基于新疆地震知识的地震预报专家系统的研究

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英文篇名：STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION EXPERT SYSTEM BASED ON EARTHQUAKE KNOWLEDGE OF XINJIANG 中文刊名：内陆地震 英文刊名：INLAND EARTHQUAKE 作者：高国英 ; 薛郁辉 英文作者：Gao Guoying Xue Yuhui (Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Urumqi\ 830011) 中文关键词：专家系统 ; 预报指标 ; 地震预报 ; 知识库 英文关键词：Expert system\ Evaluation of prediction ability\ Earthquake prediction\ Knowledge house 出版日期：1999-12-30 机构：新疆维吾尔自治区地震局!乌鲁木齐830011,新疆维吾尔自治区地震局!乌鲁木齐830011 年：1999 期：04 出版单位：内陆地震

摘要

依据新疆南北天山带地震预报实践中b 值和η值的异常判据,对运用于地震预报专家系统(ESCEP)测震学方法的主要异常判别指标进行了修改,并对修改前后的计算结果进行了对比分析,对预报效能进行了评价。结果表明,修改后的专家系统知识库预报效能明显提高,虚报和漏报率明显下降,预报效能通过检验,说明修改后的专家系统知识库更适合新疆地区中短期地震预报。
According to the anomaly criterion of value b and η gotten from the earthquake prediction practice in the areas of South Tianshan and North Tianshan ,the principal anomaly indexes of seismometrical method in Expert System of China Earthquake Prediction are revised.The results before and after the revision are compared,and their prediction abilities are evaluated respectively.The result shows that after the revision,the prediction ability of ESCEP has been improved obviously,false prediction rate and fail to predict rate dropping greatly,and it passes the test.This indicates that ESCEP knowledge house revised later is fitter for the short term earthquake prediction in Xinjiang.

引文

1　朱岳清,梅世蓉.地震综合预报专家系统.北京:地震出版社,1991.
    2　国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集——地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.
    3　国家地震局科技监测司.地震学分析预报方法程式指南.北京:地震出版社,1990.