基于二次响应面的震区边坡稳定性可靠度分析
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摘要
本文在考虑边坡岩体参数非确定的基础上,基于二次响应面的边坡稳定可靠度分析方法,采用快速拉格朗日方法建立了震区岩质边坡稳定性可靠指标计算模型。结合湖南省对口支援四川理县灾后重建项目——理县至小金公路(理县段)路堑边坡,开展了震区边坡稳定性可靠度分析,计算结果表明:二次响应面计算次数远远少于传统蒙特卡洛方法,计算结果满足精度要求;通过对依托工程边坡动力数值模拟的可靠度分析表明,采用二次响应面法计算的可靠度指标Pf=6.861%,采用传统蒙特卡洛方法计算的可靠度指标Pf=5.117×10-2,计算精度较好;最大剪应变增量出现在坡体表面坡腰处,故选择该坡腰处作为边坡安全的控制点,其可靠度最小值为3.1左右,时间出现在16.5 s,可靠度满足设计要求,表明该处边坡整体稳定性较好。
Taken non-determinism for parameters of rock slope into account,a calculation model of reliability index for rock slope stability in seismic area is established by using fast Lagrangian method,based on the square response surface method for analysis on reliability of slope stability.Combined with the cutting slope in Li County to Xiaojin highway(Li County section),which is the post-disaster reconstruction projects partner assistance on Li County in Sichuan Province by Hunan Province,a reliability analysis of slope stability is carried out in seismic area.The results show that the calculation number of square response surface method is far less than the traditional Monte Carlo method,and the calculation results meet the accuracy requirements.Relying on dynamic numerical simulation of slope in support engineering,the reliability analysis shows that the quadratic response surface method to calculate the reliability index Pf is equal to 6.861% by using square response surface method,and the reliability index Pf is equal to 5.117×10-2 by using traditional Monte Carlo method.The maximum shear strain increment occurs to at the waist of slope on slope surface,thus the waist of slope is chosen as a control point of slope safety.Its minimum reliability is 3.1 or so,and the time appears in 16.5 s.The reliability meets the design requirements,and it appears that the stability of slope is better overall.
Taken non-determinism for parameters of rock slope into account,a calculation model of reliability index for rock slope stability in seismic area is established by using fast Lagrangian method,based on the square response surface method for analysis on reliability of slope stability.Combined with the cutting slope in Li County to Xiaojin highway(Li County section),which is the post-disaster reconstruction projects partner assistance on Li County in Sichuan Province by Hunan Province,a reliability analysis of slope stability is carried out in seismic area.The results show that the calculation number of square response surface method is far less than the traditional Monte Carlo method,and the calculation results meet the accuracy requirements.Relying on dynamic numerical simulation of slope in support engineering,the reliability analysis shows that the quadratic response surface method to calculate the reliability index Pf is equal to 6.861% by using square response surface method,and the reliability index Pf is equal to 5.117×10-2 by using traditional Monte Carlo method.The maximum shear strain increment occurs to at the waist of slope on slope surface,thus the waist of slope is chosen as a control point of slope safety.Its minimum reliability is 3.1 or so,and the time appears in 16.5 s.The reliability meets the design requirements,and it appears that the stability of slope is better overall.
引文
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[2]刘建华,查旭东,秦志斌.降雨入渗对岩质边坡稳定性影响分析研究[J].湖南大学学报,2008,35,(11):148-153.
[3]Seed H B,Lee K LI,driss I M,et al.Analysis of the slidesin the San Fernando dams during the earthquake of Feb.9,1971[R].Berkeley:EERC,University of California,1973.
[4]刘春玲,祁生文,童立强,等.利用FLAC 3D分析某边坡地震稳定性[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23,(16):2730-2733.
[5]陈玲玲,陈敏中,钱胜国.岩质陡高边坡地震动力稳定分析[J].长江科学院院报,2004,21,(1):33-35.
[6]Itasca Consulting Group Inc.FLAC-3D(Fast LagrangianAnalysis of Continua in 3 Dimensions),Version 2.00,Users Manual(Vol.V)[R].USA:Itasca ConsultingGroup Inc1,997.
[7]叶军,吴世伟.蒙特卡罗法在结构可靠度分析中的应用[J].河海大学学报,1988,16,(5):28-37.
[8]Alredo H-S.Ang,Wilson H.Tang.Probility concepts inengineering planning and design[M].John Wiley&Sons,1984.
[9]Hak-Fong Ma,A.H-S.Ang.Reliability analysis of redun-dant ductile structural systems[R].University of Illinoisat Urbana-Champaign,September 1983.
[10]高谦,吴顺川,万林海,等.土木工程可靠性理论及其应用[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2007.
[11]Rosenblueth,E.Point estimates for probability moments[J].Proc.,Nat.Academy of Sci.1,975,7,2(10):3812-3814.
[12]Rosenblueth,E.Two-point estimates in probabilities[J].Appl.Mathematical Modeling,1981,5,(2):329-335.
[13]C.G.Bucher,U.Bourgund.A fast and efficient responsesurface approach for structural reliability problems[J].Structural safety1,990,7:57-66.
[14]武清玺.结构可靠性分析及随机有限元法——理论、方法、工程应用及程序设计[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2005.
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