地震前兆的微波遥感观测探讨
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摘要
通过发生在海城、唐山和汶川的强烈地震事件的分析,指出地震预报的不确定性问题,主要在于前兆现象的复杂多样性及其探测和识别的困难。单一的小震前兆并不具有普遍的预报意义。如果根据多种前兆现象进行综合判断,则可能对短期的地震预报具有重要意义。进一步分析表明,地震前兆观测手段的选择可能更加重要。同获取地震前兆实体信息的地面常规观测手段相比,获取孕震区虚体(光子、电磁波)信息的空间遥感观测手段,特别是其中的微波遥感观测手段,具有视野大、时效快、同步性强以及全天候工作等诸多优点。在采用波束开关方法的条件下,微波遥感观测能以很高的灵敏度发现大气以下孕震区微波辐射的变化,对于做出短期的临震预报可能更有意义。最后,以物信论的观点探讨了微波遥感观测方法的可行性和合理性等问题。
Through analysis of several strong earthquakes in Haicheng,Tangshan and Wenchuan,the author points out that the uncertainty of earthquake forcast lies in the complexity of precursors which are difficult to detect and identify.Single small earthquake precursor does not provide universal forecast meaning.However,comprehensive analysis on a variety of precursors may be of great significance for the short-term earthquake forecast.Further analysis demonstrates,the selection of observation instruments can be more important.Compared with common ground observation for obtaining estimative information of earthquake precursors,the space remote sensing observation for obtaining collateral information of the seismogenic zone,and microwave remote sensing observation in particular,provides many advantages,including big visual field,quick prescription,strong synchronism and working in all weather.Under the condition of using bean switching method,the microwave remote sensing observation can discover the change of microwave radiation from the seismogenic zone with very high sensitivity.Such observation may provide more important meaning for short-term earthquake forecast.Finally,based on the matter information theory,the feasibility and rationality of microwave remote sensing observation were discussed.
Through analysis of several strong earthquakes in Haicheng,Tangshan and Wenchuan,the author points out that the uncertainty of earthquake forcast lies in the complexity of precursors which are difficult to detect and identify.Single small earthquake precursor does not provide universal forecast meaning.However,comprehensive analysis on a variety of precursors may be of great significance for the short-term earthquake forecast.Further analysis demonstrates,the selection of observation instruments can be more important.Compared with common ground observation for obtaining estimative information of earthquake precursors,the space remote sensing observation for obtaining collateral information of the seismogenic zone,and microwave remote sensing observation in particular,provides many advantages,including big visual field,quick prescription,strong synchronism and working in all weather.Under the condition of using bean switching method,the microwave remote sensing observation can discover the change of microwave radiation from the seismogenic zone with very high sensitivity.Such observation may provide more important meaning for short-term earthquake forecast.Finally,based on the matter information theory,the feasibility and rationality of microwave remote sensing observation were discussed.
引文
①罗先汉.大型多功能射电望远镜//《中国天文学九十年代大型科学项目》建议书.中国天文学九十年代大型科学项目评审会报告.北京,1993
[1]傅承义.地球十讲.北京:科学出版社,1976:133-136
[2]地震问答编写组.地震问答.北京:地质出版社,1975:70-72
[3]熊仲华.地震观测技术.北京:地震出版社,2006:171-548
[4]钱钢.唐山大地震.北京:解放军文艺出版社,1986:237-238
[5]钱复业,赵壁如,钱卫,等.汶川8.0级地震HRT波地震短临波动前兆及HRT波地震短临预测方法——关于实现强震短临预测可能性的讨论.中国科学:D辑,2009,39(1):11-23
[6]王桥,杨一鹏,黄家桂,等.环境遥感.北京:科学出版社,2006:492-497
[7]马媛,罗先汉.太阳微波爆发的形态分析.云南天文台台刊,1988(1):45-52
[8]赵仁扬,金声震,傅其骏.太阳射电微波爆发.北京:科学出版社,1997:1-35
[9]罗先汉,张坚,王蜀娟.搜索近地小行星的一种射电天文方法.北京大学学报:自然科学版,1996,32(1):61-68
[10]傅承义,陈运泰,祁贵仲.地球物理学基础.北京:科学出版社,1991:255-292
[11]康健.岩石热破裂的研究及应用.大连:大连理工大学出版社,2008:97-159
[12]诺伯特.维纳.控制论(或关于在动物和机器中控制和通讯科学).郝季仁,译.北京:科学出版社,1962
[13]罗先汉.物信论——多层次物质信息系统及其哲学探索.北京大学学报:自然科学版,2005,41(3):440-447
[14]罗先汉.信息概念的发展及其哲学意义.华中理工大学学报:社会科学版,2006,20(2):101-106
[15]徐光宪.关于化学信息的探索与思考.中国科学:B辑,2007,37(1):6-11
[16]罗先汉.天体演化.太原:山西科学技术出版社,2001:82-86
[1]傅承义.地球十讲.北京:科学出版社,1976:133-136
[2]地震问答编写组.地震问答.北京:地质出版社,1975:70-72
[3]熊仲华.地震观测技术.北京:地震出版社,2006:171-548
[4]钱钢.唐山大地震.北京:解放军文艺出版社,1986:237-238
[5]钱复业,赵壁如,钱卫,等.汶川8.0级地震HRT波地震短临波动前兆及HRT波地震短临预测方法——关于实现强震短临预测可能性的讨论.中国科学:D辑,2009,39(1):11-23
[6]王桥,杨一鹏,黄家桂,等.环境遥感.北京:科学出版社,2006:492-497
[7]马媛,罗先汉.太阳微波爆发的形态分析.云南天文台台刊,1988(1):45-52
[8]赵仁扬,金声震,傅其骏.太阳射电微波爆发.北京:科学出版社,1997:1-35
[9]罗先汉,张坚,王蜀娟.搜索近地小行星的一种射电天文方法.北京大学学报:自然科学版,1996,32(1):61-68
[10]傅承义,陈运泰,祁贵仲.地球物理学基础.北京:科学出版社,1991:255-292
[11]康健.岩石热破裂的研究及应用.大连:大连理工大学出版社,2008:97-159
[12]诺伯特.维纳.控制论(或关于在动物和机器中控制和通讯科学).郝季仁,译.北京:科学出版社,1962
[13]罗先汉.物信论——多层次物质信息系统及其哲学探索.北京大学学报:自然科学版,2005,41(3):440-447
[14]罗先汉.信息概念的发展及其哲学意义.华中理工大学学报:社会科学版,2006,20(2):101-106
[15]徐光宪.关于化学信息的探索与思考.中国科学:B辑,2007,37(1):6-11
[16]罗先汉.天体演化.太原:山西科学技术出版社,2001:82-86
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