地震危险性分析不确定性表征
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摘要
概述地震危险性分析中不确定性的来源、类别、不同类别不确定性的特征。采用逻辑树模型处理不确定性,通过算例说明不确定性对厂址地震危险性评价结果的影响。讨论在进行核电厂地震风险评价时如何考虑地震危险性分析中的不确定性。
The origins and categories of uncertainty,the uncertainty characters of different categories in seismic hazard analysis are briefly introduced.To deal with uncertainty per logic tree model,seismic hazard for an example site is computed.The role of uncertainty in calculating seismic hazard is demonstrated.How to properly consider uncertainty in assessing seismic risk for nuclear power plant is discussed.
The origins and categories of uncertainty,the uncertainty characters of different categories in seismic hazard analysis are briefly introduced.To deal with uncertainty per logic tree model,seismic hazard for an example site is computed.The role of uncertainty in calculating seismic hazard is demonstrated.How to properly consider uncertainty in assessing seismic risk for nuclear power plant is discussed.
引文
[1]U.S.NRC.Regulatory Identification and Characterization of Seismic Hazard and Determination of Safe Shutdown Earthquake Ground Motion,Regulatory Guide 1.165.1997.
[2]BUDNITZ R J,APOSTOLAKIS G,BOORE D M,et al.Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis:Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts,NUREG/CR 6372.1997.
[3]MCGUIRE R K,VENEZIANO D,TORO G,et al.Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United States,Volume 1: methodology,EPRI - NP -4726 - Vol.1.1989.
[4]SOBEL P.Revised Livermore Seismic Hazard Estimates for Sixty-nine Nuclear Power Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains,NUREG- 1488.1994.
[5]BOMMER JULIAN J,ABRAHAMSON,NORMAN A.Why Do Modem Probabilistic Seismic-hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates.BSSA,2006,96(6):1967 - 1977.
[6]U.S.NRC.Reactor Site Criteria,10CFR100.2010.
[7]FRANKEL A D,PETERSEN M D,MUELLER C S,et al.Documents- tion for the 2002 Update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps,Openfile Report 02-420.2002.
[8]国家质量监督检验检疫总局.GB10836-2001中国地震动参数区划图.2001.
[9]AJINCI A F,GALADINI D,PANTOSTI,et al.Effect of Time Dependence on Probabilistic Seismic-hazard Maps and Deaggregation for the Central Apennines.BSSA,2009,99(2):585-610.
[10]STIRLING M W,VERRY G H,MCBERRYMAN K R.A New Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand.BSSA,2002,92(5):1878 - 1903.
[11]CORNELL C A.Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis.BSSA,1968, 58(5):1583 -1606.
[12]U.S.NRC.Seismic Safety Margins Research Program PhaseⅠFinal Report-Overview,NUREG/CR-2015.1981.
[13]U.S.NRC.Perspectives Gained from the Individual Plant Examination of External Events,NUREG-1742.2002.
[14]ZIEGLER A,DIAMANTIDIS D.Maximum Loss Prediction for Earthquake Insurance.Reliability Engineering,1987,18(1):61 -69.
[15]YUCEMEN M S,YILMAZ C,ERDIK M.Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Insurance Rates for Important Structures:Application to Gumusova - Gerede Motorway.Structural Safety,2008,30(5 ): 420-435.
[16]MCGUIRE R K.Effects of Uncertainty in Seismicity on Estimates of Seismic Hazard for the East Coast of United States.BSSA,1977,67 (3):827 -848.
[17]WU JIAN,GAO MENGTAN,CHEN KUN,et al.Discussion on the Influence of Truncation of Ground Motion Residual Distribution on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment.Earthq Eng & Eng Vib, 2011,10:379-392.
[18]SPUNDICH P,JOYNER W B,LINDH A G,et al.A Revised Ground Motion Prediction Relation for Use in Extensional Tectonic Regimes. BSSA,1999,89(5):1156-1170.
[19]ABRAHAMS0N N A,SILVA W J.Empirical Response Spectral Attenuation Relations for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes.SRL,1997,68 (1):64-127.
[20]YU YANXIANG.Attenuation Relation of Ground Motion Parameters - Review and Determination of SL-2 Design Basis Ground Motion for Yangjiang Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong Province.Research Report,Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration, No.05FC3004.2005:79-96.
[21]U.S.NRC.Design Response Spectra for Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plant,Regulatory guide 1.60.Revision 1.1973:1 -4.
[22]NEWMARK N M.HALL W J.Development of Criteria for Seismic Review of Selected Nuclear Power Plants.1977.
[2]BUDNITZ R J,APOSTOLAKIS G,BOORE D M,et al.Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis:Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts,NUREG/CR 6372.1997.
[3]MCGUIRE R K,VENEZIANO D,TORO G,et al.Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United States,Volume 1: methodology,EPRI - NP -4726 - Vol.1.1989.
[4]SOBEL P.Revised Livermore Seismic Hazard Estimates for Sixty-nine Nuclear Power Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains,NUREG- 1488.1994.
[5]BOMMER JULIAN J,ABRAHAMSON,NORMAN A.Why Do Modem Probabilistic Seismic-hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates.BSSA,2006,96(6):1967 - 1977.
[6]U.S.NRC.Reactor Site Criteria,10CFR100.2010.
[7]FRANKEL A D,PETERSEN M D,MUELLER C S,et al.Documents- tion for the 2002 Update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps,Openfile Report 02-420.2002.
[8]国家质量监督检验检疫总局.GB10836-2001中国地震动参数区划图.2001.
[9]AJINCI A F,GALADINI D,PANTOSTI,et al.Effect of Time Dependence on Probabilistic Seismic-hazard Maps and Deaggregation for the Central Apennines.BSSA,2009,99(2):585-610.
[10]STIRLING M W,VERRY G H,MCBERRYMAN K R.A New Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand.BSSA,2002,92(5):1878 - 1903.
[11]CORNELL C A.Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis.BSSA,1968, 58(5):1583 -1606.
[12]U.S.NRC.Seismic Safety Margins Research Program PhaseⅠFinal Report-Overview,NUREG/CR-2015.1981.
[13]U.S.NRC.Perspectives Gained from the Individual Plant Examination of External Events,NUREG-1742.2002.
[14]ZIEGLER A,DIAMANTIDIS D.Maximum Loss Prediction for Earthquake Insurance.Reliability Engineering,1987,18(1):61 -69.
[15]YUCEMEN M S,YILMAZ C,ERDIK M.Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Insurance Rates for Important Structures:Application to Gumusova - Gerede Motorway.Structural Safety,2008,30(5 ): 420-435.
[16]MCGUIRE R K.Effects of Uncertainty in Seismicity on Estimates of Seismic Hazard for the East Coast of United States.BSSA,1977,67 (3):827 -848.
[17]WU JIAN,GAO MENGTAN,CHEN KUN,et al.Discussion on the Influence of Truncation of Ground Motion Residual Distribution on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment.Earthq Eng & Eng Vib, 2011,10:379-392.
[18]SPUNDICH P,JOYNER W B,LINDH A G,et al.A Revised Ground Motion Prediction Relation for Use in Extensional Tectonic Regimes. BSSA,1999,89(5):1156-1170.
[19]ABRAHAMS0N N A,SILVA W J.Empirical Response Spectral Attenuation Relations for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes.SRL,1997,68 (1):64-127.
[20]YU YANXIANG.Attenuation Relation of Ground Motion Parameters - Review and Determination of SL-2 Design Basis Ground Motion for Yangjiang Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong Province.Research Report,Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration, No.05FC3004.2005:79-96.
[21]U.S.NRC.Design Response Spectra for Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plant,Regulatory guide 1.60.Revision 1.1973:1 -4.
[22]NEWMARK N M.HALL W J.Development of Criteria for Seismic Review of Selected Nuclear Power Plants.1977.
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