1999年11月1日大同—阳高Ms5.4级地震预报纪实
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摘要
1999年 1 1月 1日在山西省大同—阳高地区发生了一次 Ms5.4级地震。这次地震前笔者采用测震学方法对华北地震活动性进行分析研究 ,结果发现华北缺震曲线 ,华北地区 ML≥ 4.0级季频度出现低值异常 ,邢台震区月频度曲线 6月份小震活动增强。北京地区缺震曲线、频度曲线都出现低值异常。 1 999年 6月份在晋冀蒙三省交界地区的大同附近小震活动丛集、频度与蠕变加速 ,并于 9月 1 2日发生了左云 ML4.7级信号震。据此 ,笔者在 1 999年9月 8日至 1 0月 2 7日期间河北省地震局分析预报中心召开的历次各种类型的会商会上共1 9次对这次地震发生的时间、空间、强度三要素提出了短期预报 (皆填写了河北省地震局分析预报中心会商登记卡片 )。
An M S5.4 earthquake occurred in Datong Yanggao area in Shanxi Province on November 1,1999.Before this earthquake,the seismic activities in North China were analyzed and studied by seismometry method.It is found that a lack of earthquake curve appeared in North China,the sismic frequency of M L ≥4.0 earthquakes in North China area showed a low value anomaly,and the small earthquake activity increased in Xingtai seismic zone in June.The lack of earthquake curve and frequency curve all showed low value anomalies.Small earthquakes clustered,the frequency and creep increased near Datong in the juncture of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia provinces in June,and the Zuoyun M L 4.7 earthquake occurred on September 12,which was regarded as a signal earthquake.Base on this,the short term predictions to the occurrence time,space and magnitude of the Datong Yanggao M s5.4 earthquake were made 19 times at various seismic situation consderation meeetings held by Center for Analysis and Prediction of Seismological Breau of Hebei Province from September 8 to October 27,1999.
An M S5.4 earthquake occurred in Datong Yanggao area in Shanxi Province on November 1,1999.Before this earthquake,the seismic activities in North China were analyzed and studied by seismometry method.It is found that a lack of earthquake curve appeared in North China,the sismic frequency of M L ≥4.0 earthquakes in North China area showed a low value anomaly,and the small earthquake activity increased in Xingtai seismic zone in June.The lack of earthquake curve and frequency curve all showed low value anomalies.Small earthquakes clustered,the frequency and creep increased near Datong in the juncture of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia provinces in June,and the Zuoyun M L 4.7 earthquake occurred on September 12,which was regarded as a signal earthquake.Base on this,the short term predictions to the occurrence time,space and magnitude of the Datong Yanggao M s5.4 earthquake were made 19 times at various seismic situation consderation meeetings held by Center for Analysis and Prediction of Seismological Breau of Hebei Province from September 8 to October 27,1999.
引文
1 王泽皋 .邢台余震频度增高及以后发生的华北强震 .地震学报 .1 979,1 ( 2 ) .
2 国家地震局科技监测同 .地震学分析预报方法程式指南 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1 990 .
2 国家地震局科技监测同 .地震学分析预报方法程式指南 .北京 :地震出版社 ,1 990 .
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