行星位置与全球性灾害事件时间预测模拟
|
摘要
根据某类事件发生时的行星空间位置分布,可以从理论上建立该事件的时间预测模型。指出这一方法有可能通过计时历史资料的归算,提供未来灾害事件发生时刻的预测信息。以地震为例,给出了该方法的具体思路。处理了1900-1996年中国震级6.5及以上级的311次地震资料,据此:(1)统计得出了历史时期的地震时间与行星位置分布的相关性;(2)利用这种相关性并以7星组合作1997-2010年间6.5及以上级地震的模拟预测,给出了6个可能的危险日期;(3)采用1997年1月至2006年6月的35次M6.5级地震对模型作检验,表明总计14种单星和组合模型中日、月、水星、金星和天王星等五种模型稍好,而冥王星和海王星模型则不理想。(4)指出该模型不适用于较大区域,因其难以提供较精确的地点信息。此外,预测精度还与步长和确定的危险日期的数量有关。
A theoretical modeling for disaster time prediction can be acquired according to the distributions of planetary positions when one kind of global disaster occurred.So forecasting the occurrence time for future disaster is possible after processing its historical timed data.As an example,now we limit to earthquake and give out a specific method.In this paper the data for 311 earthguakes with magnitude equal to and larger than 6.5 in China from 1900 through 1996 are gathered.And we investigated the statistical correlations between historical quake times and the distribution of planetary positions,especially the apparent ecliptic longitude.The testing time prediction for future possible M≥6.5 quake from 1997 to 2010 is inferred with use of these relations and Seven Bodies Model which is assembled by the sun,the moon,Mercury,Venus,Mars,Jupiter,and Saturn,and the six possible earthquake-dates are predicted.The checks are given with 35 cases of real M≥6.5 earthquakes from Jan.1997 to Jun.2006.The result shows that in all the 14 models,either single body or body groups,five models are a little better,they are the sun,the moon,Mercury,Venus and Uranus,but the models of Pluto and Neptune do not match well.And it is also pointed out that there exist some shortcomings of this model in application to larger regions as lack of the ability to ascertain the information of quake location.Furthermore,the accuracy of the model is influenced by the step length of prediction and the numbers of predicted possible disaster′s dates.
A theoretical modeling for disaster time prediction can be acquired according to the distributions of planetary positions when one kind of global disaster occurred.So forecasting the occurrence time for future disaster is possible after processing its historical timed data.As an example,now we limit to earthquake and give out a specific method.In this paper the data for 311 earthguakes with magnitude equal to and larger than 6.5 in China from 1900 through 1996 are gathered.And we investigated the statistical correlations between historical quake times and the distribution of planetary positions,especially the apparent ecliptic longitude.The testing time prediction for future possible M≥6.5 quake from 1997 to 2010 is inferred with use of these relations and Seven Bodies Model which is assembled by the sun,the moon,Mercury,Venus,Mars,Jupiter,and Saturn,and the six possible earthquake-dates are predicted.The checks are given with 35 cases of real M≥6.5 earthquakes from Jan.1997 to Jun.2006.The result shows that in all the 14 models,either single body or body groups,five models are a little better,they are the sun,the moon,Mercury,Venus and Uranus,but the models of Pluto and Neptune do not match well.And it is also pointed out that there exist some shortcomings of this model in application to larger regions as lack of the ability to ascertain the information of quake location.Furthermore,the accuracy of the model is influenced by the step length of prediction and the numbers of predicted possible disaster′s dates.
引文
[1]张国栋,韩延本,赵复垣.从天文观测提取地震前兆信息[J].地震学报,2002,24(1):75-81.
[2]Anderson D L.Earthquakes and the rotation of the Earth[J].Science,1974,186(4158):49-50.
[3]季洪钦,尤淑如.地球自转不均匀性与全球中震、深震能量的相关分析及其力学关系[J].天文学报,1988,29(4):326-332.
[4]赵铭.地球自转速率变化与中国大陆地震韵律的关系[J].科学通报,1990,35(18):1402-1405.
[5]周永宏,郑大伟.地球自转变化与中国大陆地震活动关系的初步分析[J].上海台年刊,1994,15:1-8.
[6]Gu Zhen-Nian.The Study of Excitation of the Earthquake to Earth`s Rotation[J].Earth,Moon and Planets,1995,74(1):35-47.
[7]Zharov V E.Connection of the Earth's Rotation with the Atmospheric Angular Momentum and the Strongest Earthquake[J].Astronomical and As-trophysical Transactions,1996,9,317-327.
[8]Soldati G,Spada G.Large earthquakes and Earth rotation:The role of mantle relaxation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1999,26(7):911-914.
[9]蒋窈窕.全国历史地震与太阳黑子活动的相关性[M]//.天文与自然灾害编委会.天文与自然灾害.北京:地震出版社,1991.
[10]韩延本,赵娟,李志安.日月引潮力变化与地震发生时间的相关研究[M]//.《特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法》编委会.特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法.北京:科学出版社,2002.
[11]W.-H.IP Chinese records on the correlation of heliocentric planetary alignments and earthquake activities[J].Icarus,1976,29(3):435-436.
[12]徐道一,郑文振,安振声,孙惠文.天体运行与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[13]任振球.全球变化[M].北京:科学出版社,1990.
[14]胡辉,赵洪声,李晓明,王锐.云南大地震与天体位置关系初析[M]//,天文与自然灾害编委会.天文与自然灾害.北京:地震出版社,1991:127-129.
[15]李勇.1900-1980年全球六级以上地震的频度和能量[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2):7-12.
[16]李勇.用太阳系主要天体的位置建立特大地震的时间预测模型[J].天文学报,2003,44(4):363-368.
[17]李勇.太阳系天体位置、固体潮与地震预测[J].中国科学G辑,2005,35(3):327-336.
[2]Anderson D L.Earthquakes and the rotation of the Earth[J].Science,1974,186(4158):49-50.
[3]季洪钦,尤淑如.地球自转不均匀性与全球中震、深震能量的相关分析及其力学关系[J].天文学报,1988,29(4):326-332.
[4]赵铭.地球自转速率变化与中国大陆地震韵律的关系[J].科学通报,1990,35(18):1402-1405.
[5]周永宏,郑大伟.地球自转变化与中国大陆地震活动关系的初步分析[J].上海台年刊,1994,15:1-8.
[6]Gu Zhen-Nian.The Study of Excitation of the Earthquake to Earth`s Rotation[J].Earth,Moon and Planets,1995,74(1):35-47.
[7]Zharov V E.Connection of the Earth's Rotation with the Atmospheric Angular Momentum and the Strongest Earthquake[J].Astronomical and As-trophysical Transactions,1996,9,317-327.
[8]Soldati G,Spada G.Large earthquakes and Earth rotation:The role of mantle relaxation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1999,26(7):911-914.
[9]蒋窈窕.全国历史地震与太阳黑子活动的相关性[M]//.天文与自然灾害编委会.天文与自然灾害.北京:地震出版社,1991.
[10]韩延本,赵娟,李志安.日月引潮力变化与地震发生时间的相关研究[M]//.《特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法》编委会.特大自然灾害预测的新途径和新方法.北京:科学出版社,2002.
[11]W.-H.IP Chinese records on the correlation of heliocentric planetary alignments and earthquake activities[J].Icarus,1976,29(3):435-436.
[12]徐道一,郑文振,安振声,孙惠文.天体运行与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[13]任振球.全球变化[M].北京:科学出版社,1990.
[14]胡辉,赵洪声,李晓明,王锐.云南大地震与天体位置关系初析[M]//,天文与自然灾害编委会.天文与自然灾害.北京:地震出版社,1991:127-129.
[15]李勇.1900-1980年全球六级以上地震的频度和能量[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(2):7-12.
[16]李勇.用太阳系主要天体的位置建立特大地震的时间预测模型[J].天文学报,2003,44(4):363-368.
[17]李勇.太阳系天体位置、固体潮与地震预测[J].中国科学G辑,2005,35(3):327-336.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心