中国大陆强地震时间间隔的概率
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摘要
以东经１０８°线为界，把中国大陆分为东、西两部，东部取震级Ｍ≥６的地震、西部取Ｍ≥７的地震为强地震．利用有史以来全部地震资料，针对不同情况和不同时期，系统地研究了相继两次强地震之间的时间间隔，目的在于讨论一次强地震发生之后，下一次强地震何时发生．在所有情况下地震间隔数目都随时间间隔值的增大呈明显的趋势性减小．给出了８种情况下的间隔数目统计和相应的模拟函数，以及间隔值的经验概率和相应的函数模拟概率．由此可估计时间间隔为某个值的概率，也可估计时间间隔处于某个区间的概率．反之，对于给定的概率，可估计时间间隔的值或它所处的区间．
Chinese mainland was divided into two parts by the boundary line 108°E The earthquakes of M≥6 in the east and those of M≥7 in the west were taken as strong events and the intervals between successive strong earthquakes were studied on the base of whole data for some different cases.It was found in all the cases that the interval number tends to decrease with increasing of interval magnitude.The interval statistics audit's fitting function,and empirical probability and calcu lated probability of the interval,are found for the each of 8 cases.The probability expectation can be evaluated for any given interval,and the interval expectation can be evaluated for any given probability, from these statistics and formulae.
Chinese mainland was divided into two parts by the boundary line 108°E The earthquakes of M≥6 in the east and those of M≥7 in the west were taken as strong events and the intervals between successive strong earthquakes were studied on the base of whole data for some different cases.It was found in all the cases that the interval number tends to decrease with increasing of interval magnitude.The interval statistics audit's fitting function,and empirical probability and calcu lated probability of the interval,are found for the each of 8 cases.The probability expectation can be evaluated for any given interval,and the interval expectation can be evaluated for any given probability, from these statistics and formulae.
引文
［1］李铁祖、于利民、王吉易等，中国大陆强地震的成组活动和概率预报，中国科学（B辑），23，519－526，1993．［2］李全林、宋锐、陈锦标等，中国地震各时期目录汇编，北京：地震出版社，107－112，1991．
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