一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法
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摘要
由临界地震的概念和外推 Bowman等人关于孕育未来地震半径的思想 ,发展出一个临界圆重叠方法来寻找未来强震的临界区域位置。模拟实验的对比检验表明这种方法是有效的。使用主震前一定时间内地震目录 ,这个方法能找出临界区域 ,而未来震中位置将位于临界区域内或其边缘。使用新西兰和中国新疆南部的中强震目录检验 ,该方法可以在震前较准确地定位出强震的临界区域位置。使用中国 1 995年至 1 999年 8月的小震目录 ,给出 1 999年 8月以后中国未来强震临界区域的分布 ,而 1 999年 8月以后至 2 0 0 0年 6月 1 6日 (截稿日期 )在中国 (除西藏地区外 )所发生的 5.0级以上的地震几乎均位于所给出的临界区域内。
Using the critical point concept, and extending Bowman's idea on critical earthquake, we develop an intersecting circle method to locate critical region. A simulation check shows that this method is effective in finding a given critical region. We selected several real cases from New Zealand and China, and used this method to find the critical regions before the occurrence of large earthquakes. The result shows that this method is valid to detect a critical region and the epicenter of mainshock might be in the critical region. We tried this method to find the critical regions of China with the data between January 1st, 1995 and August 31st, 1999. The result shows that nearly all of those earthquakes with M (5.0 occurred in China (except the Tibetan region) between August 31st, 1999 and June 16th, 2000 are situated in the critical regions.
Using the critical point concept, and extending Bowman's idea on critical earthquake, we develop an intersecting circle method to locate critical region. A simulation check shows that this method is effective in finding a given critical region. We selected several real cases from New Zealand and China, and used this method to find the critical regions before the occurrence of large earthquakes. The result shows that this method is valid to detect a critical region and the epicenter of mainshock might be in the critical region. We tried this method to find the critical regions of China with the data between January 1st, 1995 and August 31st, 1999. The result shows that nearly all of those earthquakes with M (5.0 occurred in China (except the Tibetan region) between August 31st, 1999 and June 16th, 2000 are situated in the critical regions.
引文
[1 ] Knopoff L,Levshina T,Keilis- Borok V I,et al.Increases long- range intermediate- magnitudeearthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California[J].JGeophys Res,1 996,1 0 1 :5779-5796.
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[6] Kagan Y Y.Seismic moment- frequency relation for shallow earthquake:Regional comparison[J].JGeophys Res,1 997,1 0 2 :2 835- 2 852 .
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[8] Jaumé S C,Sykes L R.Evolving towards a critical point:a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and greatearthquake[J].Prue Appl Geophys,1 999,1 55:2 79- 30 6.
[9] Main IG.Statistical physics seismogenesisand seismic hazard [J].Reviewsof Geophysics,1 996,34:433- 462 .
[1 0 ] Brehm D J,Brails L W.Intermediate- term earthquake prediction using precursory events in the NewMadrid Seismic Zone[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1 999,88:564- 580 .
[1 1 ] Harte D.Documentation for the statistical seismology library [R].Institute of Statistics andOperations Research Report,Wellington,1 998,1 - 1 2 .
[1 2 ] Robinson R.A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealandearthquakes [J].Geophys JInt,2 0 0 0 ,1 40 :568- 576
[2 ] Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modelling ofthe seismic cycle ofthe greater San Francisco Bay region[J].JGeophys Res,1 993,98:9871 - 9883.
[3] Gross S,Rundle J.A systematic test of time- to- failure analysis[J].Geophys JInt,1 998,1 33:57-64.
[4] Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,etal.An obersvationaltestof the critical earthquake concept[J].JGeophys Res,1 998,1 0 3:2 4 359- 2 4 372 .
[5] 杨文政 ,马丽 .地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用 [J].地震学报 ,1 999,2 1 (1 ) :32 - 41 .
[6] Kagan Y Y.Seismic moment- frequency relation for shallow earthquake:Regional comparison[J].JGeophys Res,1 997,1 0 2 :2 835- 2 852 .
[7] Saleur H,Sammis C G,Sornette D.Discrete scale invariance complex fractal dimensions and log-periodic fluctuations in seismicity[J].JGeophys Res,1 996,1 0 1 :1 7661 - 1 7677.
[8] Jaumé S C,Sykes L R.Evolving towards a critical point:a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and greatearthquake[J].Prue Appl Geophys,1 999,1 55:2 79- 30 6.
[9] Main IG.Statistical physics seismogenesisand seismic hazard [J].Reviewsof Geophysics,1 996,34:433- 462 .
[1 0 ] Brehm D J,Brails L W.Intermediate- term earthquake prediction using precursory events in the NewMadrid Seismic Zone[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1 999,88:564- 580 .
[1 1 ] Harte D.Documentation for the statistical seismology library [R].Institute of Statistics andOperations Research Report,Wellington,1 998,1 - 1 2 .
[1 2 ] Robinson R.A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealandearthquakes [J].Geophys JInt,2 0 0 0 ,1 40 :568- 576
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