提高年尺度地震预报成功率的新思路
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摘要
通过回顾甘肃省近20多年的地震预报工作,发现年尺度地震预报成功率不足8%。分析了年尺度地震预报成功率低下的原因和提高年尺度地震预报成功率在实现具有减灾实效地震预报的目标中的重要意义。最后提出了在对甘肃及邻区地震构造环境、地球物理场和地震资料搜集、整理和分析的基础上,探讨其与强震活动的关联性,寻找地震发生的时、空、强分布规律,建立具有明确构造物理含义的地震预测模型,先进行长期地震危险性分析,再开展年尺度的地震跟踪预报的新思路。沿用这一思路,预期可以减少虚报,进而提高年尺度地震预报成功率。
It is found that the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is less than 8% through a review of earthquake predictions in Gansu Province recent 20 years.The cause of the low success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is analyzed and the importance of improving the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction for mitigating the actual effect by disaster is discussed.Finally,a new idea to improve the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is proposed,including : based on the collecting,sorting and analyzing the seismic tectonic environment,geophysical field and seismic data of Gansu province and adjacent regions,studying their relevance with strong seismicity,and searching for distribution law of earthquake time,space,intensity;making an earthquake prediction model with a clear structure physical meaning,analyzing the long-term seismic risk and then carrying out annual earthquake tracking prediction.It is expected that the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction will be increased by following this approach.
It is found that the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is less than 8% through a review of earthquake predictions in Gansu Province recent 20 years.The cause of the low success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is analyzed and the importance of improving the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction for mitigating the actual effect by disaster is discussed.Finally,a new idea to improve the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction is proposed,including : based on the collecting,sorting and analyzing the seismic tectonic environment,geophysical field and seismic data of Gansu province and adjacent regions,studying their relevance with strong seismicity,and searching for distribution law of earthquake time,space,intensity;making an earthquake prediction model with a clear structure physical meaning,analyzing the long-term seismic risk and then carrying out annual earthquake tracking prediction.It is expected that the success rate of annual scale earthquake prediction will be increased by following this approach.
引文
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[2]郭增建.立交模式预报地震的讨论[J].西北地震学报,1985,7(2):89-94.
[3]郭增建.自治系统和地震孕育的组合模式[J].西北地震学报,1993,15(4):7-11.
[4]刘百篪,周俊喜.海原断裂上的史前大地震[J].地震地质,1985:7(4):11-21.
[5]刘百篪,曹娟娟,袁道阳,等.青藏高原活动地块内部的活断层定量资料[J].地震地质,2008,30(1):161-174.
[6]袁道阳,张培震,刘百篪,等.青藏高原东北缘晚第四纪活动构造的几何图像与构造转换[J].地质学报,2004,78(2):270-278.
[7]袁道阳,刘百篪,张培震,等.兰州庄浪河断裂带的新构造变形与地震活动[J].地震学报,2002,24(2):441-444.
[8]何文贵,刘百篪,袁道阳,等.冷龙岭活动断裂的滑动速率研究[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(1):90-97.
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