云南降水与M≥6地震关系初步分析
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摘要
通过对1960年以来云南地区的年降水与M≥6地震的相关性进行分析,发现云南全省年降水平均值小于1000mm或年降水距平值低于多年平均降水量25%的台站数大于20,出现降水旱异常后,与次年云南地区发生7级地震的对应率分别为25%和33%,没有显著的相关性;从降水的空间分布特征分析,云南除思茅、普洱地震区外,有80%的M≥6强震在震前1年,震中附近出现过降水大于多年均值20%的现象,云南降水涝异常与6级以上地震存在一定的相关性,但分析认为降水通过对地壳的加载可能对地震有一定的诱发作用,但最多只是外因,只起调制作用,地震的发生主要是内因起主导作用。
Analyzing correlation between annual precipitation and the M≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan since 1960,we find that when the mean annual precipitation in Yunnan is less than 1 000 mm,or the number of the stations whose annual precipitation anomaly is lower than 25% is larger than 20,the corresponding probabitity of M≥7 earthquake in Yunnan in the following year is only 25% and 33% respectively.The correlation between the drought anomaly and the M≥7 earthquake isn't significant.Analyzing the spatial distribution of precipitation in Yunnan,we find that one year before the M≥6 earthquakes more than 80% of the total,the annual precipitation near the epicenters of the earthquakes is 20% higher than the average.The correlation between the flood anomaly and the M≥6 earthquakes happened in Yunnan is significant.We think that the precipitation loaded on the crust may trigger the earthquake,but it is only a modulator.The intrinsic factor is decisive for the earthquake.
Analyzing correlation between annual precipitation and the M≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan since 1960,we find that when the mean annual precipitation in Yunnan is less than 1 000 mm,or the number of the stations whose annual precipitation anomaly is lower than 25% is larger than 20,the corresponding probabitity of M≥7 earthquake in Yunnan in the following year is only 25% and 33% respectively.The correlation between the drought anomaly and the M≥7 earthquake isn't significant.Analyzing the spatial distribution of precipitation in Yunnan,we find that one year before the M≥6 earthquakes more than 80% of the total,the annual precipitation near the epicenters of the earthquakes is 20% higher than the average.The correlation between the flood anomaly and the M≥6 earthquakes happened in Yunnan is significant.We think that the precipitation loaded on the crust may trigger the earthquake,but it is only a modulator.The intrinsic factor is decisive for the earthquake.
引文
耿庆国.1984.旱震关系与大地震中期预报[J].中国科学(B辑),(7):658-666.
耿庆国.2005.破坏性地震短期临震预测的一个有效方法[J].国际地震动态,(5):117-124.
李海华.1983.大气降水对地震活动某种调制作用的初步讨论[J].地震学报,5(2):234-241.
马敬霞,王式功,杨德宝.2009.中国大陆中强震发生前后震中降水变化特征[J].兰州大学学报,45(5):135-137.
王在华,徐国钧.2002.气象要素与云南震区最大震级的统计相关分析[J].内陆地震,16(3):235-243.
徐国钧,谭天明,兰红林,等.1993.云南破坏性地震与气象要素的关系[J].地震研究,16(3):148-155.
徐国钧,田敏,赵革建,等.2001.气象奇点与云南最大震级预报研究[J].云南大学学报,23(5):351-356.
赵洪声,黄云宝.1984.大气降水对昆明周围地震活动的调制[J].西北地震学报,6(1):38-42.
赵洪声.1986.大气降水剧变对思茅—普洱区地震活动的影响[J].地震学刊,(1):59-62.
中央气象局科技情报研究所.1976.地震与气象关系的研究情况[J].山东气象,(6):24-28.
耿庆国.2005.破坏性地震短期临震预测的一个有效方法[J].国际地震动态,(5):117-124.
李海华.1983.大气降水对地震活动某种调制作用的初步讨论[J].地震学报,5(2):234-241.
马敬霞,王式功,杨德宝.2009.中国大陆中强震发生前后震中降水变化特征[J].兰州大学学报,45(5):135-137.
王在华,徐国钧.2002.气象要素与云南震区最大震级的统计相关分析[J].内陆地震,16(3):235-243.
徐国钧,谭天明,兰红林,等.1993.云南破坏性地震与气象要素的关系[J].地震研究,16(3):148-155.
徐国钧,田敏,赵革建,等.2001.气象奇点与云南最大震级预报研究[J].云南大学学报,23(5):351-356.
赵洪声,黄云宝.1984.大气降水对昆明周围地震活动的调制[J].西北地震学报,6(1):38-42.
赵洪声.1986.大气降水剧变对思茅—普洱区地震活动的影响[J].地震学刊,(1):59-62.
中央气象局科技情报研究所.1976.地震与气象关系的研究情况[J].山东气象,(6):24-28.
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