宁蒗6.2级地震前地下水动态异常与跟踪预测
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摘要
根据云南省地下水动态网显示的中期、中短期、短期和临震地下水位异常 ,对1998年 11月 19日宁蒗 6 2级地震进行了成功预测。自 1996年丽江 7 0级地震后 ,震前的异常仍然存在 ,省内一直缺 5 0～ 6 0级地震。中期异常显示 1～ 3年省内将有强震发生 ,西部地区特别是滇西北东条带的北端为重点危险区。地下水动态中短期异常分 3个阶段 ,分布面广 ,异常井孔最密集的地区是大理—丽江—中甸 ,且明显地向宁蒗地区收缩 ;短期异常无论从时间进程还是从空间展布都有向滇西北地区收缩的趋势 ;临震异常出现在滇西北地区
Based on groundwater level anomalies of mid term, mid short term, short term and impending of groundwater regime network in Yunnan, the prediction for M S 6 2 Ninglang earthquake on November 19, 1998 was made successfully. Since the M7 0 Lijiang earthquake in 1996, there still existed some anomalies of groundwater,and it was lack of earthquakes of M5 0～6 0 in Yunnan. The mid term anomaly of groundwater level shows that it would be occur a strong earthquake within 1～3 years in Yunnan, the west areas was the dangerous places, and the north part of belt in north west Yunnan was the most dangerous one. The mid short term dynamic anomalies of groundwater were divided into three stages with wide distribution,and the densest area of the wells with anomalies was Dali Lijiang Zhongdian, which obvious contracted to Ninglang region. According to the indexes of quantitative judgement, the magnitude of the coming earthquake was calculated as M=6 47. For the short term anomalies, both in time progress and space spread contracted to northwest of Yunnan. All impending anomalies were shown in northwest of Yunnan.
Based on groundwater level anomalies of mid term, mid short term, short term and impending of groundwater regime network in Yunnan, the prediction for M S 6 2 Ninglang earthquake on November 19, 1998 was made successfully. Since the M7 0 Lijiang earthquake in 1996, there still existed some anomalies of groundwater,and it was lack of earthquakes of M5 0～6 0 in Yunnan. The mid term anomaly of groundwater level shows that it would be occur a strong earthquake within 1～3 years in Yunnan, the west areas was the dangerous places, and the north part of belt in north west Yunnan was the most dangerous one. The mid short term dynamic anomalies of groundwater were divided into three stages with wide distribution,and the densest area of the wells with anomalies was Dali Lijiang Zhongdian, which obvious contracted to Ninglang region. According to the indexes of quantitative judgement, the magnitude of the coming earthquake was calculated as M=6 47. For the short term anomalies, both in time progress and space spread contracted to northwest of Yunnan. All impending anomalies were shown in northwest of Yunnan.
引文
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[2 ] 夏菲 .景洪 5 1、 5 5级地震地下水动态预报启示 [J].地震研究 ,1999,2 2 (3) :2 43 - 2 5 0 .
[3] 国家地震局预测预防司 .地震预报系列教材地下流体地震预报方法 [M].北京 :.地震出版社 ,1997.
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