伽师强震群活动期间地震窗异常特征研究
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摘要
分析研究了 1 997～ 1 998年伽师强震群活动期间阿图什余震窗和喀什地震窗月频、旬频、日频的异常特征 .结果表明 ,两地震窗的异常形态具有一定的相似性 ,起止时间也具有同步性 .月频度异常形态多经过 2～ 3个峰值后在高值发震 ;旬频度、日频度异常形态则表现为高值—低值—发震 ;日频度异常出现在震前 1～ 3d .通过对比分析伽师强震群 1 997年和 1 998年的活动特征发现 ,阿图什余震窗和喀什余震窗在1 997年几组后续 6级地震前小震日频度均在指数衰减背景上明显升高 ,而 1 998年 2组强震前指数衰减背景不明显 .
A large number of seismologic windows in a great area, especially in the Tian shan earthquake belt, showed clear anomaly during the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm from 1997 to 1998.Strong earthquakes of the swarm can be divided into five groups according to the occurrence time.The first strong earthquake of each group can be checked out by the monthly and ten days microseism frequencies of Kashi and Atushi seismic windows. The succedent strong earthquakes of each group can be checked out by the daily microseism frequency of the Kashi and Atushi seismic windows.It can be found from the anomalous features that strong earthquakes occurred usually after a high value of monthly frequency or after a low value of ten days frequency and after a low value of daily frequency.It can be also found from the temporal process of the window anomalies that the duration and interval of the anomalies of Kashi and Atushi seismic windows during Jiashi earthquake swarm are longer than those of a single event.The duration of the anomaly during the first strong shock of each group is longer than that of the succedent strong earthquake.The daily frequencies of the two windows notably increased before the succedent strong earthquakes occurred from the exponential attenuating background in 1997, but in 1998 the daily frequencies increased before the strong earthquake occurred in the normal background.The results of the analyses indicate that the earthquake window is a valuable method in earthquake prediction.
A large number of seismologic windows in a great area, especially in the Tian shan earthquake belt, showed clear anomaly during the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm from 1997 to 1998.Strong earthquakes of the swarm can be divided into five groups according to the occurrence time.The first strong earthquake of each group can be checked out by the monthly and ten days microseism frequencies of Kashi and Atushi seismic windows. The succedent strong earthquakes of each group can be checked out by the daily microseism frequency of the Kashi and Atushi seismic windows.It can be found from the anomalous features that strong earthquakes occurred usually after a high value of monthly frequency or after a low value of ten days frequency and after a low value of daily frequency.It can be also found from the temporal process of the window anomalies that the duration and interval of the anomalies of Kashi and Atushi seismic windows during Jiashi earthquake swarm are longer than those of a single event.The duration of the anomaly during the first strong shock of each group is longer than that of the succedent strong earthquake.The daily frequencies of the two windows notably increased before the succedent strong earthquakes occurred from the exponential attenuating background in 1997, but in 1998 the daily frequencies increased before the strong earthquake occurred in the normal background.The results of the analyses indicate that the earthquake window is a valuable method in earthquake prediction.
引文
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[2 ] 王泽皋 .邢台余震频度增高及以后发生的华北强震 [J].地震学报 ,1979,1(1) :15 0— 15 3.
[3] 姜秀娥 ,单锦芬 .华北强地震余震群应力场“窗口”效应 [J].西北地震学报 ,1982 ,4(4) :41— 45 .
[4 ] 敖雪明 ,王桂岭 ,周仕勇 ,高国英 ,吴小玲 .新疆地震窗口网在强震短临跟踪预报中的应用研究 [J].地震学报 ,1994,16(增刊 ) :5 6— 6 6 .
[5 ] 姜秀娥 ,张国民 ,单秀芬 ,王惠敏 .地震窗在地震预报中的应用 [A].见 :地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑 [C].北京 :学术书刊出版社 ,1989.2 98— 311.
[6 ] 国家地震局预测防御司 .测震学分析预报方法 [M ].北京 :地震出版社 ,1997.
[7] 国家地震局预测防御司 .大陆地震预报的方法和理论———中国“八五”地震预报研究进展 [M ].北京 :地震出版社 ,1998.
[8] 扬欣 ,高国英 .1997年伽师强震群序列特征和震源机制的初步研究 [J].地震学报 ,1998,2 0 (6 ) :5 73— 5 79.
[9] 马宗晋 .华北地壳的多 (应力集中 )点场与地震 [J].地震地质 ,1980 ,2 (1) :39— 47.
[10 ] 王泽皋 .关于“震情窗口”问题的实践和展望 [J].地震学报 ,1986 ,8(3) :2 5 4— 2 6 2 .
[11] 敖雪明 ,王桂岭 .地震窗方法在新疆伽师强震群短临预报中的应用 [J].内陆地震 ,1998,12 (4) :2 89— 2 95 .
[12 ] 李晏平 ,王兴辉 .云南地区震情窗口预报方案研究 [A].见 :地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑 [C].北京 :学术书刊出版社 ,1989.34 3.
[13] 王泽皋 ,郭妍 ,李淑莲 ,戴英华 ,孙佩卿 .震情窗口、震情地带、震情网络 [A].见 :地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑 [C].北京 :学术书刊出版社 ,1989.331.
[14] 王桂岭 ,敖雪明 ,等 .中国乌恰 6 .4级地震和苏联巴依沙隆 6 .7级地震前地震窗的异常及其预报 [J].内陆地震 ,1991,5 (2 ) :12 6— 131.
[15 ] 陈万正 .前兆地震活动“窗口”或敏感部位的寻觅及有效性估计 [J].地震研究 ,1984,7(6 ) :6 5 7— 6 6 5 .
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