中国大陆8级大震有序网络结构及其预测研究
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摘要
中国是一个多地震的国家,1303—2011年的700多年间,中国大陆共发生M≥8大震23次,呈现出显著的自组织有序性,其主要有序值为252～258a,108～112a,94～98a,44～47a,24～25a,16～19a和11～14a.以翁文波信息预测理论为指导,将有序性分析与复杂网络技术相结合,努力探索具有中国特色自主创新的大震中长期预测方法,构建了中国大陆8级大震信息有序网络结构.在总结21世纪初中国大陆西部所发生的2次8级大震(2001年昆仑山8.1级大震、2008年汶川8.0级大震)预测研究的基础上,根据所建网络结构对中国大陆未来8级大震提出中长期预测意见:2022、2026、2045、2065年前后仍有可能发生M≥8大震.研究结果表明,大震是可以预测的,大震形成的机制具有网络特性.有序网络方法是大震中长期跨越式预测的有效方法.
China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the world.A total of 23 M≥8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China from 1303 to 2011.The seismic activity of M≥8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness.The main ordered values are 252-258 a,108-112 a,94-98 a,44-47 a,2425 a,16-19 a and 11-14 a.According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we build the informational ordered network structure of M≥8 great earthquakes in Mainland China,and summarize the prediction research on two great earthquakes(the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1 and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake) during the beginning of the 21st century in western Mainland China.At last,we present new prediction opinion that the future M≥8 great earthquakes will probably occur in 2022,2026,2045 and 2065 pre and post in Mainland China.The results show that an M≥8 great earthquake can be predicted and the network feature is the formation mechanism of great earthquakes.Ordered network method produces satisfactory results in moderate and long term prediction for M≥8 great earthquakes.
China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the world.A total of 23 M≥8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China from 1303 to 2011.The seismic activity of M≥8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness.The main ordered values are 252-258 a,108-112 a,94-98 a,44-47 a,2425 a,16-19 a and 11-14 a.According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we build the informational ordered network structure of M≥8 great earthquakes in Mainland China,and summarize the prediction research on two great earthquakes(the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1 and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake) during the beginning of the 21st century in western Mainland China.At last,we present new prediction opinion that the future M≥8 great earthquakes will probably occur in 2022,2026,2045 and 2065 pre and post in Mainland China.The results show that an M≥8 great earthquake can be predicted and the network feature is the formation mechanism of great earthquakes.Ordered network method produces satisfactory results in moderate and long term prediction for M≥8 great earthquakes.
引文
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[15]徐道一.大地震发生的网络性质:兼论有关地震预测的争论[J].地学前缘,2001,8(2):211-216XU Daoyi.The network features of large earthquake occurrence and some words on the debate of earthquake prediction[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2001,8(2):211-216
[16]徐道一.自组织网络与灾害链研究[C]∥苏门答腊地震海啸影响中国华南天气的初步研究:中国首届灾害链学术研讨会论文集.北京:气象出版社,2007:175-179XU Daoyi.Research on self-organization network and disaster chains[C]∥Commentaries on the First Disaster Chains Seminar in China.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007:175-179
[17]徐道一.1303年山西洪洞8级大地震的时间有序性特征[J].山西地震,2003(3):34-36XU Daoyi.Characteristics on time order of the1303Hongtong,Shanxi,stong earthquake of M8[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,2003(3):34-36
[18]XU Daoyi,MEN Kepei,DENG Zhihui,Self-organized ordering of earthquakes(M≥8)in Mainland China[J].Engineering Sciences,2010,8(4):13-17
[19]门可佩.中国大陆东西部地区强震的有序网络结构研究[C]∥中国天灾信息预测研究进展:继承弘扬翁文波学术思想掠影.北京:石油工业出版社,2004:163-168MEN Kepei.Study on ordered network structures of strong earthquakes and prediction in the eastern and western regions of China continent[C]∥Progress in Natural Disaster of Informational Forecasting of China.Beijing:Petroleu Industry Press,2004:163-168
[20]门可佩.2001年昆仑山8.1级大震及其趋势研究[J].地震,2002,22(3):39-44MEN Kepei.Study on Kunlunshan M8.1earthquake in2001and the trend of strong earthquakes[J].Earthquake,2002,22(3):39-44
[21]门可佩.青藏高原北部地区7级强震的有序网络特征及其预测研究[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(4):765-771MEN Kepei.Orderly network feature of M≥7earthquakes and its prediction in the northern part of QinghaiXizang plateau[J].Progress in Geophysics,2003,18(4):765-771
[22]门可佩.青藏北块M≥7强震有序网络结构与汶川8级大震预测回顾[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):82-88MEN Kepei.Orderly network structure of M≥7strong earthquakes in the north of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0earthquake[J].China Engineering Sciences,2009,11(6):82-88
[23]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984WENG Wenbo.Fundamentals of forecasting theory[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1984
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