地震压埋人员压埋率预估模型
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摘要
针对震后快速反应与应急救援辅助决策的需要,在分析地震压埋人员影响因素的基础上,建立了基于倒塌率和在室率的压埋率预估模型.把在室率作为先验概率,为快速预估地震压埋率提供了条件.最后,以汶川地震灾区部分中小学为例,用建立的压埋率模型进行估计,并运用误差理论进行了精度分析.结果表明,该压埋率模型的预估精度达±0.2左右.
To meet the demand of fast response and lifesaving assistant decision-making,a model for buried personnel probabilty in an earthquake was established based on collapsing ratio and in-building probabilty by analyzing factors influencing the buried personnel probabilty.In this model,the in-building probabilty is used as the prior probability.By taking elementary and middle schools in the disaster areas in the Wenchuan earthquake as examples,the situation of buried personnel was explained with the established model,and its precision was analyzed with the error theory.The analysis result shows that the precision of the established model is about ±0.2.
To meet the demand of fast response and lifesaving assistant decision-making,a model for buried personnel probabilty in an earthquake was established based on collapsing ratio and in-building probabilty by analyzing factors influencing the buried personnel probabilty.In this model,the in-building probabilty is used as the prior probability.By taking elementary and middle schools in the disaster areas in the Wenchuan earthquake as examples,the situation of buried personnel was explained with the established model,and its precision was analyzed with the error theory.The analysis result shows that the precision of the established model is about ±0.2.
引文
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[11]程明.为了忘却的纪念———汶川地震遇难师生报道数据统计[R/OL].(2008-05-16)[2008-10-29].http://ming.mentor100.com/2008/05/16.
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[2]马玉宏,谢礼立.关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(3):84-90.MA Yuhong,XIE Lili.Astudy on factors influencing earthquake casualties[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(3):84-90.
[3]赵振东,郑向远.地震人员伤亡研究的回顾与进展[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):94-97.ZHAO Zhendong,ZHENG Xiangyuan.Review and progress of seismic casualties assessment[J].Journal of NaturalDisasters,2000,9(1):94-97.
[4]李海华.震灾最大伤亡率的初步分析[J].灾害学,1987,6(2):42-43.LI Haihua.Preliminary analysis on the highest rate of casualty in earthquake disasters[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1987,6(2):42-43.
[5]盛骤,谢式千.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1989:1-29.
[6]肖东升,黄丁发,赵勇.基于Vague集的地震建筑物的倒塌率研究[J].地震研究,2009,32(1):69-74.XIAO Dongsheng,HUANG Dingfang,ZHAO Yong.Research on seismic building collapsed ratio based on Vague set[J].Geographical Research,2009,32(1):69-74.
[7]甘本根.中国作息时间参考区的初步研究[J].抚州师专学报,1999(3):84-90.GAN Bengeng.Preliminary study on daily routine referential zone in China[J].Journal of Fuzhou Teachers College,1999(3):84-90.
[8]程家喻,杨喆.唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析[J].地震地质,1993,15(1):83-87.CHENG Jiayu,YANG Zhe.Regression analysis of mortality and the ratio of collapsing houses by Tangshan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,1993,15(1):83-87.
[9]程家喻.地震发生时间对人员伤亡影响的概率[J].灾害学,1993,8(2):14-16.CHENG Jiayu.Probability of the original time of earthquake affecting the casualty[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1993,8(2):14-16.
[10]程家喻,杨喆.评估地震人员伤亡的软件系统[J].地震地质,1996,18(4):468-469.CHENG Jiayu,YANG Zhe.A software system of evaluating earthquake casualties[J].Seismology and Geology,1996,18(4):468-469.
[11]程明.为了忘却的纪念———汶川地震遇难师生报道数据统计[R/OL].(2008-05-16)[2008-10-29].http://ming.mentor100.com/2008/05/16.
[12]武汉大学测绘学院测量平差学科组.误差理论与测量平差基础[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002:16-29.
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