stress field and seismic activity background.The possibility of reservoir induced earthquake in the ShangCun Reservoir is analysed by using the methods of the reservoir-induced earthquake conditions analogy analysts and the probabilistic prediction.① According to the conditions of reservoir induced earthquake analogy,we believe that the probability of the ShangCun Reservoir inducing earthquake is very smaller.② Based on the probability prediction method and maximum induced earthquake estimate,reservoir induce earthquakes below the level of 4 may occur.The seismic intensity in the epicentral area may reach Ⅵ degree,but has not yet reached the local basic seismic intensity.The construction of the reservoir could not considered the influence of reservoir induced earthquake.
This paper described the conditions of reservoir-induced earthquake in the ShangCun Reservoir,such as the geological background of the reservoir area,the tectonic stress field and seismic activity background.The possibility of reservoir induced earthquake in the ShangCun Reservoir is analysed by using the methods of the reservoir-induced earthquake conditions analogy analysts and the probabilistic prediction.① According to the conditions of reservoir induced earthquake analogy,we believe that the probability of the ShangCun Reservoir inducing earthquake is very smaller.② Based on the probability prediction method and maximum induced earthquake estimate,reservoir induce earthquakes below the level of 4 may occur.The seismic intensity in the epicentral area may reach Ⅵ degree,but has not yet reached the local basic seismic intensity.The construction of the reservoir could not considered the influence of reservoir induced earthquake.
引文
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[4]林松建,郑师春,林琛,等.福建水口库区地震活动及其动力成因分析[J].华南地震,2010,30(3):53-60.
[5]Hu Yuliang,Zhao Meng,et.al,Estimation of Potential Risk of Reservoir-Induced Earthquake for the ProposedHydroelectric Project on the Yangtse Gorges[J].Earthquake Research in China,1995,9(4):42-51.
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①黄向荣,刘玉森,龙清风,等.福建省地震现场调查报告汇编.福建地震,2000.
①中国地震局地质研究所北京中震创业工程科技研究院.怒江鹿马登水电站工程场地地震安全性评价和水库诱发地震评价报告,2006.
[2]林松建,丁学仁,陈为伟,等.福建地区震源机制解与现代构造应力场研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2009,29(5):27-32.
[3]彭美凤,林世敏,林松建.水口水库地震及其活动特征[J].华南地震,1997,17(2):83-89.
[4]林松建,郑师春,林琛,等.福建水口库区地震活动及其动力成因分析[J].华南地震,2010,30(3):53-60.
[5]Hu Yuliang,Zhao Meng,et.al,Estimation of Potential Risk of Reservoir-Induced Earthquake for the ProposedHydroelectric Project on the Yangtse Gorges[J].Earthquake Research in China,1995,9(4):42-51.
[6]贺为民,李智毅,刘敏,等.应用灰色聚类法预测小浪底水库诱发地震最大震级[J].华北地震科学,2000,18(1):26-30.
[7]许振栋,林松建,危福泉,福建街面水库诱发地震危险性分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2009,29(B08):25-31.
[8]曾心传,高士钧.三峡水库水压应力场、形变和孔压场的研究[C].//中国科学院三峡工程生态与环境科研项目领导小组编.三峡工程对生态与环境影响及其对策研究论文集.北京:科学出版社,1987.
[9]常宝琦编著.岩土力学.地震工程.水库地震(论文集)[C].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1995.
[10]杨清源,陈献程.水库诱发地震的烈度特征[J].水力发电学报,1998,61:21-25.
①黄向荣,刘玉森,龙清风,等.福建省地震现场调查报告汇编.福建地震,2000.
①中国地震局地质研究所北京中震创业工程科技研究院.怒江鹿马登水电站工程场地地震安全性评价和水库诱发地震评价报告,2006.
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