华北地区大地震的长余震序列
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摘要
作为活化的古老克拉通,华北地区的地震活动非常频繁。上世纪60年代以来,华北地区曾经发生了1966年邢台M7.2,1975年海城M7.3和1976年唐山M7.8等地震。2012年5月28日,在唐山地震震源区又发生了M4.8地震,引起了国内外地学界的广泛关注和争议。争议的焦点在于此次地震是1976年唐山地震的余震,还是唐山地区乃至整个华北地区新一轮地震活动开始的预兆。本文利用华北地区过去40多年的地震活动资料,研究了邢台、海城和唐山地区的地震活动。研究结果显示,邢台、海城和唐山地区过去30多年的小震活动明显高于这些地区大震前的地震活动及华北地区的背景地震活动,应是余震。同时由GPS资料计算的邢台、海城和唐山地区的地壳水平应变率也明显高于华北地区的背景值。这些小震活动和地壳水平应变率同时表明邢台、海城和唐山强震区的余震数十年后仍在持续。震后粘性松弛可能是华北地区长时间余震持续的主要原因。
As a Mesozoic decratonization craton,seismicity is intense in North China.Since the 1960s,several major earthquakes occurred in North China,including the 1966 Xingtai M7.2 earthquake,the 1975 Haicheng M7.3 earthquake,and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquake etc.Recently,a small earthquake sequence occurred in the hypocenter region of the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquake.The sequence has caused widespread concerns and heated debate.In the science community,the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake or are harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in the area and the rest of North China,where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades.Seismic activity in the Xingtai,Haicheng and Tangshan regions is studies based on the small earthquake catalog in the past 40 years.The results show that seismic activities in the three regions are more frequent than not only regional seismicity before major earthquakes,but also the background seismicity in North China.Despite the earthquake activity,present-day crustal strain rates in the Xingtai,Haicheng and Tangshan regions obtained from GPS survey are also obviously higher than the background strain rates in North China.Both the small earthquake activity and the crustal strain rate indicate that the recent seismicity in the Xingtai,Haicheng and Tangshan regions should be aftershock sequences of last major events in the regions,respectively.The aftershock activity should last at least tens of years in North China.The crustal stress relaxation after major earthquake may be one of the major reasons for the long aftershock sequence in North China.
As a Mesozoic decratonization craton,seismicity is intense in North China.Since the 1960s,several major earthquakes occurred in North China,including the 1966 Xingtai M7.2 earthquake,the 1975 Haicheng M7.3 earthquake,and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquake etc.Recently,a small earthquake sequence occurred in the hypocenter region of the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquake.The sequence has caused widespread concerns and heated debate.In the science community,the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake or are harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in the area and the rest of North China,where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades.Seismic activity in the Xingtai,Haicheng and Tangshan regions is studies based on the small earthquake catalog in the past 40 years.The results show that seismic activities in the three regions are more frequent than not only regional seismicity before major earthquakes,but also the background seismicity in North China.Despite the earthquake activity,present-day crustal strain rates in the Xingtai,Haicheng and Tangshan regions obtained from GPS survey are also obviously higher than the background strain rates in North China.Both the small earthquake activity and the crustal strain rate indicate that the recent seismicity in the Xingtai,Haicheng and Tangshan regions should be aftershock sequences of last major events in the regions,respectively.The aftershock activity should last at least tens of years in North China.The crustal stress relaxation after major earthquake may be one of the major reasons for the long aftershock sequence in North China.
引文
①http:∥www.csi.ac.cn/manage/html/4028861611c5c2ba0111c5c558b00001/_content/12_06/01/1338513524070.html
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[34]Freed A M,Lin J.Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stresstransfer[J].Nature,2001,411(6 834):180-183.
[35]Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939byearthquake stress triggering[J].Geophysical Journal International,1997,128(3):594-604.
[36]Freed A M.Earthquake triggering by static,dynamic,and postseismic stress transfer[J].AnnualReview of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2005,33:335-367.doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122505.
[37]Robinson R,Zhou S.Stress Interactions within the Tangshan,China,Earthquake Sequence of 1976[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2005,95(6):2 501-2 505.doi:10.1785/0120050091.
[38]陈连旺,陆远忠,郭若眉,等.边界作用力变化引起的华北地区应力场分区加卸载效应[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2007,27(6):9-16.
[39]王敏,李强,王凡,等.全球定位系统测定的2011年日本宫城MW9.0地震远场同震位移[J].科学通报,2011,56(20):1593-1596.
[1]Omori,F.On the aftershocks of earthquake[J].Journal of the college of Science,Imperia Universi-ty of Tokyo,1894,7:111-200.
[2]Utsu T,Ogata Y,Matsu’ura R S.The centenary of the Omori Formula for a decay law of after-shock activity[J].Journal of Physics of the Earth,1995,43(1):1-33.
[3]Ziv A.Does aftershock duration scale with mainshock size?[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(L17317).doi:10.1029/2006GL027141.
[4]Dieterich J.A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clus-tering[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,1994,99(B2):2 601-2 618.
[5]Parsons T.Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes:Large aftershocks outside the classicalaftershock zone[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2002,17(B9,2199).doi:10.1029/2001JB000646.
[6]Stein S,Liu M.Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazardassessment[J].Nature,2009,462(5):87-89.doi:10.1038/nature08502.
[7]Yang J H,Wu F Y,Whilde S A,et al.Mesozoic decratonization of the North China Block[J].Geol-ogy,2008,36(6):467-470.doi:10.1130/G24518A.1.
[8]Xu X,Ma X.Geodynamics of the Shanxi Rift system,China[J].Tectonophysics,1992,208:325-340.
[9]Zhang Y,Mercier J L,Vergely P.Extension in the graben systems around the Ordos(China),andits contribution to the extrusion tectonics of south China with respect to Gobi-Mongolia[J].Tectono-physics,1998,285:41-75.
[10]Liu M,Yang Y.Contrasting seismicity between the North China and South China blocks:kinemat-ics and geodynamic[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32(L12310).doi:10.1029/2005GL023048.
[11]Liu M,Stein S,Wang H.2000years of migrating earthquakes in North China:how earthquakes inmid-continents differ from thoese at plate boundaires[J].Lithosphere,2011,3(2):128-132.doi:10.1130/L129.1.
[12]刘静,汪良谋.运用活断层资料评价汾渭地震带中长期强震危险性[J].地震学报,1996,18(4):427-436.
[13]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[14]王辉,曹建玲,申旭辉.华北地区的背景地震活动及区域未来强震危险性[J].地震,2011,31(2):11-23.
[15]蒋长胜,吴忠良,李宇彤.首都圈地区“重复地震”及其在区域地震台网定位精度评价中的应用[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(3):817-827.
[16]徐杰,方仲景,杨理华.1966年邢台7.2级地震的构造背景和发震构造[J].地震地质,1988,10(4):51-59.
[17]朱凤鸣,吴戈.一九七五年海城地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[18]国家地震局《一九七六年唐山地震》编辑组.一九七六年唐山地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[19]Wang Q,Zhang P,Greymueller J T,et al.Present-day crustal deformation in China constrained byGlobal Positioning System measurements[J].Science,2001,294:574-577.
[20]Gan W,Zhang P,Shen Z,et al.Present-day crustal motion within the Tibetan Plateau inferred fromGPS measurements[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2007,112(B08416).doi:10.1029/2005JB004120.
[21]Shen Z K,Zhao C,Yin A,et al.Contemporary crustal deformation in east Asia constrained byGlobal Positioning System measurements[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2000,105(B3):5 721-5 734.
[22]许才军,董立祥,施闯,等.华北地区GPS地壳应变能密度变化率场及其构造运动分析[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(4):497-506.
[23]陈小斌.中国陆地现今水平形变状况及其驱动机制[J].中国科学D辑,2007,37(8):1056-1064.
[24]武艳强,江在森,杨国华,等.利用最小二乘配置在球面上整体解算GPS应变场的方法及应用[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(7):1707-1714.doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2009.07.005.
[25]Hu Y,Wang K,He J,et al.Three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model for postseismic de-formation of the great 1960 Chile earthquake[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2004,109(B12403).doi:10.1029/2004JB003163.
[26]张国民,纽凤林,邵志刚,等.中国大陆MS>7.8大震的余震活动差异性特征及其成因研究[J].地震,2010,30(4):1-12.
[27]Wiemer S,Schorlemmer D.ALM:An Asperity-based Likelihood Model for California[J].Seismo-logical Research Letters,2007,78(1):134-140.
[28]Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S.Microseismicity data forecast rupture area[J].Nature,2005,434:1 086.
[29]Reasenberg P.Second-order moment of central california seismicity[J].Journal of Geophysical Re-search,1985,90(B7):5 479-5 495.
[30]Lu Y,Yang S,Chen L,et al.Mechanism of the spatial distribution and migration of the strongearthquakes in China inferred from numerical simulation[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2011,40:990-1 001.doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2010.07.008.
[31]Li Q,Liu M,Stein S.Spatiotemporal Complexity of Continental Intraplate Seismicity:Insights fromGeodynamic Modeling and Implications for Seismic Hazard Estimation[J].Bulletin of the Seismolog-ical Society of America,2009,99(1):52-60.doi:10.1785/0120080005.
[32]Wang H,Liu M,Cao J,et al.Slip rates and seismic moment deficits on major active faults in main-land China[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2011,116(B02405).doi:10.1029/2010JB007821.
[33]Li L,Chen Q F,Cheng X,et al.Spatial clustering and repeating of seismic events observed alongthe 1976Tangshan fault,north China[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(L23309).doi:10.1029/2007GL031594.
[34]Freed A M,Lin J.Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stresstransfer[J].Nature,2001,411(6 834):180-183.
[35]Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939byearthquake stress triggering[J].Geophysical Journal International,1997,128(3):594-604.
[36]Freed A M.Earthquake triggering by static,dynamic,and postseismic stress transfer[J].AnnualReview of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2005,33:335-367.doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122505.
[37]Robinson R,Zhou S.Stress Interactions within the Tangshan,China,Earthquake Sequence of 1976[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2005,95(6):2 501-2 505.doi:10.1785/0120050091.
[38]陈连旺,陆远忠,郭若眉,等.边界作用力变化引起的华北地区应力场分区加卸载效应[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2007,27(6):9-16.
[39]王敏,李强,王凡,等.全球定位系统测定的2011年日本宫城MW9.0地震远场同震位移[J].科学通报,2011,56(20):1593-1596.
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