地震活动涨落、自组织结构和大震临界状态的统计特征
|
摘要
根据非线性动力学理论、运用概率论与数理统计方法,对非平衡地震发生系统的空间分布状态进行了研究。提出用空间变异系数δV判断涨落类型:凝聚集、群集、泊松型和均匀点阵分布。从整体观点综合应用各统计量即协方差μ11、非负量I(x,y)、联合信息熵H(x,y)、离散度σ和δV,对非平衡系统的群体空间自组织结构和临界状态的统计特征做了进一步的探讨。根据首都圈公元前231年～2003年M≥434地震活动及其和华北不同范围ML≥3.0地震活动涨落的统计分析认为,μ11≈0,I(x,y)>0,高H(x,y)值,低σ和δV值是强震和大震发生的自组织空间结构和临界现象的基本特征和必要条件。同时对地震空区、条带、前兆性震群及前震等前兆现象成因提出了新的观点和统计解释,并得出结论:仅当一个远离平衡态的系统(区域)有足够的随机性而又非泊松型涨落时,系统的突变(大震)是不可逆转的。
The spatial distribution of unbalanced seismic system is studied according to non-linear theory, method of probability and statistics. It is concluded that spatial variation coefficient δ_V can be used to judge the types of seismic activity; i.e. coherence, gathering, Poisson, uniform-lattice distribution. Self-organization structure of seismic colony and statistical characteristics of critical state are further discussed, using such statistical value as co-variance μ_(11), non-negative value I (x, y), information entropy, scattering degree σ and δ_V. Seismic events with M≥43/4 in Capital Circle Area and events with M_L≥(3.0) in different areas of North China are statistically analyzed. We think that μ_(11) ≈ 0, I(x, y)>0, high H(x, y) value, low and δ_V are the basic characteristics and essential condition of self-organization and critical state of strong and large earthquakes. A new viewpoint and statistic interpretation is supposed for the causes of seismic gap, seismic stripe, precursory swarm and foreshock. Conclusion is drawn that only when a seismic system far from balance state has enough randomness and non-Poisson fluctuation, then sudden change of the system, i.e. large earthquake occurrence will be irreversible.
The spatial distribution of unbalanced seismic system is studied according to non-linear theory, method of probability and statistics. It is concluded that spatial variation coefficient δ_V can be used to judge the types of seismic activity; i.e. coherence, gathering, Poisson, uniform-lattice distribution. Self-organization structure of seismic colony and statistical characteristics of critical state are further discussed, using such statistical value as co-variance μ_(11), non-negative value I (x, y), information entropy, scattering degree σ and δ_V. Seismic events with M≥43/4 in Capital Circle Area and events with M_L≥(3.0) in different areas of North China are statistically analyzed. We think that μ_(11) ≈ 0, I(x, y)>0, high H(x, y) value, low and δ_V are the basic characteristics and essential condition of self-organization and critical state of strong and large earthquakes. A new viewpoint and statistic interpretation is supposed for the causes of seismic gap, seismic stripe, precursory swarm and foreshock. Conclusion is drawn that only when a seismic system far from balance state has enough randomness and non-Poisson fluctuation, then sudden change of the system, i.e. large earthquake occurrence will be irreversible.
引文
[1] 中国地震局监测预报司.大陆地震预报方法和理论[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.
[2] 李裕澈,卢振业.地震事典[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.580.
[3] 国家地震局成都地震大队.震源机制与前兆地震活动关系初步探讨[J].地震战线,1973,(2):100 116.
[4] 国家地震局成都地震大队.炉霍7.9级地震震源应力场初步分析[J].地震技术资料汇编,1974,(2):34 37.
[5] 蜀水.震源应力场岩石膨胀性和水的扩散作用[J].地球物理学报,1974,19(2):74 93.
[6] 刘蒲雄,陈章立.地震条带及其预报效能[A].地震监测预报方法清理成果汇编:测震学分册[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[7] 梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.53,74.
[8] 朱凤鸣,吴戈.1975年海城地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.14.
[9] 普里高津.新科学精览[M].北京:中国科技出版社,1990.44.
[10] 尼科里斯,普里高津.探索复杂性[M].成都:四川教育出版社,1986.10,80,162,166,180.
[11] 彼得,柯文尼,罗杰.时间之箭[M].长沙:湖南科技出版社,1995.147,170.
[12] 刘洪新.新科学精览[M].北京:中国科技出版社,1990.238.
[13] 李文琦.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1989.64,100.
[14] 普里戈金,斯唐热.从混沌到有序[M].上海:上海译文出版社,1987.
[15] 国家地震局1976唐山地震编辑组.1976年唐山地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[16] 国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震活动性图集[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1991.
[17] 罗灼礼,王伟君,陈凌.海城、岫岩地震序列非线性机构特征及判定前兆序列的时间结构变异诊断法[J].地震,2000,20(增刊):18 27.
[18] 罗灼礼,孟国杰.关于地震丛集特征、成因及临界状态讨论[J].地震,2002,22(3):1 14.
[2] 李裕澈,卢振业.地震事典[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.580.
[3] 国家地震局成都地震大队.震源机制与前兆地震活动关系初步探讨[J].地震战线,1973,(2):100 116.
[4] 国家地震局成都地震大队.炉霍7.9级地震震源应力场初步分析[J].地震技术资料汇编,1974,(2):34 37.
[5] 蜀水.震源应力场岩石膨胀性和水的扩散作用[J].地球物理学报,1974,19(2):74 93.
[6] 刘蒲雄,陈章立.地震条带及其预报效能[A].地震监测预报方法清理成果汇编:测震学分册[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[7] 梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.53,74.
[8] 朱凤鸣,吴戈.1975年海城地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.14.
[9] 普里高津.新科学精览[M].北京:中国科技出版社,1990.44.
[10] 尼科里斯,普里高津.探索复杂性[M].成都:四川教育出版社,1986.10,80,162,166,180.
[11] 彼得,柯文尼,罗杰.时间之箭[M].长沙:湖南科技出版社,1995.147,170.
[12] 刘洪新.新科学精览[M].北京:中国科技出版社,1990.238.
[13] 李文琦.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1989.64,100.
[14] 普里戈金,斯唐热.从混沌到有序[M].上海:上海译文出版社,1987.
[15] 国家地震局1976唐山地震编辑组.1976年唐山地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[16] 国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震活动性图集[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1991.
[17] 罗灼礼,王伟君,陈凌.海城、岫岩地震序列非线性机构特征及判定前兆序列的时间结构变异诊断法[J].地震,2000,20(增刊):18 27.
[18] 罗灼礼,孟国杰.关于地震丛集特征、成因及临界状态讨论[J].地震,2002,22(3):1 14.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心