平顶山市及邻区地震活动异常在河南省及邻区中强地震预测中的应用
|
摘要
通过对选定研究区和河南省及邻区地震资料的处理分析,发现河南省及邻区中强地震前研究区内出现小震活动增强的特征.分析认为:研究区的地震活动增强至其平均强度的2倍以上时,则在异常结束后的1.5a内,豫北及邻区发生4.8级以上地震的概率为0.8,其预测效能R值评分为0.38.研究区内小震活动增强可作为预测豫北及邻区中强地震的一种中短期预测方法.
In the paper,through the analysis of the earthquakes in Henan Province and in its neighbours,it has been found that more small earthquakes precede the mid and strong earthquakes.The conclusion is a high probility of earthquake over grade 4.8 is 0.8 in the north area of Henan Province and its neighbours within 1.5a after the abnormal movement when the average degree of earthquake in the studying areas is twice normal.The forcasting efficiency R is 0.38.So it is an efficient way to forecast mid and strong earthquakes in north Henan Province and its neighbours in the short-to-mid term through studying small earthquakes within those areas.
In the paper,through the analysis of the earthquakes in Henan Province and in its neighbours,it has been found that more small earthquakes precede the mid and strong earthquakes.The conclusion is a high probility of earthquake over grade 4.8 is 0.8 in the north area of Henan Province and its neighbours within 1.5a after the abnormal movement when the average degree of earthquake in the studying areas is twice normal.The forcasting efficiency R is 0.38.So it is an efficient way to forecast mid and strong earthquakes in north Henan Province and its neighbours in the short-to-mid term through studying small earthquakes within those areas.
引文
[1]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002:21
[2]许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[M]∥国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化攻关研究文集———地震学专集.北京:地震出版社,1989:586-590
[2]许绍燮.地震预报能力评分[M]∥国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化攻关研究文集———地震学专集.北京:地震出版社,1989:586-590
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心