1996年11月9日长江口以东6.1级地震的模糊预测和模糊跟踪
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摘要
把模糊数学方法引入地震预测已有十余年的历史，在众多的结果中选择模糊编网、灰色模糊模型、日本海沟和本地区的模糊相关及显著地震发生后的模糊跟踪，作为长、中、短（临）和震后趋势判断的各个环节，构成了地震的模糊预测方法。1996年11月9日（简称“11．9”，下同）长江口以东海中6．1级地震前后，根据模糊方法作了各阶段预测，分别列入近几年的上海市地震局地震会商报告中，震前预测和震后跟踪结果与实际基本一致。可以说这次地震是模糊方法取得较为成功的一个震例。
There have been more than ten years since the fuzzy mathematics methods was intro-duced into the earthquake prediction- Among the various results,this paper chose the fuzzynet,the grey fuzzy model,the fuzzy correlation between Japan oceanic trench and this re-gion,the fuzzy tracing after the occurrence of a significant earthquake as the different keypoints of the preseismic long-, medium- and short-term prediction and the postseismictrend analysis which constituting the seismic fuzzy prediction method. Before and after theoccurrence of east Estuary of Yangtze River Earthquake with Ms 6. 1,on Nov. 9 , 1996,thepredictions for every period were made by using the fuzzy methods and listed in the seismo-logical consultation reports raised by Seismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipa1ity in re-cent years. The preseismic prediction and the postseismic tracing result are basically con-sistent with the actual situation. Therefore,we may consider this earthquake as a typicalsuccessful example for the earthquake prediction by using fuzzy methods.
There have been more than ten years since the fuzzy mathematics methods was intro-duced into the earthquake prediction- Among the various results,this paper chose the fuzzynet,the grey fuzzy model,the fuzzy correlation between Japan oceanic trench and this re-gion,the fuzzy tracing after the occurrence of a significant earthquake as the different keypoints of the preseismic long-, medium- and short-term prediction and the postseismictrend analysis which constituting the seismic fuzzy prediction method. Before and after theoccurrence of east Estuary of Yangtze River Earthquake with Ms 6. 1,on Nov. 9 , 1996,thepredictions for every period were made by using the fuzzy methods and listed in the seismo-logical consultation reports raised by Seismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipa1ity in re-cent years. The preseismic prediction and the postseismic tracing result are basically con-sistent with the actual situation. Therefore,we may consider this earthquake as a typicalsuccessful example for the earthquake prediction by using fuzzy methods.
引文
1冯德益,林命周,蒋淳,等.模糊数学在地震活动性图像研究中的应用.地震学报,1987,9(1):15～27.
2林命周,刘昌森,何淑韵,等.南黄海地区的地震活动特征与趋势.华南地震,1996,16(4):20～27.
3虞雪君,冯德益,蒋淳,等.中国东部地区中强以上地震与日本海域地区强震的相关性研究.中国地震,1994,10(1):38～45
4林命周,许跃敏.华东沿海地区中强震发生前部分测震等异常的中期指标.地震科技情报,1996,(11):25～29.
2林命周,刘昌森,何淑韵,等.南黄海地区的地震活动特征与趋势.华南地震,1996,16(4):20～27.
3虞雪君,冯德益,蒋淳,等.中国东部地区中强以上地震与日本海域地区强震的相关性研究.中国地震,1994,10(1):38～45
4林命周,许跃敏.华东沿海地区中强震发生前部分测震等异常的中期指标.地震科技情报,1996,(11):25～29.
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