昆仑-巴颜喀拉块体强震前后地震活动性综合参量变化特征
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摘要
以2001年以来2次8级地震和2010年4月青海玉树Ms 7.2地震为例,分析了R_t值在强震前后随时间和空间异常变化特征,同时对综合参量的预测效能进行了检验。结果表明:在强震前R_t值大都出现明显的异常降低过程。在地震综合参数异常和强震关系的研究中,利用地质构造块体约束研究的区域,可以较为清晰地看到强震前后地震活动性异常特征的重现性。
Eight earthquakes with magnitude equal to 7 and more have occurred within the Kunlun-Bayan Har block since 1970. It reveals the exceptionally severe earthquake activity in the block in recent years. In order to investigate the characteristics of abnormal variation in the seismicity of the block, a synthesized seismicity parameter is introduced to generally depict the state of earthquake activity, denoted by R_1,and the characteristics of R_1 before strong earthquakes in the block is examined systematically. The characteristics of the spacial distribution of R, is obtained by taking a point on a tectonic fault as the center of the scanning region. In this study the two earthquakes with M_s 8. 0 or over and the M_s 7. 1 Yushu earthquake in Qinghai, China on April 14, 2010 are taken as the examples to analyze the characteristics of the spacial and temporal abnormal variation in R_t value showing before the occurrence of them, and the effect of prediction of R_t value is tested. The results show that R_t value decreased obviously prio to the three events. When the tectonic block is taken as the research region in the study of the relationship between R, value and strong earthquakes, the reproducibility of the characteristics of abnormal seismicity prior to the occurrence of the strong earthquakes can be seen clearly.
Eight earthquakes with magnitude equal to 7 and more have occurred within the Kunlun-Bayan Har block since 1970. It reveals the exceptionally severe earthquake activity in the block in recent years. In order to investigate the characteristics of abnormal variation in the seismicity of the block, a synthesized seismicity parameter is introduced to generally depict the state of earthquake activity, denoted by R_1,and the characteristics of R_1 before strong earthquakes in the block is examined systematically. The characteristics of the spacial distribution of R, is obtained by taking a point on a tectonic fault as the center of the scanning region. In this study the two earthquakes with M_s 8. 0 or over and the M_s 7. 1 Yushu earthquake in Qinghai, China on April 14, 2010 are taken as the examples to analyze the characteristics of the spacial and temporal abnormal variation in R_t value showing before the occurrence of them, and the effect of prediction of R_t value is tested. The results show that R_t value decreased obviously prio to the three events. When the tectonic block is taken as the research region in the study of the relationship between R, value and strong earthquakes, the reproducibility of the characteristics of abnormal seismicity prior to the occurrence of the strong earthquakes can be seen clearly.
引文
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徐锡伟,闻学泽,陈桂华,于贵华.巴颜喀拉地块东部龙日坝断裂带的发现及其大地构造意义[J].中国科学,2008,38(5) 529-542．
张天中,王林瑛,刘庆芳,丁秋琴.概率方法应用于地震短期预测的探索[J].1999,地震,1 9(2) :1 55-161．
王林瑛,陈学忠,朱传镇,陈佩燕.地震活动性总体状态参量R_t及其在地震预测中的应用[J].地震,2006(2) :54 60．
王林瑛,吴忠良,陈佩燕.地震活动性参数的相关性[J].地震学报,2005,26(增刊):169-174．
王琼,曲延军.地震活动性总体状态综合参量R_t在新疆天山地区的初步应用[J].地震研究,2008,(2) :109-113．
闻学泽,张培震,杜芳,龙峰.200g年汶川地震发生的历史与现今地震活动背景[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :445-454．
徐锡伟,闻学泽,陈桂华,于贵华.巴颜喀拉地块东部龙日坝断裂带的发现及其大地构造意义[J].中国科学,2008,38(5) 529-542．
张天中,王林瑛,刘庆芳,丁秋琴.概率方法应用于地震短期预测的探索[J].1999,地震,1 9(2) :1 55-161．
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