东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁段大震危险性分析和探讨
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摘要
在巴彦喀拉块体边界地震活动和构造分析的基础上,从地震活动空间图像、时间序列演化两方面对巴彦喀拉块体北边界东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁空区的大震危险性进行探讨。与以前震例进行对比发现当前甘青川交界区域已形成与共和大震前相似的平静区,活动性参数计算表明东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁段有逼近的大震危险性。
In this paper,based on the seismicity and seismic structural analysis of the margin of the Bayan Har block,we discuss the risk of large earthquakes in the Maqu-Maqin seismic gap with regard to spatial seismicity patterns and temporal evolution of event sequences.According to paleo-earthquake and historical earthquake seismicities,there was an initial seismic gap at MaquMaqin along the east Kunlun fault,and therefore,large earthquakes will recur in this area.A second seismic gap,the seismic quiescence of no ML≥5.0earthquakes,has been detected in the same area since 2008.A comparison with previous earthquake cases showed that a similar period of seismic quiescence formed in the region of Gansu-Qinghai-Sichuan provinces before the 1990 Gonghe M7.0earthquake.The distribution of ML≥4.0earthquakes in the current seismic quiescence is also similar to that of the Gonghe M7.0case;hence,we think there is a risk of a large earthquake in the current gap.From the temporal sequences evolution analysis(M-T relations),we found that seismicity in the Gonghe gap had undergone strong-weak-strong stages prior to the Gonghe M7.0earthquake.However,the seismicity in the current seismic gap in the region of Gansu-Qinghai-Sichuan provinces has also undergone the first two stages,and therefore,we conclude that it will soon reach the strong seismicity stage.We scanned the b-value distribution in this region,which showed that the b-values are very low around the east Kunlun fault and that there is locking in this area.We also calculated the spatial correlation lengths(SCL)and multiple fractal dimensions from the earthquake catalog of the Bayan Har block using GeoTaos.All the statistical seismicity parameters indicate that the risk of a large earthquake on the Maqu-Maqin segment of the east Kunlun fault is increasing,and therefore,researchers should monitor and study this area.
In this paper,based on the seismicity and seismic structural analysis of the margin of the Bayan Har block,we discuss the risk of large earthquakes in the Maqu-Maqin seismic gap with regard to spatial seismicity patterns and temporal evolution of event sequences.According to paleo-earthquake and historical earthquake seismicities,there was an initial seismic gap at MaquMaqin along the east Kunlun fault,and therefore,large earthquakes will recur in this area.A second seismic gap,the seismic quiescence of no ML≥5.0earthquakes,has been detected in the same area since 2008.A comparison with previous earthquake cases showed that a similar period of seismic quiescence formed in the region of Gansu-Qinghai-Sichuan provinces before the 1990 Gonghe M7.0earthquake.The distribution of ML≥4.0earthquakes in the current seismic quiescence is also similar to that of the Gonghe M7.0case;hence,we think there is a risk of a large earthquake in the current gap.From the temporal sequences evolution analysis(M-T relations),we found that seismicity in the Gonghe gap had undergone strong-weak-strong stages prior to the Gonghe M7.0earthquake.However,the seismicity in the current seismic gap in the region of Gansu-Qinghai-Sichuan provinces has also undergone the first two stages,and therefore,we conclude that it will soon reach the strong seismicity stage.We scanned the b-value distribution in this region,which showed that the b-values are very low around the east Kunlun fault and that there is locking in this area.We also calculated the spatial correlation lengths(SCL)and multiple fractal dimensions from the earthquake catalog of the Bayan Har block using GeoTaos.All the statistical seismicity parameters indicate that the risk of a large earthquake on the Maqu-Maqin segment of the east Kunlun fault is increasing,and therefore,researchers should monitor and study this area.
引文
[1]闻学泽,杜方,张培震,等.巴彦喀拉块体北和东边界大地震序列的关联性与2008年汶川地震[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(3):706-716.WEN Xue-ze,DU Fang,ZHANG Pei-zhen,et al.Correlation of Major Earthquake Sequences on the Northern and Eastern Boundaries of the Bayan Har Block,and its Relation to the2008 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Chinese J Geophys,2011,54(3):706-716.(in Chinese)
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[7]李春峰,贺群禄,赵国光.东昆仑活动断裂带东段古地震活动特征[J].地震学报,2005,27(1):60-67.LI Chun-feng,HE Qun-lu,ZHAO Guo-guang.Paleo-earthquake Studies on the Eastern Section of the Kunlun Fault[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2005,27(1):60-67.(in Chinese)
[8]李陈侠,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.东昆仑断裂东段玛沁—玛曲段几何结构特征[J].地震地质,2009,31(3):441-458.LI Chen-xia,XU Xi-wei,WEN Xue-ze,et al.Structure Characristics of Eastern Segment of East Kunlun fault in MaquMaqin[J].Seismology and Geology,2009,31(3):441-458.(in Chinese)
[9]李陈侠.东昆仑断裂带东段(玛沁一玛曲)晚第四纪长期滑动习性研究[D].兰州:中国地震局地质研究所,2009.LI Chen-xia.Research on Long-term Slip Characristics of Eastern Segment of East Kunlun fault(Maqu—Maqin)Since Late Quaternary[D].Lanzhou:Institute of Geology,CEA,2009.(in Chinese)
[10]WEN Xue-ze,YI Gui-xi,XU Xi-wei.Background and Precursory Seismicities Along and Surrounding the Kunlun Fault Before the MS8.1,2001,Kokoxili Earthquake,China[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2007,30(1):63-72.
[11]Toda S,J Lin,M Meghraoui,R S Stein.12May 2008 M=7.9Wenchuan,China,Earthquake Calculated to Increase Failure Stress and Seismicity Rate on Three Major Fault System[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L17305.
[12]梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示[J].地震,2009,29(1):1-14.MEI Shi-rong,XUE Yan,SONG Zhi-ping.Anomalous Seismic Characteristics Before Wenchuan M8.0and Kunlun M8.1Earthquakes and Their Implications[J].Earthquake,2009,29(1):1-14.(in Chinese)
[13]董治平.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动图像演变特征[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(1):59-63.DONG Zhi-ping.Characteristics of Seismicity Pattern Evolution before MS8.1Earthquake at the West to Kunlun Mountain Pass[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2003,25(1):59-63.(in Chinese)
[14]陈玉华,张肇诚.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动性异常特征[J].西北地震学报,2009,31(4):374-379.CHEN Yu-hua,ZHANG Zhao-cheng.Characteristics of Seismicity Anomalies before MS8.1Earthquake at the West to Kunlun Mountain Pass[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2009,31(4):374-379.(in Chinese)
[15]Stefan Wiemer,Max Wyss.Seismic Quiescence before the Landers(M=7.5)and Big Bear(M=6.5)1992 Earthquakes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1994,84(3):900-916.
[16]Wu Yih-min,Chiao Ling-yun.Seismic Quiescence before the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,MW7.6Earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2006,96(1):321-327.
[17]朱红彬.青藏块体8级左右地震前中强地震活动图像的相似性演化[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(7):1611-1621.ZHU Hong-bing.The Similar Evolution of Seismicity Patterns of Strong-moderate Earthquakes before About MS8Earthquakes of Qinhai—Tibet Block[J].Chinese J Geophys,2010,53(7):1611-1621.(in Chinese)
[18]王林瑛,陈佩燕,林碧苍,等.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动异常及预测意义的讨论[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(1):22-27.WANG Lin-ying,CHEN Pei-yan,LIN Bi-cang,et al.The Anomalies of Seismicity before West to Kunlun Mountain Pass MS8.1Earthquake and its Prediction Significance[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2003,25(1):22-27.(in Chinese)
[19]Xinglin Lei,Takashi Satoh.Indicators of Critical Point Behavior to Rock Failure Inferred from Pre-failure Damage[J].Tectonophysics,2007,431:97-111.
[2]高翔,邓起东.巴颜喀喇断块边界断裂强震活动分析[J].地质学报,2013,87(1):9-19.GAO Xiang,DENG Qi-dong.Acticity Analysis of Large Earthquakes in Boundary Faults Around the Bayank-ala Faulting Block[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2013,87(1):9-19.(in Chinese)
[3]Ruegg J C,Rudloff A,Vigny C,et al.Interseismic Strain Accumulation Measured by GPS in the Seismic Gap Between Constitución and Concepción in Chile[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2009,175:78-85.
[4]Raul M,Marianne M,Christophe V,et al.Central Chile Finally Breaks[J].Science,2010,328:181-182.
[5]Kawamura M,Wu Yi-Hsuan,Kudo T,et al.Precursory Migration of Anomalous Seismic Activity Revealed by the Pattern Informatics Method:A Case Study of the 2011Tohoku Earthquake,Japan[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2013,103(2B):1171-1180.
[6]M7专项工作组.中国大陆大地震中—长期危险性研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2012:20-24,209,217.Working Group of M7.Study on the Mid-to Long-term Potential of Large Earthquakes on the Chinese Continent[J].Beijing:Seismological Press,2012:20-24,209,217.(in Chinese)
[7]李春峰,贺群禄,赵国光.东昆仑活动断裂带东段古地震活动特征[J].地震学报,2005,27(1):60-67.LI Chun-feng,HE Qun-lu,ZHAO Guo-guang.Paleo-earthquake Studies on the Eastern Section of the Kunlun Fault[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2005,27(1):60-67.(in Chinese)
[8]李陈侠,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.东昆仑断裂东段玛沁—玛曲段几何结构特征[J].地震地质,2009,31(3):441-458.LI Chen-xia,XU Xi-wei,WEN Xue-ze,et al.Structure Characristics of Eastern Segment of East Kunlun fault in MaquMaqin[J].Seismology and Geology,2009,31(3):441-458.(in Chinese)
[9]李陈侠.东昆仑断裂带东段(玛沁一玛曲)晚第四纪长期滑动习性研究[D].兰州:中国地震局地质研究所,2009.LI Chen-xia.Research on Long-term Slip Characristics of Eastern Segment of East Kunlun fault(Maqu—Maqin)Since Late Quaternary[D].Lanzhou:Institute of Geology,CEA,2009.(in Chinese)
[10]WEN Xue-ze,YI Gui-xi,XU Xi-wei.Background and Precursory Seismicities Along and Surrounding the Kunlun Fault Before the MS8.1,2001,Kokoxili Earthquake,China[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2007,30(1):63-72.
[11]Toda S,J Lin,M Meghraoui,R S Stein.12May 2008 M=7.9Wenchuan,China,Earthquake Calculated to Increase Failure Stress and Seismicity Rate on Three Major Fault System[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L17305.
[12]梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示[J].地震,2009,29(1):1-14.MEI Shi-rong,XUE Yan,SONG Zhi-ping.Anomalous Seismic Characteristics Before Wenchuan M8.0and Kunlun M8.1Earthquakes and Their Implications[J].Earthquake,2009,29(1):1-14.(in Chinese)
[13]董治平.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动图像演变特征[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(1):59-63.DONG Zhi-ping.Characteristics of Seismicity Pattern Evolution before MS8.1Earthquake at the West to Kunlun Mountain Pass[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2003,25(1):59-63.(in Chinese)
[14]陈玉华,张肇诚.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动性异常特征[J].西北地震学报,2009,31(4):374-379.CHEN Yu-hua,ZHANG Zhao-cheng.Characteristics of Seismicity Anomalies before MS8.1Earthquake at the West to Kunlun Mountain Pass[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2009,31(4):374-379.(in Chinese)
[15]Stefan Wiemer,Max Wyss.Seismic Quiescence before the Landers(M=7.5)and Big Bear(M=6.5)1992 Earthquakes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1994,84(3):900-916.
[16]Wu Yih-min,Chiao Ling-yun.Seismic Quiescence before the1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,MW7.6Earthquake[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2006,96(1):321-327.
[17]朱红彬.青藏块体8级左右地震前中强地震活动图像的相似性演化[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(7):1611-1621.ZHU Hong-bing.The Similar Evolution of Seismicity Patterns of Strong-moderate Earthquakes before About MS8Earthquakes of Qinhai—Tibet Block[J].Chinese J Geophys,2010,53(7):1611-1621.(in Chinese)
[18]王林瑛,陈佩燕,林碧苍,等.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动异常及预测意义的讨论[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(1):22-27.WANG Lin-ying,CHEN Pei-yan,LIN Bi-cang,et al.The Anomalies of Seismicity before West to Kunlun Mountain Pass MS8.1Earthquake and its Prediction Significance[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2003,25(1):22-27.(in Chinese)
[19]Xinglin Lei,Takashi Satoh.Indicators of Critical Point Behavior to Rock Failure Inferred from Pre-failure Damage[J].Tectonophysics,2007,431:97-111.
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