基于DEA的地铁站拥挤踩踏风险分析
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摘要
由于运营时间短、客流量大、管理体系不健全等原因,国内地铁运营过程中存在诸多安全隐患,因拥挤造成踩踏事故的安全风险尤为突出。本文采用数据包络分析(DEA),构建地铁站风险控制有效性分析与评价的DEA模型,对地铁站拥挤踩踏风险进行定量分析。结合武汉地铁线上10个地铁车站的实际数据,从技术效率、规模效率和综合效率三个方面分析了拥挤踩踏风险控制效率;在此基础上,通过确定各决策单元松弛变量调整值,明确为达到风险控制的有效性应采取的改进策略,并利用松弛变量调整值与目标值间的差异辨识主要影响因素。采用DEA方法对地铁站拥挤踩踏事故风险分析结果与现状基本相符,可为判断地铁车站拥挤踩踏风险分析及制定改进策略提供决策依据。
Many potential safety hazards exist in metro operation due to short operating time,big traffic,and incomplete management system and so on. The security risks caused by the crowded stampede accident are particularly acute. The data envelopment analysis( DEA) is used to quantitatively analysis the crowded stampede risk. According to the data of ten subway stations in Wuhan metro system, efficiency analysis in terms of technical efficiency, scale reward and comprehensive efficiency is concluded. Based on this,by determining each decision-making unit's slack variable modifier,the improvement strategies are subsequently made,and the main factors are identified. Results indicate that the crowded stampede accident risk assessment is consistent with actual situation. Thus,DEA method can be used in determining the crowded stampede risk status in the station,as well as making improvement strategies.
Many potential safety hazards exist in metro operation due to short operating time,big traffic,and incomplete management system and so on. The security risks caused by the crowded stampede accident are particularly acute. The data envelopment analysis( DEA) is used to quantitatively analysis the crowded stampede risk. According to the data of ten subway stations in Wuhan metro system, efficiency analysis in terms of technical efficiency, scale reward and comprehensive efficiency is concluded. Based on this,by determining each decision-making unit's slack variable modifier,the improvement strategies are subsequently made,and the main factors are identified. Results indicate that the crowded stampede accident risk assessment is consistent with actual situation. Thus,DEA method can be used in determining the crowded stampede risk status in the station,as well as making improvement strategies.
引文
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[12]徐勋建,陈泽西.基于TOPSIS的电网融冰决策技术IDSS研究[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,39(12):62-67.
[13]李亮,崔晋川.DEA方法中输入输出项目的选择和数据处理[J].系统工程学报,2003,18(6):487-490.
[2]王起全.基于赋权关联度算法的地铁拥挤踩踏事故风险研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(5):94-100.
[3]吴贤国,刘惠涛,张立茂,等.地铁施工安全组织管理影响因素分析[J].土木工程与管理学报,2012,29(4):79-83.
[4]余宏亮,丁烈云,余明晖.地铁工程施工安全风险识别规则[J].土木工程与管理学报,2011,28(2):77-81.
[5]史聪灵,钟茂华,张岚,等.地铁换乘车站客流疏运模拟及风险分析(2)——单通道换乘车站[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(8):21-28.
[6]宋维华,殷位洋.地铁运营安全的风险管理[J].城市轨道交通研究,2009,(2):59-61.
[7]王凤山,吴华杰,卢厚清,等.基于DEA的地震作用下岩石边坡工程整体安全风险分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2011,7(4):789-794.
[8]魏权龄.数据包络分析(DEA)[J].科学通报,2000,45(17):1793-1808.
[9]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008.
[10]张青松,刘金兰,赵国敏.大型公共场所人群拥挤踩踏事故机理初探[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):81-86.
[11]赵国敏,倪照鹏,张青松.地铁车站人员疏散离散时间模型研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2010,30(2):152-157.
[12]徐勋建,陈泽西.基于TOPSIS的电网融冰决策技术IDSS研究[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,39(12):62-67.
[13]李亮,崔晋川.DEA方法中输入输出项目的选择和数据处理[J].系统工程学报,2003,18(6):487-490.
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