汶川M_S8.0地震前四川地区前兆异常及其统计分析
|
摘要
研究了2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震前四川地区观测到的各种异常.异常项与所有测项(或测站、台、场地、井点、泉点)之比称为异常测项(测点)比,以下类同.地震前四川地区流动短水准观测存在中长期趋势异常的场地比为0.28,异常测项比为0.20;流动短基线存在中期趋势异常的场地比为0.13,异常测项比为0.13;地倾斜类观测存在中期趋势异常的台站比为0.17,异常测项比为0.13;地下水位观测存在中期趋势异常的水位井点比为0.20;温泉观测存在水温短期异常的泉点比为0.15;温泉水氡、气氡观测存在短期异常的台点比为0.08,异常测项比为0.04;井泉水质组分观测存在短期异常的台点比为0.20,异常测项比为0.04;视电阻率观测存在中期异常的台站比为0.17,异常测项比为0.06.对同一观测台或场地有不同观测手段,分别计算了台或场地数:四川地区在汶川8.0级地震前各类观测台或场地共有172个,存在观测异常台或场地比为0.14,其中出现中期与短期异常场地比分别是0.08和0.03;各类观测项共有335项,异常测项比为0.09,其中出现中期与短期异常测项的占比分别是0.06和0.01.可见,震前仪器微观监测台或测项多数没有观测到突出异常现象.本文中其它没有提及的观测手段或观测项的资料,经过研究没有分析检测出异常项.
Various observation anomalies in Sichuan region before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake were studied.The abnormal items against all of observation items(or observation stations,measuring platforms,sites,well points,spring points)are the ratio of abnormal items(points),following are similar.On the mobile short leveling,the site and item ratios of existing medium to long-term trend anomalies are 0.28 and 0.20 respectively.On the mobile short baseline,the site and item ratios of existing medium-term trend anomalies are 0.13 and 0.13 respectively.On the ground tilt measurement,the station ratio of medium-term trend anomalies is 0.17,the abnormal item ratio is 0.13.On the groundwater level observation,the well point ratio of medium-term trend anomalies is 0.20.On the hot spring observation,the spring point ratio of short-term anomalies is 0.15.On the hot spring water-gas radon observation,the station and point ratio of short-term anomalies is 0.08,the abnormal item ratio is 0.04.On the well water quality component observation,the station and point ratio of short-term anomalies is 0.02,the abnormal item ratio is 0.04.On the apparent resistivity,the station and items ratios of medium-term anomalies are 0.17 and 0.06 respectively.There have various observation means in the same station or site,we calculate the station or site number.There are 172 various stations or sites in Sichuan area before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake,and abnormal stations or sites ratio is 0.14,the site ratios of appearing medium-term and short-term anomalies are 0.08 and 0.03 respectively.The total of various observation items are 335,the ratio of abnormal items is 0.09.The ratios of medium-term and short-term abnormal items are 0.06 and 0.01 respectively.It is clear that there are not obvious anomalies recorded by station or observation items before the earthquake.As for other observation means and data of observation items which are not involved in this paper,after researching,there have no abnormal items.
Various observation anomalies in Sichuan region before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake were studied.The abnormal items against all of observation items(or observation stations,measuring platforms,sites,well points,spring points)are the ratio of abnormal items(points),following are similar.On the mobile short leveling,the site and item ratios of existing medium to long-term trend anomalies are 0.28 and 0.20 respectively.On the mobile short baseline,the site and item ratios of existing medium-term trend anomalies are 0.13 and 0.13 respectively.On the ground tilt measurement,the station ratio of medium-term trend anomalies is 0.17,the abnormal item ratio is 0.13.On the groundwater level observation,the well point ratio of medium-term trend anomalies is 0.20.On the hot spring observation,the spring point ratio of short-term anomalies is 0.15.On the hot spring water-gas radon observation,the station and point ratio of short-term anomalies is 0.08,the abnormal item ratio is 0.04.On the well water quality component observation,the station and point ratio of short-term anomalies is 0.02,the abnormal item ratio is 0.04.On the apparent resistivity,the station and items ratios of medium-term anomalies are 0.17 and 0.06 respectively.There have various observation means in the same station or site,we calculate the station or site number.There are 172 various stations or sites in Sichuan area before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake,and abnormal stations or sites ratio is 0.14,the site ratios of appearing medium-term and short-term anomalies are 0.08 and 0.03 respectively.The total of various observation items are 335,the ratio of abnormal items is 0.09.The ratios of medium-term and short-term abnormal items are 0.06 and 0.01 respectively.It is clear that there are not obvious anomalies recorded by station or observation items before the earthquake.As for other observation means and data of observation items which are not involved in this paper,after researching,there have no abnormal items.
引文
[1]程万正,苏琴,孙毅.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地形变类观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[2]程万正,官致君,李军,杨虹.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地下水、水化学组分观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[3]程万正,任越霞,吴小平.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电地磁观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[4]程万正,吴小平,官致君,朱航,路茜.2008.汶川8.0级地震前上报的宏观异常现象及分析结果.打印稿.
[1]苏琴,段明.2007.耿达短水准场地异常核实报告(3).四川省测绘工程院.
[1]朱航,邓建平,阳光.2009.关于汶川8.0级地震前两项异常真伪的探讨.四川省地震局.
[1]程万正,苏琴,孙毅.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地形变类观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[2]程万正,官致君,李军,杨虹.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地下水、水化学组分观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[3]程万正,任越霞,吴小平.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电地磁观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[4]程万正,吴小平,官致君,朱航,路茜.2008.汶川8.0级地震前上报的宏观异常现象及分析结果.打印稿.
郝晓光,胡小刚.2008.宽带地震仪资料证实汶川大地震“震前重力扰动”[J].地球物理学进展,23(4):1332--1335.
郝晓光,胡小刚,许厚泽,钟敏,方剑,郝兴华,刘明,刘根友,薛怀平.2008.汶川大地震前的重力扰动[J].大地测量与地球动力学,28(3):129--131.
傅容珊,万柯松,崇加军,薛霆虓.2009.地震前兆还是其他因素:与“汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探”作者商榷[J].地球物理学报,52(2):584--589.
陆明勇,房宗绯,赵丽葵.2010.汶川8.0级地震前地下流体长趋势变化特征讨论[J].地震,30(1):61--71.
钱复业,赵璧如,钱卫,赵健,何世根,李世愚,孙振凯,张东宁,张洪魁,卢军,李绍坤,郭纯生,夏坤寿,徐建明,鞠航,黎明,和泰名,唐宇雄,张平,赵玉林.2008.汶川MS8.0地震的短临地电波动(潮汐力谐振和共振波2HRT波)前兆[J].国际地震动态,(7):1--9.
晏锐.2009.地震前兆观测资料分析[M]∥中国地震局监测预报司编.汶川8.0级地震科学研究报告.北京:地震出版社:175--184.
Jackson D D.2004.Earthquake prediction and forecasting[C]∥I UGG.Geophysical Monograph,150:335--348.
[2]程万正,官致君,李军,杨虹.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地下水、水化学组分观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[3]程万正,任越霞,吴小平.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电地磁观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[4]程万正,吴小平,官致君,朱航,路茜.2008.汶川8.0级地震前上报的宏观异常现象及分析结果.打印稿.
[1]苏琴,段明.2007.耿达短水准场地异常核实报告(3).四川省测绘工程院.
[1]朱航,邓建平,阳光.2009.关于汶川8.0级地震前两项异常真伪的探讨.四川省地震局.
[1]程万正,苏琴,孙毅.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地形变类观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[2]程万正,官致君,李军,杨虹.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地下水、水化学组分观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[3]程万正,任越霞,吴小平.2009.对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电地磁观测异常的分析.打印稿.
[4]程万正,吴小平,官致君,朱航,路茜.2008.汶川8.0级地震前上报的宏观异常现象及分析结果.打印稿.
郝晓光,胡小刚.2008.宽带地震仪资料证实汶川大地震“震前重力扰动”[J].地球物理学进展,23(4):1332--1335.
郝晓光,胡小刚,许厚泽,钟敏,方剑,郝兴华,刘明,刘根友,薛怀平.2008.汶川大地震前的重力扰动[J].大地测量与地球动力学,28(3):129--131.
傅容珊,万柯松,崇加军,薛霆虓.2009.地震前兆还是其他因素:与“汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探”作者商榷[J].地球物理学报,52(2):584--589.
陆明勇,房宗绯,赵丽葵.2010.汶川8.0级地震前地下流体长趋势变化特征讨论[J].地震,30(1):61--71.
钱复业,赵璧如,钱卫,赵健,何世根,李世愚,孙振凯,张东宁,张洪魁,卢军,李绍坤,郭纯生,夏坤寿,徐建明,鞠航,黎明,和泰名,唐宇雄,张平,赵玉林.2008.汶川MS8.0地震的短临地电波动(潮汐力谐振和共振波2HRT波)前兆[J].国际地震动态,(7):1--9.
晏锐.2009.地震前兆观测资料分析[M]∥中国地震局监测预报司编.汶川8.0级地震科学研究报告.北京:地震出版社:175--184.
Jackson D D.2004.Earthquake prediction and forecasting[C]∥I UGG.Geophysical Monograph,150:335--348.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心