“震前扰动”现象:从模糊走向清晰——与傅容珊教授商榷
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摘要
本文介绍了作者近期研究发现的汶川大地震"震前扰动"信号的"时间偏移"现象和昆仑山大地震"震前扰动"信号的"频率偏移"现象,并对"震前扰动"与"台风影响"的关系进行了讨论.不同意《地震前兆还是其它因素?——与"汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探"作者商榷》将汶川大地震"震前扰动"的原因简单地归咎于台风并完全排除其与地震前兆有关的结论.
We introduce our recent observation results,the time shift of anomalies before the great Wenchuan earthquake and the frequency shift of anomalies before the great Kunlunshan earthquake.We discuss the relation between pre-earthquake tremor and typhoon influence.We do not agree with Professor Fu and his coauthors that they use too simple methods to prove anomalies before the great Wenchuan earthquake are caused by the typhoon Rammasun,and thus totally excluding the possibility connections between the anomalies and the seismic auspice.
We introduce our recent observation results,the time shift of anomalies before the great Wenchuan earthquake and the frequency shift of anomalies before the great Kunlunshan earthquake.We discuss the relation between pre-earthquake tremor and typhoon influence.We do not agree with Professor Fu and his coauthors that they use too simple methods to prove anomalies before the great Wenchuan earthquake are caused by the typhoon Rammasun,and thus totally excluding the possibility connections between the anomalies and the seismic auspice.
引文
[1]郝晓光.LCR-ET重力仪在南极中山站记录到不明地学事件,极地研究,1997,9(3):214-215. Hao X G.An unidentified geophysical event recorded with LCR-ET gravitymeter at Zhongshan Station Antarctica. Chinese J.of Polar Science,1997,8(2):146-147.
[2]郝晓光,许厚泽,郝兴华,等.重力高频扰动与地震,地壳形变与地震,2001,21(3):9-13. Hao X G,Xu H Z,Hao X H,et al.High-FrequencyGrravity Disturbance before Earthquakes.Crustal Deformation and Earthquake(in Chinese),2001,21(3):9 - 13.
[3]杨又陵,赵根模,高国英,等.2001年11月14日昆仑山口J西M8.1地震前的缓慢地震事件,国际地震动态,2003(9):1-4. Yang Y L,Zhao G M,Gao G Y,et al.The Slow Earthquake Event Occurring Before West to Kunlun Mountain Pass Earthquake of Ms 8.11 on November 14,2001.Recent Developments in World Seismology(in Chinese),2003,9,1-4.
[4]郝晓光,胡小刚,许厚泽,等.汶川大地震前的重力扰动,大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(3):129-131. Hao X G,Hu XG,Xu H 7.,et al.Gravity disturbance before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake.Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2008,28(3):129-131.
[5]郝晓光,胡小刚.宽带地震仪资料证实汶川大地震“震前重力扰动”,地球物理学进展,2008,23(4):1332-1335. Hao X G,Hu X G.Disturbance before the Wenchuan earthquake by broadband seismometer.Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese),2008,23(4):1332-1335.
[6]胡小刚,郝晓光.汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探,地球物理学报,2008,51(6):1726-1734. Hu X G,HaoX G.The short-term anomalies detected by broadband seismographs before the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese), 2008,51(6):1726-1734.
[7]张雁滨,蒋骏,廖盈春,等.宽频带地震计及倾斜、重力仪对长周期波动信号的综合观测,地震学报,2008,30(6):626-633. Zhang Y B,Jiang J,Liao Y C,et al.Joint observation of long period seismic signals with broad band seismometer,tiltmeter and gravimeter.Acta Seismologica Sinica,(in Chinese),2008, 30(6):626-633.
[8]傅容珊,万柯松,崇加军,等.地震前兆还是其它因素?——与“汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探”作者商榷,地球物理学报,2009,52(2):584-589. Fu R S.Wan K S,Chong J J,et al.Earthquake auspice or other factor?—Discuss with authors of the paper "The short-term anomalies delected by broadband seismographs before the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China ".Chinese J. Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2):584-589.
[9]Longuet-Higgins MS.A theory of origin of microseisms,Philos. Trans.R.Soc.London,Ser.A,1950,243,1-35.
[10]Hasselmann K A.A stratistical analysis of the generation of microseisms,Rev.Geophys.,1963(1),177-209.
[11]Haubrich R A,McCamy K,Microseisms:Costa! and pelagic sources,Rev.Geophys.,1969,7(3),539-571.
[12]Bromirski P D,Duennebier F K.The near-coastal microseism spectrum;Spatial and temporal wave climate relationships,]. Geophys.Res.,2002,107(B8 ),2166,doi:10.1029/ 2001JB000265.
[13]Bromirski P D,Duennebier F K,Stephen R A.Mid-ocean microseisms,Geochem.Geophys.Geosyst.,2005,6,Q04009, doi:10.1029/2004GC000768.
[14]Gerstoft P,Tanimoto T.A year of microseisms in southern California,Geophys.Res.Lett.,2007,34,L20304,doi:10. 1029/2007GL031091.
[15]Tanimoto T.Excitation of normal modes by nonlinear interaction of ocean waves,Geophys.J.Int.,2007,168,571- 582.
[16]Aster R C,McNamara D E,Bromirski P D.Multidecadal climate-induced variability in microseisms.Seismological Research Letters,2008,79(2),194-202.
[17]胡小刚,郝晓光.台风Rammasun和台风LingLing对汶川大地震和昆仑山大地震“震前扰动”影响的分析,地球物理学报2009,52(5):1363-1375. Hu X G,Hao X G.An analysis of the influences of typhoon Rammasun and LingLing on anomaly tremors before the great Wenchuan and Kunlunshan earthquakes.Chinese J.Geophys. (in Chinese),2009,52(5):1363-1375.
[18]胡小刚,郝晓光,薛秀秀.汶川大地震前“非台风扰动”现象的研究,地球物理学报,2010,53(12):2875-2886. Hu X G,Hao X G,Xue X X.The analysis of non-typhooninduced microseisms before the 2008 great Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(12): 2875-2886.
[19]胡小刚,郝晓光.2009年3月19日Mw7.6级汤加大地震的“震前扰动”现象,地球物理学进展2009,24(3):866--870. Hu X G,Hao X G.Observation of fore-seismic disturbance of the Mw7.6 Tonga earthquake(2009/03/19).Progress in GeophysicsGn Chinese),2009,24(3):866-870.
[20]胡小刚,薛秀秀,郝晓光.IRIS台网地震仪资料出现2010/01/ 12海地大地震“震前扰动现象”,地球物理学进展,2010,25 (1):134-136. Hu X G,Xue X X,Hao X G.Observation of microseism in IRIS records before the 2010/01/12 Haiti earthquake. Progress in Geophysics,(in Chinese),2010,25(1):134 - 136.
[21]郝晓光,胡小刚.汶川大地震“震前扰动”存在“第三类脉动”吗?地球物理学进展,2009,24(4):1213-1215. Hao X G,Hu X G.Are "third microseisms" in anomalous tremor before the great Wenchuan earthquake? Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2009,24(4):1213-1215.
[22]吴琼,胡小刚,郝晓光,滕云田.莲花等三台风的地磁效应与“第三类脉动”有关吗?地球物理学进展,2011,26(4):1186 -1196. Wu Q,Hu X G,Hao X G,Teng Y T.Is the " Third microseisms"related with the geomagnetic effect of Linfa and other three typhoons? Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese), 2011,26(4):1186-1196.
[23]Hao Xiaoguang,Hu Xiaogang.The analysis of microseism prior to the Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May 2008,Sichuan, China.2009 AGU Fall Meeting,14 - 18 December,San Francisco,California.
[24]Hao Xiaoguang,Hu Xiaogang.Anomalous microseism before the 2010 Haiti earthquake.2020 AGU Meeting of the Americas,8 -13 August 2010,Iguazu Falls,Brazil.
[25]郝晓光,胡小刚.强震短临预报研究战略思想探讨,地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):456-461. Hao X G,Hu X G.Discussion on Strategic Thinking for Short-term Prediction of Great Earthquakes.Progress in Geophysies(in Chinese),2011,26(2):456 - 461.
[26]Velasco A A,Hernandez A,Parsons S T,et al.Global ubiquity of dynamic earthquake triggering,Nature Geoscience,2008,1, 375-379.
[27]Rubenstein J L,et al.Non-volcanic tremor driven by large transient shear stresses.Nature 2007,448,579 - 582.
[28]Gomberg J,Rubinstein J L,et al.Widespread triggering of nonvolcanic tremor in California.Science,2008,319,173.
[2]郝晓光,许厚泽,郝兴华,等.重力高频扰动与地震,地壳形变与地震,2001,21(3):9-13. Hao X G,Xu H Z,Hao X H,et al.High-FrequencyGrravity Disturbance before Earthquakes.Crustal Deformation and Earthquake(in Chinese),2001,21(3):9 - 13.
[3]杨又陵,赵根模,高国英,等.2001年11月14日昆仑山口J西M8.1地震前的缓慢地震事件,国际地震动态,2003(9):1-4. Yang Y L,Zhao G M,Gao G Y,et al.The Slow Earthquake Event Occurring Before West to Kunlun Mountain Pass Earthquake of Ms 8.11 on November 14,2001.Recent Developments in World Seismology(in Chinese),2003,9,1-4.
[4]郝晓光,胡小刚,许厚泽,等.汶川大地震前的重力扰动,大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(3):129-131. Hao X G,Hu XG,Xu H 7.,et al.Gravity disturbance before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake.Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics(in Chinese),2008,28(3):129-131.
[5]郝晓光,胡小刚.宽带地震仪资料证实汶川大地震“震前重力扰动”,地球物理学进展,2008,23(4):1332-1335. Hao X G,Hu X G.Disturbance before the Wenchuan earthquake by broadband seismometer.Progress in Geophysics (in Chinese),2008,23(4):1332-1335.
[6]胡小刚,郝晓光.汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探,地球物理学报,2008,51(6):1726-1734. Hu X G,HaoX G.The short-term anomalies detected by broadband seismographs before the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese), 2008,51(6):1726-1734.
[7]张雁滨,蒋骏,廖盈春,等.宽频带地震计及倾斜、重力仪对长周期波动信号的综合观测,地震学报,2008,30(6):626-633. Zhang Y B,Jiang J,Liao Y C,et al.Joint observation of long period seismic signals with broad band seismometer,tiltmeter and gravimeter.Acta Seismologica Sinica,(in Chinese),2008, 30(6):626-633.
[8]傅容珊,万柯松,崇加军,等.地震前兆还是其它因素?——与“汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探”作者商榷,地球物理学报,2009,52(2):584-589. Fu R S.Wan K S,Chong J J,et al.Earthquake auspice or other factor?—Discuss with authors of the paper "The short-term anomalies delected by broadband seismographs before the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China ".Chinese J. Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2):584-589.
[9]Longuet-Higgins MS.A theory of origin of microseisms,Philos. Trans.R.Soc.London,Ser.A,1950,243,1-35.
[10]Hasselmann K A.A stratistical analysis of the generation of microseisms,Rev.Geophys.,1963(1),177-209.
[11]Haubrich R A,McCamy K,Microseisms:Costa! and pelagic sources,Rev.Geophys.,1969,7(3),539-571.
[12]Bromirski P D,Duennebier F K.The near-coastal microseism spectrum;Spatial and temporal wave climate relationships,]. Geophys.Res.,2002,107(B8 ),2166,doi:10.1029/ 2001JB000265.
[13]Bromirski P D,Duennebier F K,Stephen R A.Mid-ocean microseisms,Geochem.Geophys.Geosyst.,2005,6,Q04009, doi:10.1029/2004GC000768.
[14]Gerstoft P,Tanimoto T.A year of microseisms in southern California,Geophys.Res.Lett.,2007,34,L20304,doi:10. 1029/2007GL031091.
[15]Tanimoto T.Excitation of normal modes by nonlinear interaction of ocean waves,Geophys.J.Int.,2007,168,571- 582.
[16]Aster R C,McNamara D E,Bromirski P D.Multidecadal climate-induced variability in microseisms.Seismological Research Letters,2008,79(2),194-202.
[17]胡小刚,郝晓光.台风Rammasun和台风LingLing对汶川大地震和昆仑山大地震“震前扰动”影响的分析,地球物理学报2009,52(5):1363-1375. Hu X G,Hao X G.An analysis of the influences of typhoon Rammasun and LingLing on anomaly tremors before the great Wenchuan and Kunlunshan earthquakes.Chinese J.Geophys. (in Chinese),2009,52(5):1363-1375.
[18]胡小刚,郝晓光,薛秀秀.汶川大地震前“非台风扰动”现象的研究,地球物理学报,2010,53(12):2875-2886. Hu X G,Hao X G,Xue X X.The analysis of non-typhooninduced microseisms before the 2008 great Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(12): 2875-2886.
[19]胡小刚,郝晓光.2009年3月19日Mw7.6级汤加大地震的“震前扰动”现象,地球物理学进展2009,24(3):866--870. Hu X G,Hao X G.Observation of fore-seismic disturbance of the Mw7.6 Tonga earthquake(2009/03/19).Progress in GeophysicsGn Chinese),2009,24(3):866-870.
[20]胡小刚,薛秀秀,郝晓光.IRIS台网地震仪资料出现2010/01/ 12海地大地震“震前扰动现象”,地球物理学进展,2010,25 (1):134-136. Hu X G,Xue X X,Hao X G.Observation of microseism in IRIS records before the 2010/01/12 Haiti earthquake. Progress in Geophysics,(in Chinese),2010,25(1):134 - 136.
[21]郝晓光,胡小刚.汶川大地震“震前扰动”存在“第三类脉动”吗?地球物理学进展,2009,24(4):1213-1215. Hao X G,Hu X G.Are "third microseisms" in anomalous tremor before the great Wenchuan earthquake? Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2009,24(4):1213-1215.
[22]吴琼,胡小刚,郝晓光,滕云田.莲花等三台风的地磁效应与“第三类脉动”有关吗?地球物理学进展,2011,26(4):1186 -1196. Wu Q,Hu X G,Hao X G,Teng Y T.Is the " Third microseisms"related with the geomagnetic effect of Linfa and other three typhoons? Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese), 2011,26(4):1186-1196.
[23]Hao Xiaoguang,Hu Xiaogang.The analysis of microseism prior to the Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May 2008,Sichuan, China.2009 AGU Fall Meeting,14 - 18 December,San Francisco,California.
[24]Hao Xiaoguang,Hu Xiaogang.Anomalous microseism before the 2010 Haiti earthquake.2020 AGU Meeting of the Americas,8 -13 August 2010,Iguazu Falls,Brazil.
[25]郝晓光,胡小刚.强震短临预报研究战略思想探讨,地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):456-461. Hao X G,Hu X G.Discussion on Strategic Thinking for Short-term Prediction of Great Earthquakes.Progress in Geophysies(in Chinese),2011,26(2):456 - 461.
[26]Velasco A A,Hernandez A,Parsons S T,et al.Global ubiquity of dynamic earthquake triggering,Nature Geoscience,2008,1, 375-379.
[27]Rubenstein J L,et al.Non-volcanic tremor driven by large transient shear stresses.Nature 2007,448,579 - 582.
[28]Gomberg J,Rubinstein J L,et al.Widespread triggering of nonvolcanic tremor in California.Science,2008,319,173.
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