日本海沟大震与华东地区地震的相关性

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英文篇名：Correlativity of seismicity between in the trench area of Japan and in East China area 中文刊名：华南地震 英文刊名：SOUTH CHINA JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY 作者：章纯 ; 林命周 ; 蒋淳 英文作者：ZHANG Chun 1 ; LIN Ming zuou 1 ; JIANG Chun 2 (1 Seismological Bureau of Shanghai City ; Shanghai 200062 ; China ; 2 Seismological Bureau of Tianjin City ; Tianjin 300201 ; China) 中文关键词：地震活动性 ; 地震相关方法 ; 模糊识别 ; 日本海沟 ; 华东地区 英文关键词：seismicity ; seismic correlation method ; fuzzy identification ; the trench of Japan ; East China area 出版日期：2000-09-30 机构：上海市地震局!上海200062,上海市地震局!上海200062,天津市地震局!天津300201 年：2000 期：03 出版单位：华南地震

摘要

应用模糊相关方法 ,研究了日本海沟与我国华东地区地震活动的相关性。计算结果表明 :日本海沟地区 (35～ 4 5°N ,140～ 150°E)MS6 8级以上地震和华东地区 (2 9～ 34°N ,119～ 12 4°E)MS4 8级以上地震有较好的相关对应关系 ;用相关分析方法对华东地区尤其是上海附近地区未来发震的可能性进行了分析 ,并估算了两地区延迟相关的平均概率。
In this paper, the correlativity of seismicity between in the trench area of Japan and in East China area has been studied. By using the fuzzy correlation method , it is shown that earthquakes with M S≥ 6 8 occurred in the trench areas of Japan (35～45°N, 140～150°E) have a certain correlation to earthquakes with M S≥ 4 8 occurred in East China area. A study on the possibility of earthquakes occurrence in the future in East China , especially in the neighboring region of Shanghai has been undertaken by using the correlative analysis method, and the delayed correlation average probability in the both regions has been estimated.

引文

[1]何淑韵 ,吴佳翼 .世界分区强震与中国地震的相关性研究 [J].地震学报 ,1995 ,17(2 ) :172 - 179.
    [2 ]林命周 ,许跃敏 .华东沿海地区中强震发生前部分测震学异常的中期指标 [J].地震科技情报 ,1996 ,(11) :2 5 - 2 7.